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Sunday 30 April 2017

Psalms 8-14 American Standard Version.

8)1 O Jehovah, our Lord, How excellent is thy name in all the earth, Who hast set thy glory upon the heavens!

2Out of the mouth of babes and sucklings hast thou established strength, Because of thine adversaries, That thou mightest still the enemy and the avenger.

3When I consider thy heavens, the work of thy fingers, The moon and the stars, which thou hast ordained;

4What is man, that thou art mindful of him? And the son of man, that thou visitest him?

5For thou hast made him but little lower than God, And crownest him with glory and honor.

6Thou makest him to have dominion over the works of thy hands; Thou hast put all things under his feet:

7All sheep and oxen, Yea, and the beasts of the field,

8The birds of the heavens, and the fish of the sea, Whatsoever passeth through the paths of the seas.

9O Jehovah, our Lord, How excellent is thy name in all the earth!
American Standard Version, 1901
9)1I will give thanks unto Jehovah with my whole heart; I will show forth all thy marvellous works.

2I will be glad and exult in thee; I will sing praise to thy name, O thou Most High.

3When mine enemies turn back, They stumble and perish at thy presence.

4For thou hast maintained my right and my cause; Thou sittest in the throne judging righteously.

5Thou hast rebuked the nations, thou hast destroyed the wicked; Thou hast blotted out their name for ever and ever.

6The enemy are come to an end, they are desolate for ever; And the cities which thou hast overthrown, The very remembrance of them is perished.

7But Jehovah sitteth as king for ever: He hath prepared his throne for judgment;

8And he will judge the world in righteousness, He will minister judgment to the peoples in uprightness.

9Jehovah also will be a high tower for the oppressed, A high tower in times of trouble;

10And they that know thy name will put their trust in thee; For thou, Jehovah, hast not forsaken them that seek thee.

11Sing praises to Jehovah, who dwelleth in Zion: Declare among the people his doings.

12For he that maketh inquisition for blood remembereth them; He forgetteth not the cry of the poor.

13Have mercy upon me, O Jehovah; Behold my affliction which I suffer of them that hate me, Thou that liftest me up from the gates of death;

14That I may show forth all thy praise. In the gates of the daughter of Zion I will rejoice in thy salvation.

15The nations are sunk down in the pit that they made: In the net which they hid is their own foot taken.

16Jehovah hath made himself known, he hath executed judgment: The wicked is snared in the work of his own hands. Higgaion. Selah

17The wicked shall be turned back unto Sheol, Even all the nations that forget God.

18For the needy shall not alway be forgotten, Nor the expectation of the poor perish for ever.

19Arise, O Jehovah; let not man prevail: Let the nations be judged in thy sight.

20Put them in fear, O Jehovah: Let the nations know themselves to be but men. Selah

American Standard Version, 1901

10)1Why standest thou afar off, O Jehovah? Why hidest thou thyself in times of trouble?

2In the pride of the wicked the poor is hotly pursued; Let them be taken in the devices that they have conceived.

3For the wicked boasteth of his heart's desire, And the covetous renounceth, yea , contemneth Jehovah.

4The wicked, in the pride of his countenance,'saith , He will not require it . All his thoughts are, There is no God.

5His ways are firm at all times; Thy judgments are far above out of his sight: As for all his adversaries, he puffeth at them.

6He saith in his heart, I shall not be moved; To all generations I shall not be in adversity.

7His mouth is full of cursing and deceit and oppression: Under his tongue is mischief and iniquity.

8He sitteth in the lurking-places of the villages; In the secret places doth he murder the innocent; His eyes are privily set against the helpless.

9He lurketh in secret as a lion in his covert; He lieth in wait to catch the poor: He doth catch the poor, when he draweth him in his net.

10He croucheth, he boweth down, And the helpless fall by his strong ones.

11He saith in his heart, God hath forgotten; He hideth his face; he will never see it.

12Arise, O Jehovah; O God, lift up thy hand: Forget not the poor.

13Wherefore doth the wicked contemn God, And say in his heart, Thou wilt not require it ?

14Thou hast seen it ; for thou beholdest mischief and spite, to requite it with thy hand: The helpless committeth himself unto thee; Thou hast been the helper of the fatherless.

15Break thou the arm of the wicked; And as for the evil man, seek out his wickedness till thou find none.

16Jehovah is King for ever and ever: The nations are perished out of his land.

17Jehovah, thou hast heard the desire of the meek: Thou wilt prepare their heart, thou wilt cause thine ear to hear;

18To judge the fatherless and the oppressed, That man who is of the earth may be terrible no more.

American Standard Version, 1901
11)1In Jehovah do I take refuge: How say ye to my soul, Flee as a bird to your mountain;

2For, lo, the wicked bend the bow, They make ready their arrow upon the string, That they may shoot in darkness at the upright in heart;

3If the foundations be destroyed, What can the righteous do?

4Jehovah is in his holy temple; Jehovah, his throne is in heaven; His eyes behold, his eyelids try, the children of men.

5Jehovah trieth the righteous; But the wicked and him that loveth violence his soul hateth.

6Upon the wicked he will rain snares; Fire and brimstone and burning wind shall be the portion of their cup.

7For Jehovah is righteous; he loveth righteousness: The upright shall behold his face.

American Standard Version, 1901
12)1Help, Jehovah; for the godly man ceaseth; For the faithful fail from among the children of men.

2They speak falsehood every one with his neighbor: With flattering lip, and with a double heart, do they speak.

3Jehovah will cut off all flattering lips, The tongue that speaketh great things;

4Who have said, With our tongue will we prevail; Our lips are our own: who is lord over us?

5Because of the oppression of the poor, because of the sighing of the needy, Now will I arise, saith Jehovah; I will set him in the safety he panteth for.

6The words of Jehovah are pure words; As silver tried in a furnace on the earth, Purified seven times.

7Thou wilt keep them, O Jehovah, Thou wilt preserve them from this generation for ever.

8The wicked walk on every side, When vileness is exalted among the sons of men.

American Standard Version, 1901
12)1How long, O Jehovah? wilt thou forget me for ever? How long wilt thou hide thy face from me?

2How long shall I take counsel in my soul, Having sorrow in my heart all the day? How long shall mine enemy be exalted over me?

3Consider and answer me, O Jehovah my God: Lighten mine eyes, lest I sleep the'sleep of death;

4Lest mine enemy say, I have prevailed against him; Lest mine adversaries rejoice when I am moved.

5But I have trusted in thy lovingkindness; My heart shall rejoice in thy salvation.

6I will sing unto Jehovah, Because he hath dealt bountifully with me.

American Standard Version, 1901
14)1The fool hath said in his heart, There is no God. They are corrupt, they have done abominable works; There is none that doeth good.

2Jehovah looked down from heaven upon the children of men, To see if there were any that did understand, That did seek after God.

3They are all gone aside; they are together become filthy; There is none that doeth good, no, not one.

4Have all the workers of iniquity no knowledge, Who eat up my people as they eat bread, And call not upon Jehovah?

5There were they in great fear; For God is in the generation of the righteous.

6Ye put to shame the counsel of the poor, Because Jehovah is his refuge.

7Oh that the salvation of Israel were come out of Zion! When Jehovah bringeth back the captivity of his people, Then shall Jacob rejoice, and Israel shall be glad.
American Standard Version, 1901



Where's Occam's razor when you need it?

As if the Multiverse Wasn't Bizarre Enough ... Meet Many Worlds
Denyse O'Leary December 16, 2013 5:28 AM


In 1957 physicist Hugh Everett suggested the "Many Worlds" hypothesis as a proposed interpretation of quantum mechanics. He suggested that the universe constantly splits into different futures each time a subatomic particle goes one way as opposed to the other. Everett thus promptly exited theoretical physics.

However now, some hope that combining Everett's "many worlds" theory with the multiverse will strengthen current cosmology. New Scientist's Justin Mullins explains:
Two of the strangest ideas in modern physics -- that the cosmos constantly splits into parallel universes in which every conceivable outcome of every event happens, and the notion that our universe is part of a larger multiverse -- have been unified into a single theory.
In other words, not only is there an infinite number of universes, but they come into existence every time you turn right instead of left.
Today, such ideas come thicker, faster. We are told, "Our cosmos was 'bruised' in collisions with other, never-observed universes. Or we are living in a giant hologram.* Alternatively, a University of Washington team enterprisingly suggests that maybe the universe is fine-tuned because we are living in a computer simulation, one constructed by super-intelligent descendants who have gone back in time. Science writer Ray Villard offers:

Before you dismiss this idea as completely loony, the reality of such a Sim Universe might solve a lot of eerie mysteries about the cosmos. About two-dozen of the universe's fundamental constants happen to fall within the narrow range thought to be compatible with life. At first glance it seems as unlikely as balancing a pencil on its tip. Jiggle these parameters and life as we know it would have never appeared. Not even stars and galaxies. This is called the Anthropic principle ... We are also living at a very special time in the universe's history where it switched gears from decelerating to accelerating under the push of dark energy. This begs the question "why me why now?"
Before anyone attempts to offer an alternative to the Sim, he advises:
Biblical creationists can no doubt embrace these seeming cosmic coincidences as unequivocal evidence for their "theory" of Intelligent Design (ID). But is our "God" really a computer programmer rather than a bearded old man living in the sky?
Science-Fictions-square.gifVillard implies that only Biblical creationists think that fine-tuning points to a First Cause. That's a fiction he needs; his proposed alternative is even more bizarre than his caricatured mash-up of creationists and advocates of intelligent design.
Never mind, Lee Smolin and colleagues aim to take relativity to a whole new level, with space-time in their sights: "They say we need to forget about the home Einstein invented for us: we live instead in a place called phase space." Which, we are told, is a "curious eight-dimensional world that merges our familiar four dimensions of space and time and a four-dimensional world called momentum space. Smolin, incidentally, does not think that there is a scientific method, just scientific ethics and that laws of nature can evolve over time, in Darwinian fashion. Physics now bows to Darwinian theory, where once it was the reverse.

The eternal cyclic universe is also back. Perimeter Institute cosmologist Neil Turok informs us:

I'm exploring the idea that the singularity was not the beginning of time. In this new view, time didn't have a beginning, and the Big Bang resulted from a collision of branes, sheetlike spaces that exist within a higher-dimensional reality. These collisions might happen repeatedly, creating an eternal, cyclic universe.
Indeed, we are told, time flows backward. Thinking it travels exclusively forward "may be not just an illusion but a lie ... " Discover's Zeeya Merali says. Max Tegmark suggests, "Perhaps we will gradually get used to the weird ways of our cosmos and find its strangeness to be part of its charm."
"Time need not end in the multiverse," burbles science writer Amanda Gefter, as if time or anything else would mean anything in a multiverse. Others suggest, maybe the universes are a wave function. And our own universe may exist inside a black hole. Not to worry, our "original" universe will eventually be populated by "a near-infinite number of advanced, virtual civilizations" featuring "autonomous, conscious beings."

And there is the usual, indeed endless, moralizing: Tegmark proclaims, "We humans have a well-documented tendency toward hubris, arrogantly imagining ourselves at center stage, with everything revolving around us." And cosmologist Raphael Bousso at the University of California, Berkeley, accuses the science community of the sin of "lying to ourselves," by refusing to assume that the "many worlds" theory may be true. Lack of clear evidence has, apparently, nothing to do with it.

By the way, there is life after death: Some clever beings might survive our universe's predicted demise, provided they develop suitable technologies. Apocalypses are also on offer: Stephen Hawking doubts humans will survive another thousand years without escaping Earth.

And God is back too, but not like you remember him. Agnostic physicist Paul Davies explains:

Far from doing away with a transcendent Creator, the multiverse theory actually injects that very concept at almost every level of its logical structure. Gods and worlds, creators and creatures, lie embedded in each other, forming an infinite regress in unbounded space.
So God turns out to be just one more note of cacophony in the transcendent goofiness.
Remember, all this got started just to explain away fine-tuning.

We are told that we are "on the brink of understanding everything," when our cosmology guarantees that we can understand nothing and there is nothing to understand anyway. Everything, you see, is true -- for fifteen seconds.

* Some say the hologram universe originated in an argument Stephen Hawking had with other physicists.

Loved to death?

National Science Standards Reflect a Growing Anxiety on the Part of Evolution Advocates



Examining a challenge to Life's no free lunch law

The GUC Bug
Winston Ewert December 4, 2015 10:55 AM

In a series of posts, of which this is the third, I am examining criticisms from Joe Felsenstein (University of Washington geneticist) and Tom English (Oklahoma City computer scientist) in response to two arguments for intelligent design: specified complexity and conservation of information. See here for Parts 1 and 2 in the series.

In my previous post, I reviewed the arguments by William Dembski and Robert Marks in their paper "Life's Conservation Law." I showed that the paper is not based on any simplistic claim that all active information must derive from an intelligent source. However, it does argue that all known computer and mathematical models of Darwinian evolution are teleological. Dembski and Marks argued:

In these models, careful tailoring of fitness functions that assist in locating targets is always present and clearly teleological.

If one could demonstrate such a model that lacked teleology, then their claims would be falsified.

In a post at Panda's Thumb, "Fitness surfaces and searches: Dembski, Ewert, and Marks's search for design," Felsenstein and English spend some time discussing a simple greedy search algorithm, which they name the GUC (Greedy Uphill Climber) Bug. English, in his post "The Law of Conservation of Information is defunct," brings it up again. It is a fairly standard hill-climbing algorithm. It begins with a sequence of DNA one thousand bases long. In each "generation," it evaluates the three thousand DNA sequences that are one nucleotide substitution away from that current sequence. The best sequence is adopted as the new current sequence, and the process repeats itself.

English tested the GUC Bug on a random fitness function. It cannot possibly be argued that a random fitness function was carefully tailored to assist in locating a target. Thus, the success of this bug rests clearly on nonteleological grounds. They describe its performance:

Running the bug until it reached a local peak of the fitness surface, where no immediate neighbor is more fit, [Tom English] found that these peaks were typically higher than 99.98% of all points. So even on one of the worst possible fitness surfaces, a GUC Bug does far better than choosing a DNA sequence at random.

However, we have not claimed that a search algorithm like GUC can't do better than choosing a DNA sequence at random. In fact, Dembski and Marks showed that it could and provided a limit on the active information available through such a scheme. In "Conservation of Information in Search: Measuring the Cost of Success," they wrote:

Multiple queries clearly contain more information than a single query. Active information is therefore introduced from repeated queries.

Demonstrating an algorithm using multiple random queries that outperforms a single random query is not at all surprising. It is precisely what Dembski and Marks indicated would happen. The idea that doing better than choosing a DNA sequence at random would prove our case incorrect derives from the mistaken claim that we think all active information must derive from an intelligent source.

However, does this GUC Bug constitute a nonteleological model of Darwinian evolution, which Dembski and Marks claimed (in "Life's Conservation Law") does not exist? No. It is not a model of Darwinian evolution because it cannot do what is required of Darwinian evolution. Darwinian evolution has to account for finding rare protein folds and complex functional systems. The GUC Bug, operating on a random fitness landscape, does not even come close.

The GUC Bug finds a sequence better than 99.98% of all other sequences, which may sound impressive. But consider, as do English and Felsenstein, this algorithm running for fifty generations. That corresponds to 150,000 different sequences. If we simply took 150,000 random genotypes, we'd expect to find one better than about 99.999% of all the other genotypes. The GUC Bug does worse than random queries, due to getting stuck in a local optimum rather quickly. I hardly need to rehearse the insufficiency of even large numbers of random queries to solve biological problems. This model will have an even harder time solving problems.

However, Felsenstein and English note that a more realistic model of evolution wouldn't have a random fitness landscape. Felsenstein, in particular, argues that "the ordinary laws of physics, with their weakness of long-range interactions, lead to fitness surfaces much smoother than white-noise fitness surfaces." I agree that weak long-range interactions should produce a fitness landscape somewhat smoother than random chance and this fitness landscape would thus be a source of some active information.

We disagree in that I do not think that is going to be a sufficient source of active information to account for biology. I do not have a proof of this. But neither does Felsenstein have a demonstration that it will produce sufficient active information. What I do have is the observation of existing models of evolution. The smoothness present in those models does not derive from some notion of weak long-range physics, but rather from telelogy as explored in my various papers on them.

The GUC Bug falls within the expectations of active information. It extracts active information through repeated queries. Running on a random fitness landscape, it fails to be a model of evolution, because it performs even worse than random search would have. If run on a smooth landscape, it may be a model of Darwinian evolution. However, in order for it to be a non-teleological model of evolution, that fitness landscape would have to be derived in a non-teleological fashion. It remains to be demonstrated that it is possible to construct such a fitness landscape. Thus far, models of evolution have consistently devised the fitness landscape in a teleological fashion.

The Watchtower Society's commentary on Ecclesiastes

ECCLESIASTES:

The Hebrew name Qo·heʹleth (meaning “Congregator; Assembler; Convener; Convoker”) fittingly describes the role of the king in the theocratic government that Israel enjoyed. (Ec 1:1, 12) It was the responsibility of the ruler to hold the dedicated people of God together in faithfulness to their true King and God. (1Ki 8:1-5, 41-43, 66) For that reason, whether a king was good or bad for the nation was determined by whether he led the nation in the worship of Jehovah or not. (2Ki 16:1-4; 18:1-6) The congregator, who was Solomon, had already done much congregating of Israel and their companions, the temporary residents, to the temple. In this book he sought to congregate God’s people away from the vain and fruitless works of this world to the works worthy of the God to whom they as a nation were dedicated. The name used in our English Bibles is taken from the translation of Qo·heʹleth in the Greek Septuagint, namely, Ek·kle·si·a·stesʹ (Ecclesiastes), meaning “a member of an ecclesia (congregation; assembly).”

Writer. There was only one “son of David,” namely, Solomon, who was “king over Israel in Jerusalem” (Ec 1:1, 12), for kings after Solomon did not reign over all Israel. Solomon was the king so well known for his surpassing wisdom. (Ec 1:16; 1Ki 4:29-34) He was a builder. (Ec 2:4-6; 1Ki 6:1; 7:1-8) He was a composer of proverbs. (Ec 12:9; 1Ki 4:32) Solomon was renowned for his wealth. (Ec 2:4-9; 1Ki 9:17-19; 10:4-10, 14-29) Since the book mentions the building program of Solomon, it must have been written after that time but before he “began to do what was bad in the eyes of Jehovah.” (1Ki 11:6) The book was therefore written before 1000 B.C.E., in Jerusalem. That Solomon would be one of the best qualified men to write the book is supported by the fact that he was not only the richest but probably one of the best informed kings of his day; his sailors and tradesmen as well as visiting dignitaries would bring news and knowledge of people of other lands.—1Ki 9:26-28; 10:23-25, 28, 29.

Authenticity. Qo·heʹleth, or Ecclesiastes, is accepted as canonical by both the Jewish and the Christian churches. It is in agreement with other portions of the Bible that treat the same subjects. For example, it agrees with Genesis on man’s being made up of a body composed of the dust of the ground and having the spirit or life-force from God and the breath that sustains it. (Ec 3:20, 21; 12:7; Ge 2:7; 7:22; Isa 42:5) It affirms the Bible teaching that man was created upright but willfully chose to disobey God. (Ec 7:29; Ge 1:31; 3:17; De 32:4, 5) It acknowledges God as the Creator. (Ec 12:1; Ge 1:1) It concurs with the rest of the Bible as to the state of the dead. (Ec 9:5, 10; Ge 3:19; Ps 6:5; 115:17; Joh 11:11-14; Ro 6:23) It strongly advocates the worship and the fear of God. It uses the expression ha·Ê¼Elo·himʹ, “the true God,” 32 times. The equivalent for the name Jehovah is found in the Syriac Peshitta and Jewish Targum of the book at Ecclesiastes 2:24. While some claim that the book contradicts itself, this is only because they do not see that the book many times sets forth the common view as opposed to the view that reflects divine wisdom. (Compare Ec 1:18; 7:11, 12.) So one must read with a view to getting the sense and must keep in mind the theme of the book.

[Box on page 675]

HIGHLIGHTS OF ECCLESIASTES

A vivid description of works that are vain and those that are worth while

Written by Solomon in the latter part of his kingship, after he had engaged in the numerous pursuits that he describes

A life devoted to vain pursuits is empty

To a natural man all is vanity; one generation is replaced by another, and even natural cycles are repetitious and wearisome (1:1-11)

Increased human wisdom can result in increased pain; what is crooked in this system cannot be made straight (1:12-18)

Devoting oneself to pleasure-seeking through materialism is like striving after the wind (2:1-11, 26)

Wisdom is better than folly, but both the wise and the stupid ones die and are forgotten (2:12-16)

Working hard all one’s life only to leave everything to a man who may not appreciate it—this is calamitous (2:17-23)

Events in earthly life often occur in cycles, many of which are beyond human control (3:1-9)

In the present system, all (both man and beast) eventually die (3:18-22)

Many acts of oppression take place, with no hope from a human standpoint (4:1-3)

Hard work and proficiency because of rivalry or simply to accumulate wealth is vanity, and the lazy person is stupid (4:4-8)

The life of a ruler can also be vain (4:13-16)

Accumulating riches will not bring contentment, but it may rob the owner of his sleep; and when he dies he will leave them all behind (5:9-17)

Though a person has many possessions, circumstances—perhaps illness or an unfulfilled longing—may prevent him from finding contentment (6:1-12)

In the present system, the same eventuality awaits both righteous and wicked—all die; so, some give free rein to badness (9:2, 3)

Wisdom is not always appreciated when it comes from a needy man (9:13-18)

Indulging in foolishness gives one a bad reputation; when such incompetent ones are in positions of authority, it is hazardous for them and hard on others (10:1-19)

Youth and the prime of life are vanity; the duration of youthful vigor is so uncertain (11:10)

If a person has not been guided in life by constant remembrance of the Creator, everything is vanity! (12:8)

Things that are worth while and that give meaning to one’s life

Enjoy the fruits of your work, recognizing these as a gift from God (2:24, 25; 5:18-20)

The works of God are all pretty; before mankind he has set the prospect of life to time indefinite (3:10-13)

The general pattern of human life that exists according to God’s permission or purpose cannot be changed by man; so wait on God to act as Judge in his appointed time (3:14-17; 5:8)

A person who works with a partner is better off than a loner (4:9-12)

Proper fear of God should move us to listen carefully to what he requires of us and to fulfill any vow we make to him (5:1-7)

Appreciate the importance of a good name and the brevity of our present life in which to acquire it, the benefit of patience, the superior value of wisdom, and the need to submit humbly to what God permits (7:1-15)

Avoid going to extremes but be guided by fear of God; do not get overly concerned about what other people say; shun the snare of a prostitute (7:16-29)

Be law abiding; even though men dominate others to their injury and human justice is lax, do not let it spoil your enjoyment of life; remember, it will turn out well with those who fear the true God; do not expect to fathom all the reasons for what God does and permits to occur (8:1-17; 10:20)

The righteous ones and the wise ones are in the hand of the true God—they will not lose their reward; but in death a person knows nothing and can do nothing, so use your life now in a manner that God will approve; enjoy it in wholesome ways while you have it (9:1, 4-12)

Seize appropriate opportunities to be generous, to accomplish good; do not let uncertainties of life stifle your activity (11:1-8)

Young man, enjoy your youth, but do not forget that you are accountable to God for your actions; remember your Grand Creator while you are young, before the weakness and decrepitude of old age come, before life ends (11:9; 12:1-7)

The most beneficial writings are those that reflect the wisdom of the “one shepherd,” Jehovah God (12:9-12)

Fear the true God and keep his commandments; he sees everything that we do, and he will bring our works into judgment (12:13, 14)

Saturday 29 April 2017

Darwinism continues to lose on every sale.

An Inordinate Fondness for Confounding Darwinians





Write FAIL by another Darwinian prediction: there's no relationship between the length of a branch on Darwin's "tree of life" and how many leaves it has. Evolutionists find this result of a massive study surprising and disconcerting.
The question is this: Shouldn't groups of organisms that have been evolving the longest have the most species? If neo-Darwinism could make any law-like predictions, this should be it: the inexorable pressure to evolve or perish should lead to the most species in the oldest groups:
the most fundamental expectation in macroevolutionary studies is simply that species richness in extant clades should be correlated with clade age: all things being equal, older clades will have had more time for diversity to accumulate than younger clades.
So say Rabosky, Slater and Alfaro, who have just published the most exhaustive study to date of species richness as a function of time. They examined species counts for 1,397 clades, representing 1.2 million species "for taxa as diverse as ferns, fungi, and flies" (emphasis added throughout). Here's what they expected, as reported in their paper in PLoS Biology:
The most general explanatory variable of all is clade age: clades vary in age, and this age variation should lead to differences in clade diversity, particularly if all clades have identical net rates of species diversification through time. If clade diversity is generally increasing through time, there is a strong theoretical expectation that species richness should be associated with their age (Figure S1). Even if individual clades are characterized by a "balanced" random walk in diversity, such that speciation and extinction rates are exactly equal, we may still observe a positive relationship between age and richness through time if clade diversity is conditioned on survival to the present day (Figure S1). Stochastic models of clade diversification through time consistently suggest that species richness and clade age should be correlated. These expectations differ from patterns observed for extinct clades, presumably because living clades have survived to the present to be observed. The expectation that age and diversity should be correlated does not minimize the importance of evolutionary "key innovations" and other factors as determinants of clade richness. In fact, to the extent that such factors influence net diversification rates, their effects should further accentuate differences in richness attributable to age variation alone.
Well, guess what. They aren't correlated. "Clade Age and Species Richness Are Decoupled Across the Eukaryotic Tree of Life," says he paper's title. "At the largest phylogenetic scales, contemporary patterns of species richness are inconsistent with unbounded diversity increase through time," the researchers found. "These results imply that a fundamentally different interpretative paradigm may be needed in the study of phylogenetic diversity patterns in many groups of organisms." Much to their consternation, they couldn't wiggle out of this result (readers can check the open-access paper for how many ways they tried).

The three biologists certainly are aware of complicating factors that might rule out a neat, clean graph. They know that "Some groups, like beetles and flowering plants, contain nearly incomprehensible species diversity, but the overwhelming majority of groups contain far fewer species." Only one species of tuatara, for example, remains after 200 million years on the planet. Sometimes extinction rate exceeds speciation rate; sometimes the ecological niche puts constraints on the ability to diversify. Or, species counts might be artifacts of our taxonomic system or the habits of collectors. Still, even when correcting for these factors, Rabosky et al. expected some remnant of a law-like trend between clade age and species diversity. Not only was no correlation found at the large scale, it was not found at finer scales either. When they authors examined beetles in more detail, for instance, age and diversity showed an even lower correlation than for the bigger picture.
This failure of expectations left them scrambling. It's important to understand the causes for this decoupling, they point out, because most phylogenetic models rely on the implicit assumption that clades should diversify over time at some kind of predictable evolutionary rate. "If age and richness truly are decoupled, then species richness in clades should not be modeled as the outcome of a simple time-constant diversification process, as is done in the overwhelming majority of evolutionary and biogeographic studies." Note that point: the "overwhelming majority of ... evolutionary studies" is based on an assumption that is demonstrably wrong!
Commentary by Harmon
When faced with contrary data this strong, evolutionists have to be immensely creative in coming up with ways to dodge the implications. Luke J. Harmon, for instance, commenting on this paper in the same issue of PLoS Biology, tries humor. He tinkers with an irrelevant joke by J. B. S. Haldane who, noting the 400,000-some-odd species of Coleoptera, quipped that "God has an inordinate fondness for beetles." Harmon titled his paper, therefore, "An Inordinate Fondness for Eukaryotic Diversity."
The point of his commentary is that this is not really a problem; sure, the study showed that it is "difficult or impossible to predict how many species will be found in a particular clade knowing how long a clade has been diversifying from a common ancestor" -- but one thing evolutionists can take heart about, he assures us: we're slowly becoming ever wiser and more knowledgeable about Darwin's world:
This pattern suggests complex dynamics of speciation and extinction in the history of eukaryotes. Rabosky et al.'s paper represents the latest development in our efforts to understand the Earth's biodiversity at the broadest scales.
Where is the understanding exactly? Evolutionists predicted a trend, and found none. Does labeling the situation "complex " help? Does a drunken sailor's staggering suddenly make sense simply by speaking of it as reflecting a "complex dynamic"?

Harmon praises Rabosky et al. for "the most ambitious study to date" saying, "This provides a remarkably complete view of what we currently know about the species diversity of clades across a huge section of the tree of life." He imagines an escape hatch in the future, saying that their "analysis is not the final chapter" because "the tree of life is still under construction, and the total number of species in some clades is best viewed as an educated guess." Maybe somebody else will find a pattern some day. With more genomes, or with improved species counts, who knows?
"Still, the results in Rabosky et al. are intriguing and will certainly inspire further study, which I expect will be focused on testing more sophisticated mathematical models, beyond the constant-rate birth-death models prevalent today, that might be able to explain patterns in the data." Yes, falsifying evidence is indeed "intriguing." After that, Harmon wanders off into a distracting diversion about another evolutionist's quip, this one by Huxley, who joked about "Santa Rosalia as the patroness of evolutionary studies." Pay no attention; there's no falsification here. Look at this nice shrine!
News Coverage
How did the science news media spin this result? Michael Alfaro, senior author of the paper, works at UCLA, where a press release written by Stuart Wolpert gave the official interpretation for public consumption (for instance, on PhysOrg). "Why evolution has produced 'winners' -- including mammals and many species of birds and fish -- and 'losers' is a major question in evolutionary biology," we're told.
Scientists have often posited that because some animal and plant lineages are much older than others, they have had more time to produce new species (the dearth of crocodiles notwithstanding). This idea -- that time is an important predictor of species number -- underlies many theoretical models used by biologists. However, it fails to explain species numbers across all multi-cellular life on the planet, a team of life scientists reports Aug. 28 in the online journal PLoS Biology, a publication of the Public Library of Science.

"We found no evidence of that," said Michael Alfaro, a UCLA associate professor of ecology and evolutionary biology and senior author of the new study. "When we look across the tree of life, the age of the group tells us almost nothing about how many species we would expect to find. In most groups, it tells us nothing."
Another idea, that some groups are innately better or worse at producing species, similarly fails to explain differences in species number among all of the major living lineages of plants and animals, the life scientists found.
So far, this is a forthright statement of the findings. Wolpert gives significant space to Alfaro's favorite rescue strategy, that of "adaptive zone carrying capacity" -- the notion that speciation will proceed up to the point where an adaptive zone is filled to its carrying capacity, then will stop. "Most of the groups that we studied have hit their limits," Alfaro said. "Ecological limits can explain the data we see." This is, of course, not an explanation but a post-hoc rationalization.

So despite the despairing tone of the paper, Alfaro finds a little light in the darkness: "The ultimate goal in our field is to have a reconstruction of the entire evolutionary history of all species on the planet," he says. "Here we provide a piece of the puzzle. Our study sheds light on the causal factors of biodiversity across the tree of life."
But in the paper, the three authors jointly considered and rejected adaptive zone carrying capacity as a suitable explanation for the data. The idea of adaptive zones is not new; George Gaylord Simpson coined the phrase in 1953. Adaptive zone carrying capacity was one of several "diversity-dependent processes" the authors investigated that might result in the decoupling of time and diversity they found. The explanation would be that "ecological opportunity influences the tempo and mode of species diversification through time."
A fallacy in this explanation, though, is its assumption that carrying capacity is static: "We may not understand the ecological mechanisms underlying 'carrying capacity dynamics, but we must still wrestle with substantial neontological and paleontological evidence for their existence." The dynamics exist, they mean. Organisms have uncanny abilities to break out of the box and enter new niches, or to rebound after mass extinctions; the explanation, therefore, fails when considered in the long term. It certainly does not explain why one species of tuatara survives in the same adaptive zone as hundreds of species of beetles.
The authors would not have left time-richness decoupling as an unsolved problem if any number of explanations they considered were of any help: "we are not presently aware of any non-biological mechanism that can account for this lack of relationship," they conclude. Maybe in the future someone will find a law-like pattern; for now, it's a failed prediction of Darwin's tree of life that may require a "fundamentally different interpretive paradigm," as yet unknown.
Intelligent design theory holds no fixed view on common descent per se, with some in the ID camp being personally skeptical of the idea and other more accepting. Either way, from an ID perspective, there seems no reason to expect species richness to correlate with time. The data fit well with ID predictions, therefore, but represent a strong disconfirmation of neo-Darwinian predictions. Once again, nature seems to have an inordinate fondness for confounding Darwinians

Less is more.

Primitive?

Stenophlebia amphitrite, a Stunningly Gorgeous Dragonfly from the Upper Jurassic
David Klinghoffer | @d_klinghoffer

Our colleague Günter Bechly, paleontologist and Senior Fellow with Discovery Institute’s Center for Science & Culture, sends along two photographs he took. Take a moment and absorb the beauty of this fossil dragonfly:Dr. Bechly explains what we’re looking at:

It is a large dragonfly of the species Stenophlebia amphitrite from the Upper Jurassic (150 mya) lithographic limestone of Solnhofen in Bavaria, which is the same locality where Archaeopteryx was found. The dragonfly has a wing span of 17 cm (and belongs with other species of the family Stenophlebiidae to an extinct suborder Stenophlebioptera that was established by me. All known species are from the Mesozoic (Upper Jurassic to Lower Cretaceous).
When you see something like that, a creature that is so transparently a work of art, how in the world do you jump to evolutionary explanations dependent exclusively on blind churning?

Dr. Bechly tells his story, as a proponent of the theory of intelligent design, in a clip from  Revolutionary: Michael Behe and the Mystery of Molecular MachinesFind it here.

dragonfly