Some more on Dawinists' condescension toward Darwin sceptics

Suspicious? Darwin Defenders Have Two Modes of Communication -- One for the Uninitiated, One for the Guild

David Klinghoffer April 8, 2015 5:43 PM 

This is the last thing I'm going to write about Kevin D. Williamson's responses to Stephen Meyer's post here, "What Should Politicians Say When Asked About Evolution?" I've expended time on this only because Kevin is a reporter for National Review, of which I'm an alumnus and of which I cherish many fond memories, and so I take an avuncular interest in his work. Kevin tweeted, among other thoughts, that the theory of intelligent design is "basically a fraud":

Well, what about that? Actually, ID advocates address the scientific community and the general public -- and in much the same language. That's probably a bit of a self-imposed handicap for us. ID theorists like Meyer, Behe, or Dembski don't dumb it down. It likely would be strategic if they did, though less honest.

That's in contrast to the approach taken by what Steve Meyer calls "Darwin's Public Defenders." Is it unfair to characterize what they do as "defending," with all that implies of bias, of fixed and preconceived ideas? Not at all. They themselves call what they do "defending Darwin." Our colleague Casey Luskin writes at The Blaze about University of Kentucky biologist James Krupa's cri de coeur over at Slate, "Defending Darwin." Luskin contrasts it with the way professional evolutionary biologists write when they think only their own fraternity is listening.

Krupa says he gets some pushback from religious students on his campus who take issue with his presentation, his defense, of human evolution. But listen to the way he speaks of his mission as a teacher:

Some colleagues ask why I bother, as if I'm the one who's the provocateur. I remind them that evolution is the foundation of our science, and we simply can't shy away from explaining it. We don't avoid using the "g-word" when talking about gravitational theory, nor do we avoid the "c-word" when talking about cell theory. So why avoid talking about evolution, let alone defending it? After all, as a biologist, the mission of advancing evolution education is the most important aspect of my job.

In Krupa's own telling, "advancing" education in biology means "defending" Darwinian evolution, including the idea of a smooth, uncontroversial transition from pre-human to human:

Humans and monkeys evolved from a common ancestor. One ancestral population evolved in one direction toward modern-day monkeys, while another evolved toward humans.

The transition may in historical fact have been as simple as that -- but as Casey goes on to detail in his own article, the evidence itself is far from simple, as evolutionary scientists themselves admit.

Recently the prestigious scientific publisher Springer released a 2015 book titled "Macroevolution: Explanation, Interpretation and Evidence." One chapter, "Macroevolution in and around the hominin clade," co-written by respected George Washington University paleoanthropologist Bernard Wood and post-doc Mark Grabowski, reviews the fossil evidence for human evolution.

...

While lamenting "[t]he dearth of unambiguous evidence for ancestor-descendant lineages," they admit that the evolutionary origin of most hominin species is unknown:

[T]he evolutionary sequence for the majority of hominin lineages is unknown. Most hominin taxa, particularly early hominins, have no obvious ancestors, and in most cases ancestor-descendant sequences (fossil time series) cannot be reliably constructed...

After reviewing many fossil species, they observe: "At one time, or another, every early hominin discussed above has been presented as 'the' ancestor of later hominins, but in our opinion, only two pairs ... are plausible examples of ancestor-descendant relationships." Both examples say little about human evolution.

One pair is Australopithecus anamensis and its supposed descendant Australopithecus afarensis -- even though Au. anamensis is only known from a few jaw scraps and an otherwise highly fragmented skeleton, and is an entirely unimpressive "transitional form." The other possible "ancestor-descendant" pair pertains to two members of the genus Paranthropus, a gorilla-like offshoot whose lineage is thought to have gone extinct and is far removed from human origins.

In other words, according to two leading experts in a recent authoritative technical review, evolutionary relationships between hominins are in great doubt, and it's impossible to construct a credible lineage of ancestors and descendants leading from ape-like creatures to our own species Homo sapiens.

Kevin Williamson? Let's, I would say, all ease back on using words like "fraud" to describe ideas we don't like. Instead, tell us why you don't like them, without resorting to fallacious appeals to authority.

ID advocates are the ones who speak the same language to anyone willing to listen. Darwin "defenders" are the ones with separate modes of communication, distinct channels. One, for the uninitiated, including students and the lay public, speaks of Darwinian accounts of evolution as straightforward, uncomplicated fact, to be stoutly "defended," as readily demonstrable as gravity or the contents of the cell.

The other, intended for specialists, is far more candid about the challenges and frustrations in giving an account of human origins, among other things.

Having two manners of discourse -- one for the public, one for behind the scenes -- may not be evidence of fraud but it surely justifies some skepticism on the part of thoughtful adults.

Ps.Richard Dawkins has  claimed that any intellectually honest individual of average intelligence would readily be persuaded by the "overwhelming evidence"for Darwinism.More recently we've had Darwinian spokesmen claiming that,like the emperors clothing,only those especially 'sapien' members of the species homo are qualified to properly evaluate these matters and that the benighted masses ought to uncritically receive their edicts on these issues.Perhaps it's time for the Darwinian clergy convene some sought of council and issue an authoritative edict on the issue.

Materialists' protests notwithstanding;There is something to see here.

Why one should never buy a watch from a blind watchmaker

Why St. Denis Should Be the Patron Saint of Evolutionary Theory

Paul Nelson April 7, 2015 11:39 AM | 

Pain is a great teacher, I tell audiences. Take it from me. If PZ Myers hadn't designated April 7 "Paul Nelson Day" a few years ago, to lampoon me for my failure to explain the concept of "ontogenetic depth," I would never have learned just how intractable the problem of animal macroevolution would turn out to be.

"Oh, come on, Paul -- you're exaggerating," says the skeptical reader.

Not really. Before PZ's critique, ontogenetic depth (OD) seemed pretty obvious to me. The metric could be calculated as a straightforward product in any animal species, by multiplying the number of adult cell types by the number of cell divisions, from fertilization and first cleavage onward, yielding a good estimate for comparing developmental complexity among the animals. Smaller animals with fewer cell types should exhibit a lesser degree of OD than larger animals with more cell types. Easy, right?

Easy, that is, until one actually tries to calculate the value. And that's where PZ's original critique sent me off on a long path that continues today. I see more clearly than ever why the origin of developmental pathways requires a cause with foresight.

In presentations and writings from the mid 1990s until PZ's original OD critique, I had tended to say that the origin of animal body plans was mainly a question of (1) increasing cell number, and (2) increasing cellular differentiation. While both of those points are still true, they don't come close to touching the main problem. Whatever caused animal body plans to arise had to know where it (namely, the cause) was going. And the first step on that road is the hardest to take.

Given that the origin of animal body plans and the origin of animal development are intimately connected, this means that the problem of animal macroevolution will not be solved using the current limited toolkit of evolutionary theory. Foresight is a teleological, or design-based concept, and thus verboten (for philosophical, not evidential, reasons) at the moment in evolutionary biology. Concepts that are off-limits need a change in philosophy before they can be reintroduced into a discipline.

But you know what? You can see this for yourself. Try the following exercise.

On the Origin of the First Cleavage Stages in the C. elegans Worm

Caenorhabditis elegans is a model system about which biology has learned a great deal over the past forty years. Compared to mammals, or even fruit flies, C. elegans is a relatively simple animal, with 1,031 cells in its adult male phenotype (959 in the hermaphrodite), apportioned into a variety of specialized cell types and tissues within the tapering nematode body plan. C. eleganswas the first animal to have its entire genome mapped, and remarkably, the developmental lineage of every cell in the adult worm has been painstakingly tracked (work that won the Nobel Prize for John Sulston). From the perspective of detailed biological knowledge, it's hard not to fall in love with these little worms.

If one looks up "origin and evolution of nematodes," however, one will find papers on the phylogeny of the clade -- but all such papers presuppose the existence of the nematode body plan. (Some people find "body plan" a bothersome and unhelpful concept, laden with typological baggage. But as you'll see, the problem we'll examine would exist whether we placed C. elegans in Phylum Nematoda or not.) What one won't find are any papers showing how the nematode body plan itself came to be, from eukaryotic unicellular or colonial ancestors. And, as you'll see from the exercise below, there's a good reason for that.

Since "body plan" may seem too abstract, let's stick with well-understood C. elegans. Following fertilization, the first event in C. elegans development is the establishment by cell cleavage of the major founder lineages (see Figure 1). This cellular branching pattern, characteristic of C. elegans, is remarkable in many respects, but we should focus on just a couple of aspects. As a shorthand, let's call this character CEICP (for "C. elegans initial cleavage pattern").

Fig. 1. The initial cell cleavages following fertilization in C. elegans. AB and P1 are the primary daughter founder cells, giving rise to the AB, MS, and C lineages (containing mixtures of ectodermal and mesodermal cells), D (muscles), E (intestine), and P4 (germ cells). AbbreviatedCEICP in text.

First, let's consider the evolutionary framework for the puzzle. Like all animals, C. elegans must have descended from unicellular eukaryotic ancestors, perhaps via -- well, there is the mystery.

Figure 2 shows the road on which the evolutionary processes at the origin of C. elegans must travel, where the distance marker is increasing cell number. On the left, the starting point, is the unicellular eukaryotic state. On the right, our destination, lie the approximately 1,000 cells of the adult C. elegans.

Fig 2. The distance, measured in terms of cell number, between an ancestral single-celled eukaryote and adult C. elegans. Along this evolutionary branch, cell number must increase.

Okay, the question for the exercise: Where on this interval did CEICP first evolve?

Saint Denis Carrying His Head, and Evolving Initial Cleavage Patterns De Novo

"La distance n'y fait rien; il n'y a que la premiere pas qui coûte," observed Marie Anne de Vichy-Chamrond, marquise du Deffand: "The distance is nothing; it's only the first step that counts." She was a wise woman. Writing to d'Alembert in 1763 about the miracle of St. Denis -- who, according to legend, after his execution by decapitation at Montmarte carried his head for several miles through Paris, preaching a sermon as he went -- the Marquise observes that the entirety of the feat resides in the first step. The rest is routine.

So let's try to take the first step in the origin of CEICP, by placing the character at its correct location (i.e., the point of first appearance) on the phylogenetic road from single-celled eukaryote to adult worm.

Obviously CEICP cannot evolve very late (see Figure 3) -- anywhere in the neighborhood of 1,000 cells -- because CEICP is necessary to specify the terminal fates of those 1,000 cells. No CEICP, no worms.

Fig. 3. Origin of CEICP when total cell number is closer to 1,000 than 1.

So let's move CEICP to the other end of the interval, much closer to fewer cell numbers. (See Figure 4.) How about here?

Fig. 4. Origin of CEICP when total cell number is closer to 1 than 1,000.

But now we face two different, but related, problems:

• The exact features of CEICP, whose origin we want to explain -- namely, the precise decision-tree logic by which the zygote is subdivided into founder lineages with specific fates -- disappear entirely. Those features disappear because the normal functional role of CEICP is end-directed, aiming towards the adult worm, and the adult worm doesn't exist yet. Its evolution lies in the distant future. The processes of evolution, whether selection, drift, or some other mechanism, have no foresight.

• As cell numbers drop towards the single-celled state, it is unclear that functional cell types and tissues will continue to exist. Again the difficulty is descriptive. "Simpler" animals, such as Trichoplax, with only a handful of cell types, actually possess many more cells than C. elegans. The paucity of detailed anatomical or developmental descriptions of metazoan ancestors, for C. elegans or any other existing animal species -- beyond cartoon or nondescript "schmoo" drawings, at any rate -- testifies to the challenge of describing genuinely functional organisms where the total cell number of the adult has significantly decreased. Take away enough cells, and again, there's nothing left to explain, at least that we can actually describe.

In short: no worms, no functional need for CEICP.

So whatever CEICP was doing when it first came to be had nothing whatsoever to do with its current role.

This may not seem troublesome to evolutionary thinkers accustomed to explaining by using concepts such as "exaptation." Yet we still need to describe CEICP, because the character needs to evolve somehow in the phylogeny of C. elegans, at some point in the interval, and now description is impossible. The very features of greatest interest to us have been scrubbed away. There is nothing left to explain.

If Saint Denis carried his head through Paris, that would have been a bona fide miracle -- but really, only his first step mattered. If CEICP evolved via an undirected evolutionary process, that developmental character must have come into existence by violating what is thought to be the case for natural selection, or drift, or any other realistic evolutionary mechanism. It's the first step that counts in explaining the origin of any developmental pathway, because everything downstream relies on the starting point.

And the first step remains unexplained.

This Problem Lives Everywhere in Explaining the Macroevolution of Animals

Ontogenetic depth was my first attempt to grasp how and why animal developmental pathways showed varying degrees of complexity, and to measure those differences. The attempt failed (OD-ed, if you will) because the phenomena in question go well beyond the crude metrics of cell type and number of divisions from fertilization.

Thanks to PZ Myers's annual prodding, however, I have thought much more deeply about the problem of evolving animal development than I ever expected to do. And, in searching the literature (indeed, in conversations with PZ himself, at Society for Developmental Biology meetings), I've found that current attempts to solve the problem fall hopelessly short of the mark. I've focused here on C. elegans, because the species is (relatively) well understood, but the same general difficulty applies to the origin of any animal group. Go into the literature yourself, and you'll see what I mean.

Current evolutionary theory falls short because it excludes a priori notions such as foresight -- not for any evidential reason, but because foresight requires mind, and mind is philosophically unacceptable within the prevailing materialist outlook.

On seeking clarity in the design debate II.

I've noticed certain recurring approaches by Darwinists in their attempts to cloud the issues re:the design debate what follows is a lists of 5 such approaches along with my reasons for calling fudge in each instance.

  1)Downplaying the relevance of abiogenesis to the design debate.I call fudge because obviously if one is arguing that Darwinian evolution is the sole cause of the design/the appearance of design in biology any design/appearance of design in the pre-evolutionary proto-life constitutes a serious indeed potentially fatal difficulty.The autotrophic unicellular lifeforms that were present at the very beginning of the history of life have continued with us down to the present essentially unchanged,while numerous multicellular species have long passed off the scene.We can thus conclude that not only was the proto-life designed but it was as at least as well designed as any succeeding life.This utter failure to arrive at the simple beginning upon which their argument depends and flippant waving away of sophisticated pre-evolutionary design might play well to the gallery but well read neutrals rightly insists on an actual response.

 2)Treating as self-evident the extrapolation from micro-evolution to macro evolution.I call fudge because Darwinian apologists are appealing to processes that mainly produce a loss/suppression of biological information to explain the massive increase in biological information that has occurred over the course of the history of life,also this particular extrapolation is not based on any observations either in the present or in the fossil record Darwin himself admitted as much.More recently astronomer Carl Sagan(that champion of creationism) stated in his book 'Broca's brain' that the fossil record seems  consistent with a special creation.Thus it seems fair to insists that when Darwinists use the term evolution they specify whether they're referring to micro-evolution(which has never been controversial) or macro-evolution which has quite a bit of controversy(even among its advocates)to deal with.

  3)The insistence of Darwinists in portraying the design debate as a clash between religion/philosophy and science/modernity.I call fudge at this gross oversimplification.Evolutionary ideas were being discussed among western and eastern philosophers from antiquity,The notion of theistic evolutionism is therefore nothing new and not so much a retreat in the face of onslaught of secular Darwinists as a restoring of evolutionism to its roots.Also many who are expressing scepticism at Darwinian macro-evolution are secular in outlook (some are concerned by what they see as a corruption of science by politics.)and are primarily concerned by the kind of slipshod scholarship and philosophy that is being passed off as science.

  4)Portraying any expression of scepticism about Darwinism as creationism or any Darwin sceptic as a creationist.Fudge again the obvious implication is that there are no truly scientific objections to  Darwinism.Why then are Darwinists so busily striving to keep scientific objections to certain aspects of the their theory(many of which have been raised by evolutionists themselves)from being aired or discussed in public.Have Darwinists ever considered that their habit of treating the public like children might be triggering more scepticism about their position among those they're seeking to win over.

 5)Claiming that majority of educated people subscribe to Darwinism.Fudge,even if we grant that this proposition is true would it be the first time that the intelligentsia subscribed en masse to some kind of pseudo-scientific hokum we can think of alchemy,astrology,geo-centrism,more recently eugenics.Truth has never been determined by popular vote and there have been numerous periods in human history where the intelligentsia (and indeed the masses) have been deluded by subsequently discredited ideas.Many are convinced ,for various reasons,that we are now witnessing something similar with Darwinism. 

  

     

A lively discussion about alchemy then and now.

David Berlinski Crosses Swords with Pharyngula's PZ Meyers

Robert Crowther March 16, 2005 10:40 AM 

David Berlinski sent me the following e-mail this morning and encouraged me to share it here. The exchange below comes after the recent publication of David's op-ed in the Wichita Eagle.

Someone named PZ Myers posted an indignant response to my op-ed piece to the Panda's Thumb. Our correspondence follows. By all means post it to the Discovery Institute's web site. Best, D

Dear Dr. Myers:

I read with interest your criticisms of my little op-ed piece for the Wichita Eagle; and very indignant they were. Your references to my most recent book, “The Secrets of the Vaulted Sky”, were, however, in error, the result, no doubt, of the fact that you have not read the book, and, I am sure, do not plan to do so. Please allow me to quote the book's first words: "Astrology is a failed science in the simple but inescapable sense that in this country and in Europe, it is no longer taken seriously by scientists." My book is hardly a defense of astrology, as every careful reviewer has taken pains to note. The very idea is absurd. Neither is it a critique of astrology. It is, instead, a history of astrological doctrine and an account of the lives of various astrologers from Babylonian to modern times. Quite fascinating, if I do say so myself. And instructive as well, since, like Darwinian theories, astrological theories were once treated with immense respect by serious and responsible scientific figures like Johannes Kepler. Although psychological advice is not in my line, the example of Kepler's life might suggest some self-scrutiny on your part. Here is a man of evident genius, and one moreover prepared to discard with great ruthlessness what he considered the vulgar aspects of 15th century astrological doctrine. No one could have been more contemptuous of what Kepler considered the abuse of astrology. What he was unable to do was free himself of the conviction that astrological theories were fundamentally correct. That act of intellectual liberations was beyond him.

As for field studies reporting weak to non-existence selection effects in the wild, do have a look at J.G. Kingsolver, et al, "The Strength of Phenotypic Selection in Natural Populations (/The American Naturalist/, March 2001), a paper which must now be considered more up-to-date than Endler's well-known 1986 monograph on the same topic.

I would be as prepared as the next man to believe that in Darwinian theories you are in possession of theories worth defending if only you would do a better job defending them.

Sincerely yours, David Berlinski

PZ Myers wrote:

Yes, I am justifiably indignant. Your editorial was a slurry of misconceptions, deceptions, and lies; have you no shame at all?

David Berlinski wrote:

Dear Dr. Myers --All that indignation might be put to better effect had it not crossed my desk advanced by absurd criticisms of a book you have never read, and supported neither by argument nor a rational appeal to the evidence. A defense like yours does more to speed Darwin's theory toward the undertaker's parlour than any criticism I might make. Add just a few more words -- something I am persuaded you can do -- and you will cover the cost of Darwin's eternity slippers as well as his burial plot. A sense of shame? My poor baffled booby. I am quite sure that in the faculty lounge where you take coffee, your colleagues are apt to slap you on the back collegially and assure you that this is all very fine stuff -- just swell; but the universe, thank God, is not the university, and men and women who have read more than ten good books and are not afraid of ghosts will consider the rhetorical force of your words and simply chuckle to themselves. When you have an argument to make, or specific evidence from the literature to cite, you may by all means write back, and I will answer with all of my well-known equanimity of spirit.

DB

Jehovah's Witnesses remain clear on the concept.

Why Do Jehovah’s Witnesses Maintain Political Neutrality?

Jehovah’s Witnesses remain politically neutral for religious reasons, based on what the Bible teaches. We do not lobby, vote for political parties or candidates, run for government office, or participate in any action to change governments. We believe that the Bible gives solid reasons for following this course.

• We follow the example of Jesus, who refused to accept political office. (John 6:15) He taught his disciples to be “no part of the world” and made it clear that they should not take sides in political issues.—John 17:14, 16; 18:36; Mark 12:13-17.
• We are loyal to God’s Kingdom, which Jesus spoke of when he said: “This good news of the Kingdom will be preached in all the inhabited earth.” (Matthew 24:14) As representatives of God’s Kingdom, commissioned to proclaim its coming, we remain neutral in the political affairs of all countries, including the one where we live.—2 Corinthians 5:20; Ephesians 6:20.
• By remaining neutral, we are able to speak freely to people of all political persuasions about the good news of God’s Kingdom. We try to show by our words and practices that we rely on God’s Kingdom to solve the world’s problems.—Psalm 56:11.
• Since we avoid political divisions, we are united as an international brotherhood. (Colossians 3:14; 1 Peter 2:17) In contrast, religions that meddle in politics divide their members.—1 Corinthians 1:10.

Respect for governments. Although we do not take part in politics, we respect the authority of the governments under which we live. This is in harmony with the Bible’s command: “Let every person be in subjection to the superior authorities.” (Romans 13:1) We obey the law, pay taxes, and cooperate with efforts of the government to provide for the welfare of its citizens. Rather than participate in any attempt to subvert the government, we follow the Bible’s counsel to pray for “kings and all those who are in positions of authority,” especially when they are making decisions that could affect freedom of worship.—1 Timothy 2:1, 2, footnote.

We also respect the rights of others to make their own decisions in political matters. For example, we do not disrupt elections or interfere with those who choose to vote.

Is our neutrality a modern innovation? No. The apostles and other first-century Christians took an identical stand toward governmental authority. The book Beyond Good Intentions states: “Though they believed they were obligated to honor the governing authorities, the early Christians did not believe in participating in political affairs.” Similarly, the book On the Road to Civilization says that early Christians “would not hold political office.”

Is our political neutrality a threat to national security? No. We are peace-loving citizens from whom governmental authorities have nothing to fear. Consider a 2001 report produced by the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine. Commenting on our political neutrality, the report stated: “Today some may dislike this stand of Jehovah’s Witnesses; it was a basic reason for their being accused by the totalitarian Nazi and Communist regimes of the past.” Yet, even under Soviet repression, the Witnesses “remained law-abiding citizens. They honestly and selflessly worked in collective farms and at industrial plants and presented no threat to the Communist regime.” Likewise today, the beliefs and practices of Jehovah’s Witnesses do not, the report concluded, “undermine the security and integrity of any state.”

A line in the Sand X

Revelation17:16,17ASV"And the ten horns which thou sawest, and the beast, these shall hate the harlot, and shall make her desolate and naked, and shall eat her flesh, and shall burn her utterly with fire.

17 For God did put in their hearts to do his mind, and to come to one mind, and to give their kingdom unto the beast, until the words of God should be accomplished."

Indiana's anti-LGBT law a preview for 2016?

By LZ Granderson, CNN Contributor

Updated 2259 GMT (0659 HKT) March 27, 2015

CNN)Barney Frank, to say the least, knows his way around politics. In a Chicago appearance recently, the retired congressman had the sold-out crowd at the Center on Halsted well entertained as he detailed his 45-year journey in public service.

Frank, you'll recall, was the first member of Congress to marry someone of the same-sex while in office, and among other things, he had some choice words for closeted politicians who vote against LGBT rights.

And when someone in the audience asked his thoughts about a current ballot proposal in California that would legalize killing gay people, he said he wasn't aware of the measure but told the young man not to "worry yourself about the crazy people.""We're winning," he said before joking that the name of the California proposal -- "The Sodomite Suppression Act" -- sounded like a porno.

"We're winning" is a phrase I've heard a lot recently as it pertains to LGBT rights. And I guess if you look at where the country was 10 years ago, we definitely are. That's assuming you are part of the "we" that believes LGBT people should have the same rights as their heterosexual/cisgender counterparts.

Or at least not "be put to death by bullets to the head or by any other convenient method" as the California proposal suggests. (It's unclear whether Matt McLaughlin, the Huntington Beach lawyer who submitted the proposal, is being sincere or just an ass, but the fact remains that if he collects enough signatures there appears to be no legal way of stopping it from going on the ballot.)Frank's "we're winning" declaration was oddly timed, too. Less than 24 hours after his talk, the governor in the next state over signed an anti-LGBT "religious freedom" bill into the law -- one that allows businesses to challenge in court local laws that forbid discriminating against customers based on sexual orientation.

"Many people of faith feel their religious liberty is under attack by government action," Indiana Gov. Mike Pence said. Not to be outdone, Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson said he would sign a similar bill that is expected to reach his desk shortly.

So we have: A fledgling proposal to kill the gays out West, laws to deny us goods and services in the heartland, and if the rhetoric of 2016 hopeful Ted Cruz is a barometer, a federal ban on same-sex marriage still on the GOP table.

Like others, I had foolishly hoped the upcoming general election would be one defined by bold ideas.

Instead, it looks like it's going to be dragged down to a replay of Pat Buchanan's "cultural war" speech, during which he told the 1992 Republican National Convention: "We stand with (George H.W. Bush) against the amoral idea that gay and lesbian couples should have the same standing in law as married men and women" and later followed with "There is a religious war going on in this country. It is a cultural war, as critical to the kind of nation we shall be as the Cold War itself. For this war is for the soul of America."

Progressives enjoyed poking fun at Cruz, the tea party darling when he announced his presidential bid, but according to the American Civil Liberties Union, "the Indiana RFRA [Religious Freedom Restoration Act] is one of 24 introduced in 15 states this year that could allow someone to use their religious beliefs to discriminate. Numerous other bills specifically single out the LGBT community for unequal treatment."It's not just lawmakers. Alabama Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore made headlines for telling state officials and judges to disregard a federal court ruling that overturned the state's ban on same-sex marriage.

And this week. a federal judge in Cruz's home state of Texas blocked a federal rule that would have granted married, same-sex couples access to the Family and Medical Leave Act, a law that helps employees stay home to take care of a severely ill spouse.

It seems clear that even if Cruz doesn't capture the GOP nomination, whoever does will undoubtedly make some concessions to appease LGBT rights backlash currently underway in conservative states.

That could include one of Cruz's agenda items: a constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage, usurping whatever ruling comes out of the Supreme Court in June, when the court is expected to rule on whether such marriage is constitutionally protected.

And the NCAA can issue strongly worded statements, as it did over Indiana's new anti-LGBT law, and -- along with others in corporate America -- can threaten financial repercussions for discriminatory laws.

But at the end of the day, it's about votes. Frank said when progressives get angry they march in the streets, and when conservatives get mad they march to the polls. If that holds true in 2016, "winning" is going to feel very strange.

Indeed, most 2016 hopefuls on the right have been reluctant to express support for same-sex marriage.

According to former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, "it's like asking someone who's Jewish to start serving bacon-wrapped shrimp in their deli."

Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal said, "I certainly will support Ted Cruz and others that are talking about making ... a constitutional amendment to allow states to continue to define marriage."Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker has a long history of fighting against same sex marriage and civil unions.

And Ben Carson said jail turns people gay, so there's that. (He later apologized)

Gallup polls may suggest voters nationwide are more gay-friendly, but the trend on the state level tells a different story. Perhaps we're witnessing the final gasp of a long-ago biases.

Or maybe those biases are having a rebirth we had underestimated.

Barney Frank said he believes Republicans want the Supreme Court to rule in favor of same-sex marriage to provide political cover in the GOP primary. That may be true, but it's doubtful that will allow a candidate to avoid taking a position on the wave of so-called "religious freedom" bills currently snaking through red-state legislatures.

Or to sidestep the topic of a constitutional amendment when it's raised in a debate or at a campaign stop -- especially with Republicans controlling both the House and the Senate.

Once again, our democracy is vexed by a woefully inadequate two-party system. Socially liberal, fiscally conservative independent voters may want to consider the full depth of a candidate's policies before making a decision, but ultimately it may come down to a single-question: to discriminate against LGBT people or not.

Unfortunately, the pending 2016 "cultural war" does not allow for much wiggle room beyond that.

I know Frank and others have said "we're winning" but sitting here, watching the life being sucked out of democracy year in and year out feels more like a defeat than a victory.