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Thursday, 3 November 2022

And still yet even more on why ID is already mainstream.

Design Detection in the New York Times — The Issue of Science Fraud 

Paul Nelson 

Microbiologist Elisabeth Bik writes for the New York Times that “Science Has a Nasty Photoshopping Problem.” The illustrations in the article are particularly useful for showing the role of Bill Dembski’s paired notions of “specification” and “small probability” as the two arms of an analytical pincer. When that pincer closes around a pattern, intelligent causation is uniquely implicated. 


The duplicated images isolated by Dr. Bik — e.g., blots from electrophoretic gels, photomicrographs of bacteria — each individually represent a small probability pattern. But when that SAME pattern is reproduced in a putatively independent sample, the specification arm of the pincer closes on the pattern in question. Each duplicated image specifies its original, or another image, with the same small probability, only now we must take the product of those small probabilities. Design is implicated: the deliberate, directed, intentional action of at least one intelligence.


“Rediscovering” Dembksi’s Analytical Pincer

What’s so fascinating to me, at this moment in November 2022, is the independent “rediscovery” of this analytical pincer by Lee Cronin, Sara Walker, and their collaborators, in their Assembly Theory project. Here’s a screen capture from Cronin’s Twitter account, just a few days ago: 




The motto of the Assembly Theory team is “copy number counts.” Why, or how, can we be sure that the bogus images Bik has identified represent science fraud? Why have so many papers been retracted after their duplicated images have been caught?


“Copy number counts.” Or, to use Bill Dembski’s formulation — after all, Bill got there in his Cambridge U Press monograph almost 25 years (1998) before the Assembly Theory project — specified patterns of small probability are caused by design, not undirected physical processes.


By the way, I apologize for the f-bombs, but see this clip from Martin Scorsese’s movie Casino. The first big slot machine payoff specifies the second, and those two payoffs specify the third, when conjoined analytically with the small probabilities in each case. “There’s an infallible way,” says Robert De Niro (playing casino boss Sam Rothstein), to determine that cheating (design) was involved. "they won" 





 

A plague on both their houses.

 Daniel11:27ASV" and as for both these kings, their hearts shall be to do mischief, and they shall speak lies at one table: but it shall not prosper; for yet the end shall be at the time appointed." 

According to JEHOVAH'S word through the prophet Daniel, the end times of the present global civilisation will be characterized by (among other things) a bitter struggle between a pair of world powers emerging from the ancient greco-Roman civilisation for global dominance. 

The above quote makes it clear that the Lord JEHOVAH does not think very highly of either of these entities. It also puts true Christians and sincere truth seekers on guard against putting faith in their promises. 

Mind over matter again.

Placebos Demonstrate Power of the Human Mind 

Denyse O'Leary 

We don’t often hear about researchers crying but when scientists at Ovid Therapeutics heard the test results for their drug, gaboxadol, they couldn’t help it.


They were testing the sleep-inducing drug to help with the symptoms of Angelman Syndrome, a rare neurogenetic disorder that appears in infancy. It results in a variety of developmental problems such as walking and balance disorders, inability to speak or sleep properly, gastrointestinal issues, and seizures. It affects people in different ways and to different degrees. Notably, those who cope with Angelman smile and laugh a lot and have a normal lifespan.

Waiting with Hope 

The Ovid team had high hopes for gaboxadol in August of this year because even improving quality of sleep would help sufferers a lot. So, at a conference on the disorder, they waited for the news in hope… 

“Ovid’s chief medical officer called into the conference room. He got straight to the point: There was no statistically significant benefit for children who received gaboxadol versus a placebo. The treatment had failed.


The room fell silent. Levin thought about how the company would need to restructure its programs and how its stock would be battered. But mostly he thought about the families and the overwhelming disappointment they would feel.


Levin began to cry. His colleagues, many of whom had also devoted years of their lives to this project, cried too.” 


ANGIE VOLES ASKHAM, “WHAT NEXT FOR ANGELMAN?” AT SPECTRUM (OCTOBER 20, 2022) 

Angelman Syndrome is caused by a loss of function of the UBE3A gene in the 15th chromosome derived from the mother. 

About the Placebo Effect 

But now, about that placebo effect… Molecular biologist Rebecca Burdine, whose daughter Sophie suffers from Angelman, was there to present a keynote address. As Askham recounts, 

One problem, Burdine knew, is that even updated forms of assessment might not capture all of the ways a treatment could benefit a child. Even worse, treatments for many neurodevelopmental conditions, including Angelman syndrome, remain frustratingly susceptible to the placebo effect in clinical trials. Simply enrolling a child in a trial — giving them more medical and parental attention — can cause improvement in some skills. Burdine knew that in the gaboxadol trial, a child who had never walked before took their first steps — but it turned out that they were receiving placebo. That experience told Burdine that, until placebo-controlled trials were run, it would be impossible to know how well a treatment worked.


As the field progresses, Levin and his colleagues are also hoping to understand how people with Angelman syndrome respond to placebo, and how the condition affects people over time. To that end, last month Ovid released the data from its placebo-controlled gaboxadol trial and has encouraged other companies to do the same. 


ANGIE VOLES ASKHAM, “WHAT NEXT FOR ANGELMAN?” AT SPECTRUM (OCTOBER 20, 2022) 

The placebo effect means that, if you are part of a research study where you think you are receiving treatment for a disorder, you may start to improve in testable ways — even if you are in the control group, getting a sugar pill. It is literally “all in your mind.” But, as Ovid’s unfortunate experience shows, it is nonetheless powerful enough to affect a genetic disorder by itself. 

“More Than Positive Thinking” 

Professor Ted Kaptchuk, who studies the effect, explains:

“The placebo effect is more than positive thinking — believing a treatment or procedure will work. It’s about creating a stronger connection between the brain and body and how they work together” …


MENTAL HEALTH, “THE POWER OF THE PLACEBO EFFECT” AT HARVARD HEALTH PUBLISHING (DECEMBER 13, 2021) 

How Does It Work? 

How placebos work is still not quite understood, but it involves a complex neurobiological reaction that includes everything from increases in feel-good neurotransmitters, like endorphins and dopamine, to greater activity in certain brain regions linked to moods, emotional reactions, and self-awareness. All of it can have therapeutic benefit. “The placebo effect is a way for your brain to tell the body what it needs to feel better,” says Kaptchuk.


But placebos are not all about releasing brainpower. You also need the ritual of treatment. “When you look at these studies that compare drugs with placebos, there is the entire environmental and ritual factor at work,” says Kaptchuk. “You have to go to a clinic at certain times and be examined by medical professionals in white coats. You receive all kinds of exotic pills and undergo strange procedures. All this can have a profound impact on how the body perceives symptoms because you feel you are getting attention and care.” 


MENTAL HEALTH, “THE POWER OF THE PLACEBO EFFECT” AT HARVARD HEALTH PUBLISHING (DECEMBER 13, 2021) 

A 2015 paper in Nature on the neuroscience of the placebo effect points to its importance.


Read the rest at Mind Matters News, published by Discovery Institute’s Bradley Center for Natural and Artificial Intelligence.