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Saturday 11 November 2023

ITimothy Chapter 6 New International Version

 

6.1All who are under the yoke of slavery should consider their masters worthy of full respect, so that God’s name and our teaching may not be slandered. 2Those who have believing masters should not show them disrespect just because they are fellow believers. Instead, they should serve them even better because their masters are dear to them as fellow believers and are devoted to the welfare a of their slaves.


These are the things you are to teach and insist on. 3If anyone teaches otherwise and does not agree to the sound instruction of our Lord Jesus Christ and to godly teaching, 4they are conceited and understand nothing. They have an unhealthy interest in controversies and quarrels about words that result in envy, strife, malicious talk, evil suspicions 5and constant friction between people of corrupt mind, who have been robbed of the truth and who think that godliness is a means to financial gain.


6But godliness with contentment is great gain. 7For we brought nothing into the world, and we can take nothing out of it. 8But if we have food and clothing, we will be content with that. 9Those who want to get rich fall into temptation and a trap and into many foolish and harmful desires that plunge people into ruin and destruction. 10For the love of money is a root of all kinds of evil. Some people, eager for money, have wandered from the faith and pierced themselves with many griefs.


11But you, man of God, flee from all this, and pursue righteousness, godliness, faith, love, endurance and gentleness. 12Fight the good fight of the faith. Take hold of the eternal life to which you were called when you made your good confession in the presence of many witnesses. 13In the sight of God, who gives life to everything, and of Christ Jesus, who while testifying before Pontius Pilate made the good confession, I charge you 14to keep this command without spot or blame until the appearing of our Lord Jesus Christ, 15which God will bring about in his own time—God, the blessed and only Ruler, the King of kings and Lord of lords, 16who alone is immortal and who lives in unapproachable light, whom no one has seen or can see. To him be honor and might forever. Amen.


17Command those who are rich in this present world not to be arrogant nor to put their hope in wealth, which is so uncertain, but to put their hope in God, who richly provides us with everything for our enjoyment. 18Command them to do good, to be rich in good deeds, and to be generous and willing to share. 19In this way they will lay up treasure for themselves as a firm foundation for the coming age, so that they may take hold of the life that is truly life.


20Timothy, guard what has been entrusted to your care. Turn away from godless chatter and the opposing ideas of what is falsely called knowledge, 21which some have professed and in so doing have departed from the faith.


Grace be with you all.

On why artificial intelligence will remain subordinate to actual intelligence.

 Must AI Inevitably Degenerate into Nonsense, through “Model Collapse”?


Discovery Institute’s recent COSM 2023 conference hosted a panel on “The Quintessential Limits and Possibilities of AI,” addressing one of the fundamental questions that COSM seeks to investigate: “Is artificial intelligence ‘generative’ or degenerative?” If these experts are right, AI might be doomed to eventually degenerate into nonsense.

George Montañez, Assistant Professor of Computer Science at Harvey Mudd College, opened the session by explaining how AI works. Modern AIs and their “large language models” (LLMs) are trained on huge sets of real-world data — namely text and images generated by humans. Panelist William Dembski, a mathematician and philosopher, pointed out that these LLMs “require a lot of input data and training” in order to work. For example, he notes that it took an immense amount of data, time, money, and collateral damage to humans, to train AI to recognize and reject pornography. Similarly, software engineer Walter Myers noted on the panel that ChatGPT had to train on millions of images of cats and dogs before it could reliably recognize them. In contrast, Montañez points out that a human child can see a few pictures of an animal and they’re immediately able to recognize that species as life.

Montañez further explained that after enough training, AI can interpret data “beyond the things it’s seeing” — but this is only due to “biases and assumptions” provided by humans who program AI with these capabilities. This means that “human fingerprints are all over” the capabilities of AI, and “as impressive as these systems are,” they are “highly parasitic on human rationality and creativity.” Montañez gave the example of an AI that remixes rap with Shakespeare. You “might think it’s amazing” but the reality is “it’s all based upon human programming.”

Model Collapse

But there’s a pitfall to training AI on large datasets — something Denyse O’Leary recently wrote about — called “model collapse.” In short, AI works because humans are real creative beings, and AIs are built using gigantic amounts of diverse and creative datasets made by humans on which they can train and start to think and reason like a human. Until now, this has been possible because human beings have created almost everything we see on the Internet. As AIs scour the entire Internet, they can trust that virtually everything they find was originally made by intelligent and creative beings (i.e., humans). Train AI on that stuff, and it begins to appear intelligent and creative (even if it really isn’t).

But what will happen as humans become more reliant on AI, and more and more of the Internet becomes populated with AI-generated material? If AI continues to train on whatever it finds on the Internet, but the web is increasingly an AI-generated landscape, then AI will end up training on itself. We know what happens when AIs train on themselves rather than the products of real intelligent humans — and it isn’t pretty. This is model collapse.

Enter Robert J. Marks, Distinguished Professor of Electrical and Computer Engineering at Baylor University. He noted that on the first day of COSM 23, computer scientist and AI pioneer Stephen Wolfram warned that we’re at the edge of available training data for AI — essentially we’re hitting the limits of what we can feed AI to make it smart. Once AI runs out of training data, what will it do — train itself?

After taking the audience through a brief history of computing and the development of AI, Marks noted that “each jump [in computing ability] was done by humans, not AI. Each jump in AI happened due to human ingenuity.” But when AI runs out of human ingenuity to train on, will it itself hit a limit — i.e., model collapse? As Montañez put it, “After we’ve scraped the web of all human training data” then “it starts to scrape AI-generated data” because “that’s all you have.” That’s when you get model collapse, and we might be getting close to it.

Marks cited a newly posted study at Arxiv.org, “The Curse of Recursion: Training on Generated Data Makes Models Forget,” which shows model collapse in action. An initial “generation” of AI is trained directly on human-created data and its output generally makes sense. But after multiple generations of AI training on itself, the result is gibberish that’s obsessed with nonsensically colored jackrabbits:

A similar phenomenon happens with images. Marks showed how an AI trained to creatively make variations of the Mona Lisa painting initially provides some interesting if perhaps disturbing images. But eventually, as it trains on its own material, you end up not with art but with nonsensical lines and smudges.

Digital Inbreeding

The problem of model collapse is not entirely unlike human genetics, where siblings or cousins are warned never to marry because they both carry the same deleterious mutations which, when combined, will yield malformed offspring. Better to marry someone outside your immediate gene pool, because they will likely have “fresh genetic material” that can be combined with yours to make healthy children.

In a similar way, AI training on itself needs fresh creative material on which to train or else the algorithms will end up feeding on themselves in recursive cycles that degenerate into nonsense. As Popular Mechanics put it recently, AI will end up “eating its own tail.” 

To mix metaphors, the threat of model collapse is akin to digital inbreeding, and it guarantees that without humans constantly providing fresh creative material for AIs to train on, AIs are doomed to deteriorate. Their creativity may therefore be limited by the human datasets they’re given, meaning there are basic limits to what AI can do. AI will never surpass humans in fundamental ways, and will always be limited by what they can learn from us.

The antiZionism faction of evangelicalism's civil war(s)?

 

There are no good guys V

 

MAGA : South Africa edition?

 

Darwinists can't show their work because the caterpillar ate it?

 Fossil Friday: How the Caterpillar Got Its Legs, or Not


This Fossil Friday features a caterpillar trapped in 45-million-year-old tree resin of Eocene Baltic amber. A caterpillar of course looks very much different from the butterfly into which it eventually develops. The wonderful metamorphosis of caterpillars into butterflies was first discovered by the British physician William Harvey (1651) and Dutch biologist Jan Swammerdam (1669), and famously featured in paintings by the pioneer entomologist Maria Sybilla Merian in her book Metamorphosis insectorum Surinamensium (Merian 1705).

The more primitive groups of insects like roaches, locusts, cicadas, and bugs have a so-called hemimetabolous development, where the nymph is similar in body plan to the adult insect, and with each molting grows in size and especially in length of the wing sheaths. However, most insect species, and indeed most animals on our planet, belong to Holometabola, the clade of insects with complete metamorphosis, which includes lace wings, beetles, bees and wasps, mosquitoes and flies, scorpionflies and fleas, as well as caddisflies and butterflies. In these insects the larva has a very different body plan from the adult insect. After the final larval stage there is a resting stage called pupa or chrysalis, in which the larval body is mostly dissolved into a kind of cell soup and rearranged into the adult body plan. This miraculous development was featured in the Illustra Media documentary Metamorphosis (Illustra Media 2011, Klinghoffer 2011) and poses a considerable conundrum for evolutionary biologists.

The Nature of the Conundrum

Only three hypotheses for the evolution of metamorphosis in insects have been presented: one, which suggests that the holometabolan larva is equivalent to the hemimetabolan nymph, fell out of favor decades ago. Another hypothesis suggested that the holometabolan caterpillar originated from a weird hybridization event of an insect with a velvet worm (Williamson 2009), which is generally considered as preposterous nonsense (Giribet 2009; also see Evolution News 2011). The currently preferred hypothesis is based on very old ideas of Harvey (1651) and Berlese (1913), which were further developed and elaborated by Truman & Riddiford (1999, 2002, 2019, 2022). Their so-called pronymph hypothesis suggests that the juvenile stages of hemimetabolous and holometabolous insects are not homologous, but that only the hemimetabolan pronymph is equivalent to the caterpillar larva, and the multiple nymphal instars are all equivalent to the pupal stage (also see Grimaldi & Engel 2005). However this hypothesis faces two formidable challenges:

The proymph is a non-feeding final embryonic stage, lacking functional mouth parts, which hatches from the egg and immediately molts into the first nymphal instar. The caterpillar larva is a pure feeding stage, basically a gut with legs. How could one evolve into the other with functional and advantageous intermediate forms?
Likewise, how could a single pupal stage, in which the complete body plan is dissolved and rearranged (including even the brain, see Truman et al. 2023 and Saplakoglu 2023), evolve via viable transitional forms from a normal series of nymphal instars that gradually transform into the adult with each molting? This appears to be not just unlikely but inconceivable and virtually impossible. Therefore, this hypothesis is controversial even among mainstream biologists, who have raised many objections to the interpretation of the pupa as only nymphal stage (e.g., DuPorte 1958). All that evolutionists have to offer are vague speculations such as this: “Perhaps 280 million years ago, through a chance mutation, some pro-nymphs failed to absorb all the yolk in their eggs, leaving a precious resource unused. In response to this unfavorable situation, some pro-nymphs gained a new talent: the ability to actively feed” (Jabr 2012). Easy peasy.
Anyway, we should expect that such a marvellous mode of development evolved from normal nymphal stages, if at all, after hundreds of millions of years of gradual change. However, that is not at all what the fossil record shows.

Actually, the first holometabolan insects are recorded from the same Pennsylvanian period as the first flying insects. Molecular clock data even suggest that Holometabola are at least as ancient (about 328-318 mya) as the earliest fossil record of flying insects (Labandeira 2011), or place “the origin of Holometabola in the Carboniferous (355 Ma), a date significantly older than previous paleontological and morphological phylogenetic reconstructions” (Wiegmann et al. 2009a, 2009b, Misof et al. 2014). My dear colleague and frequent co-author André Nel (2019) recently commented that “the late Carboniferous was also the time of the oldest known holometabolous insects, with complete metamorphosis (wasps, beetles, scorpionflies).” Indeed, fossils from larval and adult holometabolous insects of different orders have been found in late Carboniferous layers (see Kukalová-Peck 1997, Nel et al. 2007, 2013, Béthoux 2009, Kirejtshuk & Nel 2013, Kirejtshuk et al. 2014).

Early and Abrupt Appearance

This very early and abrupt appearance of the highly complex holometabolan metamorphosis represents one of the many examples of the waiting time problem, because it certainly required many coordinated mutations, which again required orders of magnitude more time to originate and spread than was available.

But any theory for the origin of the caterpillar larva needs to explain a lot more than that. While hemimetabolan nymphs and all adult winged insects have only three pairs of thoracic legs, the caterpillar larvae of butterflies and plant wasps additionally possess several pairs of chubby abdominal leglets called prolegs. “These prolegs pose an evolutionary mystery, and scientists have long grappled over how and why they got them” (Pallardy 2023). Where did those prolegs come from? There are three alternative hypotheses on the table:

Prolegs are serially homologous with thoracic legs, and thus derived from reactivated abdominal legs of crustaceans. This alternative was challenged and arguably refuted by previous evo-devo studies like Yue & Hua (2010) and Oka et al. (2010).
Prolegs are novel adaptations without immediate precursor structures.
Prolegs are derived from endites, internally facing structures of the crustacean limbs (e.g., Oka et al. 2010).
Now, a new study by Matsuoka et al. (2023) tested these three hypotheses with evo-devo data. The authors suggest that prolegs are novel traits, but based on the re-activation of pre-existing endite genes. The press release makes it very clear: prolegs “seem to be modified endites. As crustaceans evolved into insects, endites were largely lost. But in butterflies and moths, the gene for them got reactivated, providing caterpillars with their prolegs.” (Pallardy 2023).

To evaluate the feasibility of this hypothesis we first have to look at the distribution of prolegs within holometabolan insects, because this character is not hierarchically distributed as would be predicted by Darwinism, but instead is very incongruent (homoplastic): prolegs occur in the larvae of plant wasps, scorpionflies and fleas, caddisflies and butterflies, and some families of flies, but are absent in all other holometabolan groups. This incongruent pattern implies that prolegs were either reduced multiple times, or instead originated independently as a convergence, which is also suggested by developmental data (Suzuki & Palopoli 2001). Actually, Hinton (1955) proposed an independent origin of prolegs 27 times within Diptera. This alone is a grandiose empirical failure of Darwinian theory, because the unique anatomical similarity does not seem to be plausibly based on inheritance from a common ancestor. For the sake of the argument we will let this pass and just look at the new study.

Assessing the new study

As we have seen above, Darwinists now explain the origin of caterpillar leglets with the reactivation of a crustacean gene, that was dormant for maybe 100 million years. Seriously? After such a long period without function and without adaptive pressure to eliminate deleterious mutations, this gene should still have remained functional instead of been degraded by random genetic noise? This would be akin to a genuine miracle and arguably would violate an assumed law of evolution known as Dollo’s Law, which is based on the simple fact that history does not repeat itself (Gould 1970). Could this law be broken on some realistic time scale?

As shown by Rana (2017), there were several studies that evaluated the time frame in which the function of a gene is degraded and lost, so that it cannot be reactivated:

The study by Marshall et al. (1994) suggested that reactivation is reasonable over time scales of 0.5-6 million years. The authors concluded that “the reactivation of long (>10 million years)-unexpressed genes and dormant developmental pathways is not possible unless function is maintained by other selective constraints.”
Lynch & Conery (2000) showed that duplicated genes lose function by stochastic silencing within a few million years. Rana (2017) mentions that such duplicated genes can serve as proxy for dormant genes, because they are no longer under the influence of selection. Lynch and Conery found a half-life of 4 million years, which implies that function is lost after 16-24 million years.
Protas et al. (2007) showed that such a loss of function happens much more quickly, in about 1 million years, if it is advantageous and thus influenced by selection.
Horne (2010) studied the reactivation of eye sight in blind ostracods and commented that “there appear to be several well-documented examples of the reactivation of dormant genes, allowing the reappearance of ‘lost’ characters, in some cases after several [my emphasis] million years.” 

So, we have a realistic time frame of roughly 1-24 million years for the reactivation of a dormant gene. Indeed, short term reversals can be observed in lab experiments, e.g., concerning drug resistance among germs (Gouda et al. 2019). Anything longer than the mentioned time constraint is prohibited by Dollo’s Law of irreversibility (Gould 1970, Bull & Charnov 1985). Any apparent reactivation on longer time frames (see examples mentioned by Fryer 1999, Dingle 2003, Cruickshank & Paterson 2006, Horne 2010, and Rana 2017) cannot be reasonably explained with Darwinian processes, but requires intelligent design as more plausible and causally adequate explanation. Rana (2017) correctly emphasized that “it is not unusual for engineers to reuse the same design or to revisit a previously used design feature in a new prototype.”

But There Might Be a Loophole

Lynch (2022) recently found that “the long half‐life of enhancers, transcription factor binding sites, and protein−protein interaction motifs suggest that evolutionary reversals are possible after much longer periods of loss than previously suspected.” He concluded that “these data indicate that reactivation of these smaller functional units is possible after many millions of years and suggest that re-evolution of complex traits may occur through their loss and regain. Thus these data suggest that organisms need not surmount “the sheer statistical improbability … of evolution ever arriving at the same complex genic end‐result twice” (Müller in Gould 1970), rather “organisms might only need to retrace a single step such as the reacquisition of a transcription factor binding site in a cis‐regulatory element of a protein−protein interaction motif.”

However, there is a caveat, because the longer half-life does not apply to silenced protein coding genes, which would degrade much faster. Lynch (2022) explicitly admitted that “it seems unlikely that the genetic information for the development and function of the character can be maintained for long periods of time in the absence of the character (Bull & Charnov, 1985).” This could only be avoided in cases of serially homologous characters, when at least one instance of expression of this character would remain, so that selection could work against the deterioration of function by random copy errors. Therefore, Lynch (2022) suggested as a loophole for the violation of Dollo’s law “that the developmental programs required for the establishment of serially homologous characters may never really be lost so long as a single instance of the character remains.”

How Would Darwinists Argue?

So, let’s have a look at the possibility that this loophole could allow for the reactivation of the endite gene in caterpillars as suggested in the new study by Matsuoka et al. (2023). Probably, Darwinists would argue as follows: putative homologs of abdominal leg endites are present as pairs of eversible vesicles on the abdomen in some primitive wingless insects (apterygotes) like diplurans, bristletails, and silverfish that are known from (controversial) Devonian and Carboniferous fossils. Such vesicles are absent in all known winged insects and thus were reduced in the stem species of crown group pterygotes, which lived at least 323 million years ago in the earliest Pennsylvanian (Namurian) period according to the oldest fossil record (Brauckmann et al. 1994, Brauckmann & Schneider 1996, Prokop et al. 2005, Prokop & Hörnschemeyer 2016, Wolfe et al. 2016), and 410 million years ago in the Late Devonian period according to molecular clock estimates (Wiegmann et al. 2009b, Misof et al. 2014). This is 10 million years prior to the oldest fossil record of holometabolans (313.7 mya, Wolfe et al. 2016) and 60 million years prior to molecular clock estimates of their origin (350 mya, Wiegmann et al. 2009a, 2009b, Misof et al. 2014 / 328-318 mya according to Labandeira 2011). Therefore, the transformation would have occurred after 60-10 million years of gene suppression if the prolegs would belong to the ground plan of holometabolan insects. This would still reach or exceed the above mentioned limits imposed by Dollo’s law.

But it gets much worse for the evolutionist hypothesis. As we have seen above, larval prolegs do not belong to the ground plan of holometabolan insects (Peters et al. 2014), but developed independently multiple times in several crown groups among them. Therefore, we have to look at the age of those crown groups and not the age of Holometabola as a whole to evaluate the available window of time. Let’s be maximally generous and assume that larval prolegs are at least homologous in caddisflies (Trichoptera) and butterflies (Lepidoptera), so that they could belong to the ground plan of their common amphiesmenopteran ancestor. According to The Timetree of Life (Wiegmann et al. 2009a, 2009b) the relevant crown groups originated in Permian and Triassic periods: Lepidoptera, for example, about 230 million years ago and Amphiesmenoptera (the clade of Trichoptera+Lepidoptera) 282 million years ago. This molecular dating roughly agrees with the early fossil record of these groups. This implies that the reactivation of the dormant gene would have occurred after 128-41 million years (410/323-282 mya) of absence of any instantiated serially homologous character, which is simply impossible according to the limits proposed by mainstream evolutionary biology itself.

Is This Hard Science? Really?

Of course, such inconvenient facts do not bother evolutionary biologists at all, because the law obviously must have been broken, because we know it happened. Apparently laws do not mean much in evolutionary biology and can be suspended whenever a just-so story requires it. Sounds like hard science — not!

Why is it that you cannot find such simple calculations as we just made above anywhere in the mainstream scientific literature, to check if a scenario is plausible and compatible with other claims of evolutionary theory? Are the scientists really interested in testing their hypotheses and eventually finding out that they don’t hold water? It certainly doesn’t look like that to me. In spite of all the scientific efforts by Darwinists, the origin of complete metamorphosis in holometabolan insects remains an unsolved mystery, which is much better and causally more adequately explained by intelligent design.

As crooked as it gets?

 

Design is wrong by definition?