Answering that knock.

A CONVERSATION WITH A NEIGHBOR

When Did God’s Kingdom Begin Ruling? (Part 1)

 

 

The following is a typical conversation that one of Jehovah’s Witnesses might have with a neighbor. Let us imagine that a Witness named Cameron has come to the home of a man named Jon.

“KEEP SEARCHING” FOR UNDERSTANDING

Cameron: Jon, I’ve really enjoyed the regular discussions we’ve been having about the Bible. * The last time we spoke, you raised a question about God’s Kingdom. You asked why Jehovah’s Witnesses believe that the Kingdom began ruling in the year 1914.

Jon: Yes, I was reading one of your publications, and it said that God’s Kingdom started ruling in 1914. That made me curious because you say that you base all of your beliefs on the Bible.

Cameron: That’s right, we do.

Jon: Well, I’ve read through the Bible myself. But I can’t remember ever seeing a passage that mentioned the year 1914. So I went to an online Bible and did a search for “1914.” Sure enough, the search engine said: “0 results.”

Cameron: I have to commend you on two counts, Jon. First, that you’ve read through the entire Bible. You must really love God’s Word.

Jon: I do. There’s nothing like it.

Cameron: I agree. Second, I want to commend you for turning to the Bible when trying to find an answer to your question. You did exactly what the Bible encourages us to do: “Keep searching” for understanding. * It’s good that you are putting forth effort like that.

Jon: Thank you. I do want to keep learning. In fact, I dug around a little more and found some information about 1914 in this book we’ve been studying. It mentions a dream that a king had—it was about a big tree that was cut down and then grew back or something like that.

Cameron: Ah, yes. That’s the prophecy recorded in Daniel chapter 4. It involves a dream that King Nebuchadnezzar of Babylon had.

Jon: Yes, that’s the one. I read the prophecy over and over. But to be honest, I still don’t see what it has to do with God’s Kingdom or the year 1914.

Cameron: Actually, Jon, even the prophet Daniel didn’t understand the full meaning of what he was inspired to record!

Jon: Really?

Cameron: Yes. Here at Daniel 12:8, he says: “Now as for me, I heard, but I could not understand.”

Jon: I’m not the only one then. That makes me feel a little better.

Cameron: The truth is, Daniel didn’t understand because it was not yet God’s time for humans to discern completely the meaning of the prophecies in the book of Daniel. But now, in our time, we can understand them more fully.

Jon: Why do you say that?

Cameron: Well, notice what we read in the very next verse. Daniel 12:9 says: “The words are to be kept secret and sealed up until the time of the end.” So these prophecies would only be understood much later, during “the time of the end.” And as we will soon discuss in our Bible study, all evidence indicates that we are now living in that time period. *

Jon: So, can you explain the prophecy in Daniel to me?

Cameron: I’ll do my best.

NEBUCHADNEZZAR’S DREAM

Cameron: To begin, let me briefly summarize what King Nebuchadnezzar saw in his dream. Then we can talk about what it means.

Jon: OK.

Cameron: In the dream, Nebuchadnezzar saw an enormous tree that reached all the way to heaven. Then he heard God’s messenger command that the tree be cut down. However, God said for its rootstock to be left in the ground. After a period of “seven times,” the tree would grow again. * This prophecy initially applied to King Nebuchadnezzar himself. Although he was a prominent king—like the tree that reached clear to heaven—he was cut down for “seven times.” Do you remember what happened?

Jon: No, I don’t recall.

Cameron: That’s all right. The Bible shows that Nebuchadnezzar lost his sanity, evidently for seven years. During that time, he was unable to rule as king. But at the end of the seven times, Nebuchadnezzar regained his sanity and started ruling again. *

Jon: OK, I’m with you so far. But what does all of this have to do with God’s Kingdom and the year 1914?

Cameron: In a nutshell, this prophecy has two fulfillments. The first fulfillment happened when King Nebuchadnezzar’s rulership was interrupted. The second fulfillment involved an interruption of God’s rulership. So it is this second fulfillment that is related to God’s Kingdom.

Jon: How do you know that the prophecy has a second fulfillment in regard to God’s Kingdom?

Cameron: For one thing, we find an indication in the prophecy itself. According to Daniel 4:17, the prophecy was given “so that people living may know that the Most High is Ruler in the kingdom of mankind and that he gives it to whomever he wants.” Did you notice the expression “the kingdom of mankind”?

Jon: Yes, it says that “the Most High is Ruler in the kingdom of mankind.”

Cameron: Right. Who do you suppose is “the Most High”?

Jon: I guess that’s talking about God.

Cameron: Correct. So that tells us that this prophecy is not only about Nebuchadnezzar. It also involves “the kingdom of mankind”—that is, God’s rulership over mankind. And that makes sense when we look at the prophecy in its context.

Jon: What do you mean?

THE BOOK’S CENTRAL THEME

Cameron: Time and again, the Bible book of Daniel develops a central theme. It keeps pointing forward to the establishment of God’s Kingdom under the rulership of his Son, Jesus. For example, let’s turn back a couple of chapters. Would you please read Daniel 2:44?

Jon: OK. It says: “In the days of those kings the God of heaven will set up a kingdom that will never be destroyed. And this kingdom will not be passed on to any other people. It will crush and put an end to all these kingdoms, and it alone will stand forever.”

Cameron: Thank you. Would you say that this verse sounds as if it is referring to God’s Kingdom?

Jon: Hmm. I’m not sure.

Cameron: Well, notice that it says that this Kingdom “will stand forever.” That’s true of God’s Kingdom, but it’s not something that we can say of any human government, can we?

Jon: No, I guess not.

Cameron: Here’s another prophecy in the book of Daniel that points to God’s Kingdom. It’s the prophecy recorded at Daniel 7:13, 14. Regarding a future ruler, the prophecy says: “To him there were given rulership, honor, and a kingdom, that the peoples, nations, and language groups should all serve him. His rulership is an everlasting rulership that will not pass away, and his kingdom will not be destroyed.” Is there anything in this prophecy that sounds familiar?

Jon: It mentions a kingdom.

Cameron: That’s right. And not just any kingdom. Notice it says that this Kingdom would have authority over “peoples, nations, and language groups.” In other words, this Kingdom would have global rulership.

Jon: I didn’t pick up on that, but you’re right. It does say that.

Cameron: Also, notice what else the prophecy says: “His rulership is an everlasting rulership that will not pass away, and his kingdom will not be destroyed.” That sounds a lot like the prophecy we just read at Daniel 2:44, doesn’t it?

Jon: Yes, it does.

Cameron: Let’s briefly review what we’ve discussed so far. The prophecy in Daniel chapter 4 was given so that people would know that “the Most High is Ruler in the kingdom of mankind.” This in itself indicates that the prophecy has a bigger fulfillment than just the one involving Nebuchadnezzar. And throughout the book of Daniel, we find prophecies about the establishment of God’s Kingdom under the rulership of his Son. Do you think it’s reasonable to conclude, then, that this prophecy in Daniel chapter 4 also has something to do with God’s Kingdom?

Jon: I suppose so. But I still don’t see the connection with 1914.

“LET SEVEN TIMES PASS”

Cameron: Well, let’s go back to King Nebuchadnezzar. He was represented by the tree in the first fulfillment of the prophecy. His rulership was interrupted when the tree was chopped down and left for seven times—that is, when he lost his sanity for a period of time. That period of seven times ended when Nebuchadnezzar regained his sanity and resumed his rulership. In the second fulfillment of the prophecy, God’s rulership would be interrupted for a period of time—but not because of any deficiency on God’s part.

Jon: What do you mean?

Cameron: In Bible times, the Israelite kings who ruled in Jerusalem were said to sit on “Jehovah’s throne.” * They represented God in governing his people. So the rulership of those kings was really an expression of God’s rulership. In time, however, most of those kings became disobedient to God and most of their subjects followed suit. Because of the Israelites’ disobedience, God allowed them to be conquered by the Babylonians in 607 B.C.E. From that time on, no more kings represented Jehovah in Jerusalem. In that sense, then, God’s rulership was interrupted. Are you with me so far?

Jon: I think so.

Cameron: So 607 B.C.E. marked the beginning of the seven times, or the period when God’s rulership would be interrupted. At the end of the seven times, God would install a new ruler to represent Him—this time, someone in heaven. That’s when the other prophecies we read about in Daniel would be fulfilled. So the big question is: When did the seven times end? If we can answer that question, we will know when God’s Kingdom began ruling.

Jon: I see. Let me guess—the seven times ended in 1914?

Cameron: Exactly! You got it.

Jon: But how do we know that?

Cameron: Well, during his earthly ministry, Jesus indicated that the seven times had not yet ended. * So they must be a very long period of time. The seven times started hundreds of years before Jesus came to earth, and they continued until sometime after he returned to heaven. Remember, too, that the meaning of the prophecies in Daniel was not to become clear until “the time of the end.” * Interestingly, during the late 1800’s, sincere students of the Bible were moved to examine this and other prophecies very carefully. They began to discern that the seven times would end in the year 1914. And major world events since then confirm that 1914 was indeed the year that God’s Kingdom began ruling in heaven. It was the year when this world entered its last days, or the time of the end. Now, I know this is probably a lot to digest . . .

Jon: Yes. I’m definitely going to have to go over this again to get it all straight.

Cameron: Don’t worry. It took me a while to see how all the pieces fit together too. But at the very least, I hope our discussion has helped you to see that Jehovah’s Witnesses do base their beliefs about the Kingdom on the Bible.

Jon: For sure. I’ve always been impressed with how you rely on the Bible for your beliefs.

Cameron: And I can see that you have a similar desire. As I said, this is a lot to take in all at once. You probably still have some questions. For example, we’ve established that the seven times relate to God’s Kingdom and that they began in 607 B.C.E. But how, exactly, do we know that these seven times ended in 1914? *

Jon: Yes, I’m wondering about that.

Cameron: The Bible itself helps us to determine the precise length of the seven times. Would you like to examine that topic the next time I’m here? *

Jon: That sounds good.

Do you have a particular Bible subject that you have wondered about? Are you curious about any of the beliefs or religious practices of Jehovah’s Witnesses? If so, do not hesitate to ask one of Jehovah’s Witnesses. He or she will be pleased to discuss such matters with you.

On the edge.

So, Michael Behe Was Right After All; What Will the Critics Say Now?

Casey Luskin July 16, 2014 1:30 PM

 

 

 

A new paper in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA has vindicated Michael Behe in one of the central controversies over his 2007 book The Edge of Evolution. Behe already reported here on the paper, which found that multiple mutations, at least two, are required to confer resistance to the drug chloroquine on malaria parasites:

A minimum of two mutations sufficed for (low) CQ transport activity, and as few as four conferred full activity. ... The findings presented here reveal that the minimum requirement for (low) CQ transport activity in both the ET and TD lineages of CQR PfCRT is two mutations.

(Summers et al., "Diverse mutational pathways converge on saturable chloroquine transport via the malaria parasite's chloroquine resistance transporter," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA, Vol. 111: E1759-E1767 (April 29, 2014) (emphasis added).)

Why does it matter? As Dr. Behe explained, this was a major point of contention among critics of his book. They claimed that Behe mistakenly thought chloroquine resistance required multiple simultaneous mutations, when in actuality it could arise through sequential mutations, each conferring a successively greater resistance-advantage. It can no longer be denied that the critics were dead wrong: chloroquine resistance does not arise at all until two mutations or more are present.

(To be precise, the paper found that the two minimum mutations break down as follows: one specific mutation is needed, plus a second mutation that's also needed which can occur in one of two locations. As the paper puts it, "Given that all known PfCRT haplotypes contain either N75E/D or N326D, these results indicate that PfCRT acquires the ability to transport CQ via one of two main mutational routes, both of which entail the introduction of K76T plus the replacement of an asparagine (N75 or N326) with an acidic residue.")

From the Beginning, the Critics Mischaracterized Behe

The critics were wrong from the outset. Behe's argument in The Edge of Evolution didn't depend on whether chloroquine resistance arose in a stepwise manner, or only after multiple mutations accumulated. His argument was based upon an empirically observed data point from public health studies which found that chloroquine resistance arose in about 1 in every 10²⁰ organisms. He had a strong citation for this empirical observation: Nicholas White, "Antimalarial Drug Resistance," Journal of Clinical Investigation, Vol. 113: 1084-1092 (2004). He called the mutations (whatever they were) that caused chloroquine resistance a "chloroquine complexity cluster" or CCC. Whatever molecular mechanisms may be behind a CCC, empirical data showed that 10²⁰ cells are required in order to produce one. Behe pointed out that if a trait required the molecular equivalent of two CCC's before providing any advantage, then that would pose major problems for Darwinian evolution.

It's a simple calculation. Behe observed that if 10²⁰ organisms were required to obtain one CCC, then the square of that amount -- 10⁴⁰ organisms -- would be required to evolve a trait that required two CCC's before providing any advantage. However, as Behe observed, a total of only 10⁴⁰ organisms have lived on Earth over the entire history of the planet. As Behe put it:

Recall that the odds against getting two necessary, independent mutations are the multiplied odds for getting each mutation individually. What if a problem arose that required a cluster of mutations that was twice as complicated as a CCC? (Let's call it a double CCC.) For example, what if instead of the several amino acid changes needed for chloroquine resistance in malaria, twice that number were needed? In that case the odds would be that for a CCC times itself. Instead of 10²⁰ cells to solve the evolutionary problem, we would need 10⁴⁰ cells. Workers at the University of Georgia have estimated that about a billion billion trillion (10³⁰) bacterial cells are formed on the earth each and every year. ... If that number has been the same over the entire several-billion-year history of the world, then throughout the course of history there would have been slightly fewer than 10⁴⁰ cells, a bit less than we'd expect to need to get a double CCC. The conclusion, then, is that the odds are slightly against even one double CCC showing up by Darwinian processes in the entire course of life on earth.

(Michael Behe, The Edge of Evolution: The Search for the Limits of Darwinism, p. 135 (Free Press, 2007).)

Behe inferred, based upon the great rarity of a CCC evolving, that it was a trait that probably required multiple mutations. Behe's argument didn't turn on that inference, but it was a reasonable one. Richard Dawkins himself used exactly the same sort of reasoning in other contexts to infer that a trait required multiple mutations to evolve.

Will Ken Miller, Jerry Coyne, Paul Gross, Nick Matzke, Sean Carroll, Richard Dawkins, and PZ Myers Now Apologize to Michael Behe?

Behe's critics misread him as saying that a single CCC necessarily required multiple simultaneous mutations, and castigated Behe for allegedly ignoring the possibility of a single CCC arising via sequential mutations. For example:

• Kenneth Miller: "It would be difficult to imagine a more breathtaking abuse of statistical genetics. Behe obtains his probabilities by considering each mutation as an independent event, ruling out any role for cumulative selection, and requiring evolution to achieve an exact, predetermined result." (Nature, 2007)
• Paul Gross: "Behe assumes simultaneous mutations at two sites in the relevant gene, but there is no such necessity and plenty of evidence that cumulativeness, rather than simultaneity, is the rule. As Nature's reviewer (Kenneth R. Miller) notes, 'It would be difficult to imagine a more breathtaking abuse of statistical genetics.'" (The New Criterion, 2007)


• Jerry Coyne: "Behe requires all of the three or four mutations needed to create such an interaction to arise simultaneously. ... If it looks impossible, this is only because of Behe's bizarre and unrealistic assumption that for a protein-protein interaction to evolve, all mutations must occur simultaneously, because the step-by-step path is not adaptive." (The New Republic, 2007)


• Nick Matzke: "Here is the flabbergasting line of argument. First, Behe admits that CQR evolves naturally, but contends that it requires a highly improbable simultaneous double mutation, occurring in only 1 in 10²⁰ parasites. ... The argument collapses at every step." (Trends In Ecology and Evolution, 2007)


• Sean Carroll: "Behe's main argument rests on the assertion that two or more simultaneous mutations are required for increases in biochemical complexity and that such changes are, except in rare circumstances, beyond the limit of evolution. .. Examples of cumulative selection changing multiple sites in evolving proteins include ... pyrimethamine resistance in malarial parasites (6) -- a notable omission given Behe's extensive discussion of malarial drug resistance. (Science, 2007)


• Richard Dawkins: "If correct, Behe's calculations would at a stroke confound generations of mathematical geneticists, who have repeatedly shown that evolutionary rates are not limited by mutation." (New York Times, 2007)


• And then of course there's PZ Myers. He made much the same criticisms, and also wrote:

  Behe isn't just a crackpot who thinks he has a novel explanation for an evolutionary mechanism -- he's a radical anti-evolutionist extremist who rejects the entire notion of the transformation of species by natural processes. ... Most of the arguments are gussied up versions of the kind of handwaving, ignorant rationalizations you'd get from some pomaded fundagelical Baptist minister who got all his biology from the Bible, not at all what you'd expect from a tenured professor of biochemistry at a good university -- throwing in an occasional technical gloss or mangled anecdote from the literature is only a gloss to fool the rubes.

All these critics were wrong. You get no resistance to chloroquine whatsoever unless at least two mutations are present to begin with. You might be able to get some cumulative selection after that, where successive mutations improve resistance up to a certain point. It is, however, by definition a multimutation feature.

Behe reasonably inferred that chloroquine resistance requires multiple mutations. He was right. His critics misunderstood his argument and thought this inference was a crucial plank in his reasoning. It wasn't. But it now turns out that the position Behe's critics attributed to him, and then railed against, was itself correct. Even a single CCC apparently requires multiple mutations before conferring any advantage. In fact, it's probably very close to the "edge" of evolution that Behe identified in his book.

Is an apology from Behe's critics then forthcoming? In a world where debates were conducted with the goal of discovering truth rather scoring points, it sure ought to be. Unfortunately, I'm not sure we live in that world.

What we'll probably get is nothing more than PZ Myers's concession, offered in the context of the rant quoted above:

Fair enough; if you demand a very specific pair of amino acid changes in specific places in a specific protein, I agree, the odds are going to be very long on theoretical considerations alone, and the empirical evidence supports the claim of improbability for that specific combination.

Well, that's more or less what's required to generate chloroquine resistance. We'll gladly take this -- i.e., simply being proven right -- in lieu of an apology.

Urged to keep faith in the new gods.

Darwin Defenders Love Donald Prothero's Ranting Review of Darwin's Doubt

Casey Luskin July 23, 2013 5:29 PM

 

 

 

Since Nick Matzke at Panda's Thumb published a review of Darwin's Doubt that badly failed to preemptively knock down Stephen Meyer's thesis (see here, here, here, and here), the Internet's Darwin brigade has been hoping for something better. So the folks at Panda's Thumb along with Larry Moran and Jerry Coyne are all excited that geologist Donald Prothero has now posted an Amazon review of Darwin's Doubt. Their readers have eagerly voted up Prothero's post, artfully titled "Stephen Meyer's Fumbling Bumbling Cambrian Amateur Follies," as the "most helpful critical review."

According to Dr. Prothero, Darwin's Doubt is a mess of "fumbling," "bumbling," "distortions," and "blunders." The book is an "amateur" exercise, evidence of Meyer's "folly." It "butchers" the subject matter; was written by a "fool" who is "incompetent," guilty of "ignorance," is in "way over his head" and has a "completely false understanding of the subject." In case that's all a little too subtle for you, Prothero says Meyer argues "dishonestly" and promotes a "flat out lie," a "fundamental lie," and other "lies" to promote a "fairy tale."

Well, what justifies all the ad hominem invectives? Prothero's first complaint is that Meyer's Ph.D. is in the history and philosophy of science which, according to Prothero "give[s] him absolutely no background to talk about molecular evolution." Yes that's a lame objection (it's called the genetic fallacy). Indeed, Meyer's undergraduate degree is in geology and physics, and he worked as a geophysicist for four years, giving him formal training on geology-related issues -- the primary issues Prothero raises in his review. Prothero, however, has already undercut his own complaint, as he admitted:

[Y]ou don't need a Ph.D. to do good science, and not all people who have Ph.D.s are good scientists either. As those of us who have gone through the ordeal know, a Ph.D. only proves that you can survive a grueling test of endurance in doing research and writing a dissertation on a very narrow topic. It doesn't prove that you are smarter than anyone else or more qualified to render an opinion than anyone else. (Evolution: What the Fossils Say and Why It Matters, p. 16)

Prothero's review later complains that creationists "love to flaunt their Ph.D.'s on their book covers." I guess that means Meyer isn't a "creationist," since Prothero failed to notice that Meyer doesn't mention his Ph.D. on the cover of Darwin's Doubt. (And isn't it a bit ironic that Prothero touts his own Ph.D. in his bio over at Skepticblog?)

In any case, Prothero's second complaint is that "Almost every page of this book is riddled by errors of fact or interpretation that could only result from someone writing in a subject way over his head, abetted by the creationist tendency to pluck facts out of context and get their meaning completely backwards." Of course Prothero doesn't list examples from "almost every page," but at least this time he tries to give one. He claims "we now know that the 'explosion' now takes place over an 80 m.y. time framework." Perhaps Prothero didn't notice that Meyer specifically discusses Prothero's own view on this in Darwin's Doubt, and refutes it (see Chapter 3). I refuted the same argument in my recent response to Nick Matzke, which cited numerous articles from the mainstream technical literature stating that the Cambrian explosion took no more than 10 million years.

Prothero's review goes on.

• He states that Meyer "dismisses the Ediacara fauna as not clearly related to living phyla," even though that's in fact the consensus view (see pp. 81-86, and accompanying endnotes).
• He charges that Meyer "confuses crown-groups with stem-groups" (giving no examples), when in fact Meyer explains this distinction (see pp. 419-420).
• He wrongly charges that ID is a "god of the gaps" argument, one that invokes the "supernatural," when of course ID does no such thing, and Meyer rebuts this charge decisively in chapters 17 and 19 of Signature in the Cell.
• He bizarrely misrepresents Meyer as saying Niles Eldredge and Stephen Jay Gould "are arguing that evolution doesn't occur" when Meyer said absolutely nothing of the kind.

Thus, a pattern in Prothero's review is that he puts words in Meyer's mouth, while failing to engage Meyer's actual arguments. As another example, Prothero writes:

Meyer deliberately and dishonestly distorts the story by implying that these soft-bodied animals appeared all at once, when he knows that this is an artifact of preservation. It's just an accident that there are no extraordinary soft-bodied faunas preserved before Chengjiang, so we simply have no fossils demonstrating their true first appearance, which occurred much earlier based on molecular evidence.

Of course Meyer never says the Cambrian animals appeared "all at once." And did Prothero miss Chapter 5 of Darwin's Doubt, where Meyer discusses in great detail the "molecular evidence" mentioned by Prothero, meticulously critiques the molecular clock hypothesis, and clarifies why it doesn't account for the absence of evolutionary precursors in the Precambrian? Or what about Chapters 2 and 3, where Meyer explores the artifact hypothesis in much detail, and makes clear why many Cambrian experts feel it doesn't explain away the Cambrian explosion? As Meyer observes, the Cambrian fossil record is full of soft-bodied organisms, making it difficult to argue that the lack of fossils from a particular group simply means they were too "soft-bodied" to have been preserved (see pp. 62-64). So it's not as if Meyer doesn't engage and discuss these objections in great detail; indeed Meyer cites many authorities to show why these objections don't resolve the Cambrian explosion. Prothero complains a lot, but neither engages with nor mentions any of these discussions.

Prothero asserts that the "rates of evolution during the 'Cambrian explosion' are typical of any adaptive radiation in life's history." Again, did he not read Section II of Darwin's Doubt where Meyer argues that even if there were tens of millions of years available to evolve the Cambrian animals (as Prothero asserts), unguided evolutionary mechanisms still don't work fast enough to produce many of their complex features?

Prothero gives no indication that he has appreciated this section. Indeed his only specific objection is that Meyer supposedly "repeats many of the other classic creationist myths, all long debunked, including the post hoc argument from probability (you can't make the argument that something is unlikely after the fact)." This is a bizarre claim. Does Prothero not realize that many arguments for common ancestry are after-the-fact and probability-based -- e.g., two similar gene sequences are unlikely to have arisen independently, and are thus said to have derived from a common ancestor?

My favorite part of Prothero's review comes when he says, "For a good account by real paleontologists who know what they're doing, see the excellent recent book by Valentine and Erwin, 2013, which gives an accurate view of the 'Cambrian diversification'." Excellent indeed! Prothero is referring to Douglas Erwin and James Valentine's 2013 book, The Cambrian Explosion. Let's look once again at what Erwin and Valentine have to say.

Regarding the length of the Cambrian explosion, they write:

[A] great variety and abundance of animal fossils appear in deposits dating from a geologically brief interval between about 530 to 520 Ma, early in the Cambrian period. During this time, nearly all the major living animal groups (phyla) that have skeletons first appeared as fossils (at least one appeared earlier). Surprisingly, a number of those localities have yielded fossils that preserve details of complex organs at the tissue level, such as eyes, guts, and appendages. In addition, several groups that were entirely soft-bodied and thus could be preserved only under unusual circumstances also first appear in those faunas. Because many of those fossils represent complex groups such as vertebrates (the subgroup of the phylum Chordata to which humans belong) and arthropods, it seems likely that all or nearly all the major phylum-level groups of living animals, including many small soft-bodied groups that we do not actually find as fossils, had appeared by the end of the early Cambrian. This geologically abrupt and spectacular record of early animal life is called the Cambrian explosion. (The Cambrian Explosion, p. 5, emphases added)

So it seems that unlike Prothero, Erwin and Valentine don't believe "the Cambrian explosion" took 80 million years, but rather that it took place during "a geologically brief interval between about 530 to 520 Ma."

Regarding the reality of the Cambrian explosion, Erwin and Valentine write:

Taken at face value, the geologically abrupt appearance of Cambrian faunas with exceptional preservation suggested the possibility that they represented a singular burst of evolution, but the processes and mechanisms were elusive. Although there is truth to some of the objections, they have not diminished the magnitude or importance of the explosion. ... Several lines of evidence are consistent with the reality of the Cambrian explosion. (The Cambrian Explosion, p. 6, emphases added)

So it seems, contra Prothero, that Valentine and Erwin don't believe the Cambrian explosion is merely an "artifact of preservation."

Regarding rates of evolution during the Cambrian explosion, Erwin and Valentine write:

As geologists, we view this tension as a debate over the extent to which uniformitarian explanations can be applied to understand the Cambrian explosion. Uniformitarianism is often described as the concept, most forcefully advocated by Charles Lyell in his Principles of Geology, that "the present is the key to the past" (Lyell 1830). Lyell argued that study of geological processes operating today provides the most scientific approach to understanding past geological events. Uniformitarianism has two components. Methodological uniformitarianism is simply the uncontroversial assumption that scientific laws are invariant through time and space. This concept is so fundamental to all sciences that it generally goes unremarked. Lyell, though, also made a further claim about substantive uniformitarianism: that the rates and processes of geological change have been invariant through time (Gould 1965). Few of Lyell's contemporaries agreed with him (Rudwick 2008). Today, geologists recognize that the rates of geological processes have varied considerably through the history of Earth and that many processes have operated in the past that may not be readily studied today.

...One important concern has been whether the microevolutionary patterns commonly studied in modern organisms by evolutionary biologists are sufficient to understand and explain the events of the Cambrian or whether evolutionary theory needs to be expanded to include a more diverse set of macroevolutionary processes. We strongly hold to the latter position. (The Cambrian Explosion, p. 10, emphases added)

In other words, Erwin and Valentine are skeptical that "uniformitarian explanations can be applied to understand the Cambrian explosion." Why? One reason could be because evolutionary mechanisms we observe in the present day operate at rates that are too slow to explain what took place in the Cambrian period. They are careful not to put it in such plain terms, but that is the essence of their argument. But they do acknowledge that there was an "unusual period of evolutionary activity during the early and middle Cambrian" (p. 6) and later expressly state:

Because the Cambrian explosion involved a significant number of separate lineages, achieving remarkable morphological breadth over millions of years, the Cambrian explosion can be considered an adaptive radiation only by stretching the term beyond all recognition. ... the scale of morphological divergence is wholly incommensurate with that seen in other adaptive radiations. (The Cambrian Explosion, p. 341, emphasis added)

In other words, unlike Prothero, Erwin and Valentine think the Cambrian explosion was a real event, took far less than 80 million years, and involved unique mechanisms that acted more rapidly and at a greater scale than other radiations. These directly contradict Prothero's core claims, but there's more.

Probably the most striking statement by Erwin and Valentine comes when they concede that we lack resolved evolutionary explanations for how the diversity of the Cambrian animals arose, and why these basic body plans haven't changed since that time:

The patterns of disparity observed during the Cambrian pose two unresolved questions. First, what evolutionary process produced the gaps between the morphologies of major clades? Second, why have the morphological boundaries of these body plans remained relatively stable over the past half a billion years? (The Cambrian Explosion, p. 330, emphasis added)

Thus, when recently reviewing Erwin and Valentine's book, the journal Science stated: "The grand puzzle of the Cambrian explosion surely must rank as one of the most important outstanding mysteries in evolutionary biology." Likewise, a 2009 paper in BioEssays stated, "elucidating the materialistic basis of the Cambrian explosion has become more elusive, not less, the more we know about the event itself."

That pretty much nixes Prothero's confident, unbacked assertion that "scientists have explained most of the events of the Early Cambrian and find nothing out of the ordinary that defies scientific explanation."

What more is there to say? I wonder who in the community of Darwin-defenders will have a go at Darwin's Doubt next. The best of luck to them.

How do you like me now?

1Corinthians14:33-38NRSVA"for God is a God not of disorder but of peace.
(As in all the churches of the saints, ³⁴ women should be silent in the churches. For they are not permitted to speak, but should be subordinate, as the law also says. ³⁵ If there is anything they desire to know, let them ask their husbands at home. For it is shameful for a woman to speak in church.^{[d] 36} Or did the word of God originate with you? Or are you the only ones it has reached?)

³⁷ Anyone who claims to be a prophet, or to have spiritual powers, must acknowledge that what I am writing to you is a command of the Lord. ³⁸ Anyone who does not recognize this is not to be recognized."


Church of England General Synod backs women bishops

The Church of England has voted to allow women to become bishops for first time in its history.

Its ruling General Synod gave approval to legislation introducing the change by the required two-thirds majority.

A previous vote in 2012 was backed by the Houses of Bishops and Clergy but blocked by traditionalist lay members.

The Archbishop of Canterbury Justin Welby said he was "delighted" but some opponents said they were unconvinced by the concessions offered to them.

The crucial vote in the House of Laity went 152 in favour, 45 against, and there were five abstentions. In November 2012 the change was derailed by just six votes cast by the lay members.

In the house of Bishops, 37 were in favour, two against, and there was one abstention. The House of Clergy voted 162 in favour, 25 against and there were four abstentions.

Analysis By Robert Pigott, religious affairs correspondent, BBC News

It is hard to exaggerate the significance of today's decision at the York Synod.

It breaks a hitherto unbroken tradition of exclusively male bishops inherited from the first Christians almost 2,000 years ago.

Some Anglicans see it as a "cosmic shift" - arguing that the Church's theology has been changed by its acceptance that men and women are equally eligible to lead and teach Christianity.

With the decision, the Church is acknowledging the importance secular society places on equality, signalling that it wants to end its isolation from the lives of the people it serves.

The legislation leaves traditionalists relying largely on the goodwill and generosity of future women bishops, a source of anxiety for many, but heralded by some as a sign of a new culture of trust and co-operation in the Church.

With the even more divisive issue of sexuality on the horizon, the Church will need that culture as never before.

Before he announced the vote, the Archbishop of York John Sentamu, asked for the result to be met "with restraint and sensitivity". But there was a flurry of cheers when it was announced.

The result overturned centuries of tradition in a Church that has been deeply divided over the issue.

It comes more than 20 years after women were first allowed to become priests. More than one-in-five of priests in the church are now female.

The motion will now go before Parliament's ecclesiastical committee, which examines measures from the Synod. The Synod would then meet again on 17 November to formally declare that women can be bishops.

'Big moment'

The first woman bishop could potentially be appointed by the end of the year.

 

 

The Rev Canon Nikki Arthy said she would welcome the appointment of a woman bishop in Gloucester

The vote followed after almost five hours of debate at the University of York.

The Dean of Salisbury, the Very Reverend June Osborne, said it was a "historic day".

She told the BBC: "I don't think you can overstate the fact that the Church of England allowing women to take up the role of bishop is going to change the Church.

"I think it's going to change our society as well because it's one more step in accepting that women are really and truly equal in spiritual authority, as well as in leadership in society."

The Reverend Lindsay Southern, from the parish of Catterick with Tunstall, North Yorkshire, said "it's been a really long journey but we were so pleased with the graciousness of the Synod debate".

But Lorna Ashworth, a lay member of the Synod who voted against women becoming bishops, suggested it was "not going to be a smooth road ahead".

She said she had no plans to "run away" from the Church but predicted there could be "difficulties" in a number of areas, such as those involving new priests opposed to the changes.

 

Archbishop Welby: "We'll require... a long period of culture change"

Another lay member, Susie Leafe, director of the conservative evangelical group Reform, said she was "very disappointed" by the vote.

"There is still at least a quarter of the Church for whom this package does not provide for their theological convictions," she said.

The motion had the backing of the Archbishop of Canterbury and Prime Minister David Cameron.

Speaking in the debate, Archbishop Welby said Church of England bishops were committed to meeting their needs should the legislation be passed.

It contained concessions for those parishes that continue to object to the appointment of a women bishop - giving them the right to ask for a male alternative and to take disputes to an independent arbitrator.

In a statement issued by Lambeth Palace later, Archbishop Welby said: "Today marks the start of a great adventure of seeking mutual flourishing while still, in some cases disagreeing. The challenge for us will be for the church to model good disagreement and to continue to demonstrate love for those who disagree on theological grounds."

The Archbishop of York said it was a "momentous day".

He said: "Generations of women have served the Lord faithfully in the Church of England for centuries. It is a moment of joy today: the office of Bishop is open to them."

There were celebrations outside the General Synod meeting at York University

Mr Cameron said it was a "great day for the Church and for equality".

And writing on Twitter, Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg praised Archbishop Welby's "leadership" on securing the Yes vote, adding that it was a "big moment" for the Church of England.

Labour leader Ed Miliband said it was "wonderful news".

But Prebendary David Houlding, a member of the Catholic Group on the General Synod, who voted against the legislation, expressed concerns at the potential impact the result could have on relations with the Catholic Church.

The Anglican Communion has the largest Christian denomination in Britain and a presence in more than 160 countries. Women bishops are already in office in a number of provinces including the US, Canada, South Africa, Australia and New Zealand.

On target?

On Paul Nelson Day 2014: The Target Problem

Paul Nelson April 7, 2014 11:04 AM

 

 

 

 

Thanks to P.Z. Myers's annual lampoon of me, I've thought more deeply about the relationship between development and evolution than I ever expected to do.

Moreover, "Paul Nelson Day" provides me with an annual teaching opportunity, because I can link from the comments thread at Pharyngula to the discussion here.

So -- today, kids, I want to introduce you to a great puzzle, one that is central to the unsolved problem of the macroevolution of the animals.

Here's the context you need to know to understand the significance of the puzzle, which we can dub "The Target Problem," for reasons that will become obvious.

Three key points:

(1) A hundred and fifty years after the Origin of Species, the evolutionary pathways from unicellular eukaryotes to any of the animal body plans remain entirely unknown. For details, see Steve Meyer's book Darwin's Doubt.

(2) These missing pathways are often blamed on the absence of "transitional" fossils. While having more fossils might help, the evolutionary mystery -- at its core -- would still not be solved. The Target Problem remains.

(3) The necessary evolutionary pathways will remain hidden as long as one seeks to explain their origin via undirected processes.

Now, (1) is simply the case. If you don't agree that (1) is a fact, choose any of the phyla -- or (Nick M., I'm thinking of you), if you don't like the taxonomic category "phylum," choose any animal species present in the Cambrian -- and send me the evolutionary pathway leading to that group from its unicellular eukaryotic ancestors. (Email me here.)

What's the easiest way to grasp the Target Problem? Start by watching a short YouTube clip, of course, to ground the discussion in a concrete and well-understand example -- namely, the development of the nematode Caenorhabditis elegans.

This clip shows, in four minutes, the twelve-hour developmental trajectory from fertilized egg to hatching worm. As you watch, keep in mind that all these cell divisions, with their asymmetric daughter cells (and their daughters, and theirs, and so forth, right down to the terminally differentiated cells in the hatching worm), must have been constructed by the undirected processes of evolution, if that's what happened at the origin of C. elegans, anyway. John Sulston won the 2002 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine for working out the details of the cell lineages in this species, from fertilized egg to hatching. You can see the famous diagram of the lineage here.

All right -- so what's the Target Problem? It arises when we consider the relationship between "developmental time" and "evolutionary time" (see the figure below). Developmental time we can actually observe and track in C. elegans. That's what you just watched in the YouTube clip, and what Sulston's branching diagram depicts schematically.

Evolutionary time, by contrast, we can't observe or track, but we know what must have happened during evolutionary time, if an undirected process constructed what we can see unfolding in C. elegans. Several things must have occurred, among them:

• an increase in cell number, from one (i.e., in the unknown unicellular eukaryotic ancestors) to approximately one thousand cells in an adult C. elegans.

• the origins of cellular differentiation, namely, specialized cell types, such as cuticle, gut, nerve, etc., cells, with corresponding genetic controls

• the origin of the three-dimensional architecture (body plan) of C. elegans

• the origin of C. elegans sexual reproduction and gametes (eggs and sperm).

And, never to be neglected, the small difficulty of staying alive during the whole of evolutionary time, as required by the Principle of Continuity.

The Target Problem? How to describe functional (and reproductively capable) organisms, which must have existed during evolutionary time, as cell number count goes up, and cellular differentiation increases. We're using C. elegans as our example because we have a complete cell lineage, genome, and lots of other details to ground the discussion, but the Target Problem exists for any other animal species thought to have evolved from a non-animal ancestor.

The Target Problem has never been solved. That's why no one can tell you how the animals evolved from single-celled ancestors.