Some more unsettled science.

Selection and Speciation: Why Darwinism Is False

Jonathan Wells May 15, 2009 10:00 AM

 Coyne writes that Darwin "had little direct evidence for selection acting in natural populations." Actually, Darwin had no direct evidence for natural selection; the best he could do in The Origin of Species was "give one or two imaginary illustrations." It wasn't until a century later that Bernard Kettlewell provided what he called "Darwin's missing evidence" for natural selection -- a shift in the proportion of light- and dark-colored peppered moths that Kettlewell attributed to camouflage and bird predation.⁴⁰

Since then, biologists have found lots of direct evidence for natural selection. Coyne describes some of it, including an increase in average beak depth of finches on the Galápagos Islands and a change in flowering time in wild mustard plants in Southern California -- both due to drought. Like Darwin, Coyne also compares natural selection to the artificial selection used in plant and animal breeding.

But these examples of selection -- natural as well as artificial -- involve only minor changes within existing species. Breeders were familiar with such changes before 1859, which is why Darwin did not write a book titled How Existing Species Change Over Time; he wrote a book titled The Origin of Species by Means of Natural Selection. "Darwin called his great work On the Origin of Species," wrote Harvard evolutionary biologist Ernst Mayr in 1982, "for he was fully conscious of the fact that the change from one species into another was the most fundamental problem of evolution." Yet, Mayr had written earlier, "Darwin failed to solve the problem indicated by the title of his work." In 1997, evolutionary biologist Keith Stewart Thomson wrote: "A matter of unfinished business for biologists is the identification of evolution's smoking gun," and "the smoking gun of evolution is speciation, not local adaptation and differentiation of populations." Before Darwin, the consensus was that species can vary only within certain limits; indeed, centuries of artificial selection had seemingly demonstrated such limits experimentally. "Darwin had to show that the limits could be broken," wrote Thomson, "so do we."⁴¹

In 2004, Coyne and H. Allen Orr published a detailed book titled Speciation, in which they noted that biologists have not been able to agree on a definition of "species" because no single definition fits every case. For example, a definition applicable to living, sexually reproducing organisms might make no sense when applied to fossils or bacteria. In fact, there are more than 25 definitions of "species." What definition is best? Coyne and Orr argued that, "when deciding on a species concept, one should first identify the nature of one's 'species problem,' and then choose the concept best at solving that problem." Like most other Darwinists, Coyne and Orr favor Ernst Mayr's "biological species concept" (BSC), according to which "species are groups of interbreeding natural populations that are reproductively isolated from other such groups." In Why Evolution Is True, Coyne explains that the biological species concept is "the one that evolutionists prefer when studying speciation, because it gets you to the heart of the evolutionary question. Under the BSC, if you can explain how reproductive barriers evolve, you've explained the origin of species."⁴²

Theoretically, reproductive barriers arise when geographically separated populations diverge genetically. But Coyne describes five "cases of real-time speciation" that involve a different mechanism: chromosome doubling, or "polyploidy."⁴³ This usually follows hybridization between two existing plant species. Most hybrids are sterile because their mismatched chromosomes can't separate properly to produce fertile pollen and ovaries; occasionally, however, the chromosomes in a hybrid spontaneously double, producing two perfectly matched sets and making reproduction possible. The result is a fertile plant that is reproductively isolated from the two parents -- a new species, according to the BSC.

But speciation by polyploidy ("secondary speciation") has been observed only in plants. It does not provide evidence for Darwin's theory that species originate through natural selection, nor for the neo-Darwinian theory of speciation by geographic separation and genetic divergence. Indeed, according to evolutionary biologist Douglas J. Futuyma, polyploidy "does not confer major new morphological characteristics... [and] does not cause the evolution of new genera" or higher levels in the biological hierarchy.⁴⁴

So secondary speciation does not solve Darwin's problem. Only primary speciation -- the splitting of one species into two by natural selection -- would be capable of producing the branching-tree pattern of Darwinian evolution. But no one has ever observed primary speciation. Evolution's smoking gun has never been found.⁴⁵

Or has it?

In Why Evolution Is True, Coyne claims that primary speciation was observed in an experiment reported in 1998. Curiously, Coyne did not mention it in the 2004 book he co-authored with Orr, but his 2009 account of it is worth quoting in full:

We can even see the origin of a new, ecologically diverse bacterial species, all within a single laboratory flask. Paul Rainey and his colleagues at Oxford University placed a strain of the bacteria Pseudomonas fluorescens in a small vessel containing nutrient broth, and simply watched it. (It's surprising but true that such a vessel actually contains diverse environments. Oxygen concentration, for example, is highest on the top and lowest on the bottom.) Within ten days--no more than a few hundred generations--the ancestral free-floating 'smooth' bacterium had evolved into two additional forms occupying different parts of the beaker. One, called 'wrinkly spreader,' formed a mat on top of the broth. The other, called 'fuzzy spreader,' formed a carpet on the bottom. The smooth ancestral type persisted in the liquid environment in the middle. Each of the two new forms was genetically different from the ancestor, having evolved through mutation and natural selection to reproduce best in their respective environments. Here, then, is not only evolution but speciation occurring in the lab: the ancestral form produced, and coexisted with, two ecologically different descendants, and in bacteria such forms are considered distinct species. Over a very short time, natural selection in Pseudomonas yielded a small-scale 'adaptive radiation,' the equivalent of how animals or plants form species when they encounter new environments on an oceanic island.⁴⁶

But Coyne omits the fact that when the ecologically different forms were placed back into the same environment, they "suffered a rapid loss of diversity," according to Rainey. In bacteria, an ecologically distinct population (called an "ecotype") may constitute a separate species, but only if the distinction is permanent. As evolutionary microbiologist Frederick Cohan wrote in 2002, species in bacteria "are ecologically distinct from one another; and they are irreversibly separate."⁴⁷ The rapid reversal of ecological distinctions when the bacterial populations in Rainey's experiment were put back into the same environment refutes Coyne's claim that the experiment demonstrated the origin of a new species.

Exaggerating the evidence to prop up Darwinism is not new. In the Galápagos finches, average beak depth reverted to normal after the drought ended. There was no net evolution, much less speciation. Yet Coyne writes in Why Evolution Is True that "everything we require of evolution by natural selection was amply documented" by the finch studies. Since scientific theories stand or fall on the evidence, Coyne's tendency to exaggerate the evidence does not speak well for the theory he is defending. When a 1999 booklet published by The U. S. National Academy of Sciences called the change in finch beaks "a particularly compelling example of speciation," Berkeley law professor and Darwin critic Phillip E. Johnson wrote in The Wall Street Journal: "When our leading scientists have to resort to the sort of distortion that would land a stock promoter in jail, you know they are in trouble."⁴⁸

So there are observed instances of secondary speciation -- which is not what Darwinism needs -- but no observed instances of primary speciation, not even in bacteria. British bacteriologist Alan H. Linton looked for confirmed reports of primary speciation and concluded in 2001: "None exists in the literature claiming that one species has been shown to evolve into another. Bacteria, the simplest form of independent life, are ideal for this kind of study, with generation times of twenty to thirty minutes, and populations achieved after eighteen hours. But throughout 150 years of the science of bacteriology, there is no evidence that one species of bacteria has changed into another."⁴⁹

Notes

⁴⁰ Coyne, Why Evolution Is True, p. 116.

Darwin, The Origin of Species, Chapter IV (p. 70). Available online (2009) here.

H. B. D. Kettlewell, "Darwin's Missing Evidence," Scientific American 200 (March, 1959): 48-53.

⁴¹ Ernst Mayr, The Growth of Biological Thought (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1982), p. 403.

Ernst Mayr, Populations, Species and Evolution (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1963), p. 10.

Keith Stewart Thomson, "Natural Selection and Evolution's Smoking Gun," American Scientist 85 (1997): 516-518.

⁴² Jerry A. Coyne & H. Allen Orr, Speciation (Sunderland, MA: Sinauer Associates, 2004), p. 25-39.

Coyne, Why Evolution Is True, p. 174.

⁴³ Coyne, Why Evolution Is True, p. 188.

⁴⁴ Douglas J. Futuyma, Evolution (Sunderland, MA: Sinauer Associates, 2005), p. 398.

⁴⁵ Wells, The Politically Incorrect Guide to Darwinism and Intelligent Design, Chapter Five ("The Ultimate Missing Link"), pp. 49-59.

⁴⁶ Coyne, Why Evolution Is True, pp. 129-130.

⁴⁷ Paul B. Rainey & Michael Travisano. "Adaptive radiation in a heterogeneous environment,"Nature 394 (1998): 69-72.

Frederick M. Cohan, "What Are Bacterial Species?" Annual Review of Microbiology 56 (2002): 457-482. Available online (2009) here.

⁴⁸ Coyne, Why Evolution Is True, p. 134.

National Academy of Sciences, Science and Creationism: A View from the National Academy of Sciences, Second edition (Washington, DC: National Academy of Sciences Press, 1999), Chapter on "Evidence Supporting Biological Evolution," p. 10. Available online (2009) here.

Phillip E. Johnson, "The Church of Darwin," The Wall Street Journal (August 16, 1999): A14. Available online (2009) here.

⁴⁹ Alan H. Linton, "Scant Search for the Maker," The Times Higher Education Supplement (April 20, 2001), Book Section, p. 29.

The science is not settled;But don't take my word for it.

Welcome to the Top Ten Scientific Problems with Biological and Chemical Evolution

Casey Luskin January 2, 2015 12:00 AM 

Editor's note: This is Part 1 of a 10-part series based upon Casey Luskin's chapter, "The Top Ten Scientific Problems with Biological and Chemical Evolution," in the volume More than Myth, edited by Paul Brown and Robert Stackpole (Chartwell Press, 2014). When the series is complete, the full chapter will be posted online.

"There are no weaknesses in the theory of evolution."¹ So said Eugenie Scott, the de facto head of the Darwin lobby, while speaking to the media in response to the Texas State Board of Education's 2009 vote to require students to learn about both the scientific evidence for and against neo-Darwinian evolution.

For those who follow the debate over origins, Dr. Scott's words are as unsurprising as they are familiar. It seems that almost on a daily basis, we find the news media quoting evolutionary scientists declaring that materialist accounts of biological and chemical evolution are "fact." Students who take college-preparatory or college-level courses on evolution are warned that doubting Darwinism is tantamount to committing intellectual suicide -- you might as well proclaim the Earth is flat.² Such bullying is enough to convince many that it's much easier on your academic standing, your career, and your reputation to just buy into Darwinism. The few holdouts who remain are intimidated into silence.

But is it true that there are "no weaknesses" in evolutionary theory? Are those who express doubts about Darwinism displaying courage, or are they fools that want to take us back to the dark ages and era of the flat Earth?³ Thankfully, it's very easy to test these questions: all one must do is examine the technical scientific literature and inquire whether there are legitimate scientific challenges to chemical and biological evolution.

This chapter will review some of this literature, and show that there are numerous legitimate scientific challenges to core tenets of Darwinian theory, as well as predominant theories of chemical evolution. Those who harbor doubts about Darwinism need not be terrified by academic bullies who pretend there is no scientific debate to be had.

Problem 1: No Viable Mechanism to Generate a Primordial Soup

According to conventional thinking among origin of life theorists, life arose via unguided chemical reactions on the early Earth some 3 to 4 billion years ago. Most theorists believe that there were many steps involved in the origin of life, but the very first step would have involved the production of a primordial soup -- a water-based sea of simple organic molecules -- out of which life arose. While the existence of this "soup" has been accepted as unquestioned fact for decades, this first step in most origin-of-life theories faces numerous scientific difficulties.

In 1953, a graduate student at the University of Chicago named Stanley Miller, along with his faculty advisor Harold Urey, performed experiments hoping to produce the building blocks of life under natural conditions on the early Earth.⁴ These "Miller-Urey experiments" intended to simulate lightning striking the gasses in the early Earth's atmosphere. After running the experiments and letting the chemical products sit for a period of time, Miller discovered that amino acids -- the building blocks of proteins -- had been produced.

For decades, these experiments have been hailed as a demonstration that the "building blocks" of life could have arisen under natural, realistic Earthlike conditions,⁵ corroborating the primordial soup hypothesis. However, it has also been known for decades that the Earth's early atmosphere was fundamentally different from the gasses used by Miller and Urey.

The atmosphere used in the Miller-Urey experiments was primarily composed of reducing gasses like methane, ammonia, and high levels of hydrogen. Geochemists now believe that the atmosphere of the early Earth did not contain appreciable amounts of these components. (Reducing gasses are those which tend to donate electrons during chemical reactions.) UC Santa Cruz origin-of-life theorist David Deamer explains this in the journal Microbiology & Molecular Biology Reviews:

This optimistic picture began to change in the late 1970s, when it became increasingly clear that the early atmosphere was probably volcanic in origin and composition, composed largely of carbon dioxide and nitrogen rather than the mixture of reducing gases assumed by the Miller-Urey model. Carbon dioxide does not support the rich array of synthetic pathways leading to possible monomers...⁶

Likewise, an article in the journal Science stated: "Miller and Urey relied on a 'reducing' atmosphere, a condition in which molecules are fat with hydrogen atoms. As Miller showed later, he could not make organics in an 'oxidizing' atmosphere."⁷ The article put it bluntly: "the early atmosphere looked nothing like the Miller-Urey situation."⁸ Consistent with this, geological studies have not uncovered evidence that a primordial soup once existed.⁹

There are good reasons to understand why the Earth's early atmosphere did not contain high concentrations of methane, ammonia, or other reducing gasses. The earth's early atmosphere is thought to have been produced by outgassing from volcanoes, and the composition of those volcanic gasses is related to the chemical properties of the Earth's inner mantle. Geochemical studies have found that the chemical properties of the Earth's mantle would have been the same in the past as they are today.¹⁰ But today, volcanic gasses do not contain methane or ammonia, and are not reducing.

A paper in Earth and Planetary Science Letters found that the chemical properties of the Earth's interior have been essentially constant over Earth's history, leading to the conclusion that "Life may have found its origins in other environments or by other mechanisms."¹¹ So drastic is the evidence against pre-biotic synthesis of life's building blocks that in 1990 the Space Studies Board of the National Research Council recommended that origin of life investigators undertake a "reexamination of biological monomer synthesis under primitive Earthlike environments, as revealed in current models of the early Earth."¹²

Because of these difficulties, some leading theorists have abandoned the Miller-Urey experiment and the "primordial soup" theory it is claimed to support. In 2010, University College London biochemist Nick Lane stated the primordial soup theory "doesn't hold water" and is "past its expiration date."¹³ Instead, he proposes that life arose in undersea hydrothermal vents. But both the hydrothermal vent and primordial soup hypotheses face another major problem.

Chemical Evolution Is Dead in the Water

Assume for a moment that there was some way to produce simple organic molecules on the early Earth. Perhaps they did form a "primordial soup," or perhaps these molecules arose near some hydrothermal vent. Either way, origin of life theorists must then explain how amino acids or other key organic molecules linked up to form long chains (polymers) like proteins (or RNA).

Chemically speaking, however, the last place you'd want to link amino acids into chains would be a vast water-based environment like the "primordial soup" or underwater near a hydrothermal vent. As the National Academy of Sciences acknowledges, "Two amino acids do not spontaneously join in water. Rather, the opposite reaction is thermodynamically favored."¹⁴ In other words, water breaks protein chains back down into amino acids (or other constituents), making it very difficult to produce proteins (or other polymers) in the primordial soup.

Materialists lack good explanations for these first, simple steps which are necessary to the origin-of-life. Chemical evolution is literally dead in the water.

References:

[1.] Eugenie Scott, quoted in Terrence Stutz, "State Board of Education debates evolution curriculum," Dallas Morning News (January 22, 2009), also requoted in Ed Stoddard, "Evolution gets added boost in Texas schools," Reuters.com athttp://blogs.reuters.com/faithworld/2009/01/23/evolution-gets-added-boost-in-texas-schools/

[2.] Karl W. Giberson, Saving Darwin: How to be a Christian and Believe in Evolution, p. 53 (HarperOne, 2008) ("biologists today consider the common ancestry of all life a fact on par with the sphericity of the earth").

[3.] In any case, it's largely a myth that Western Civilization once believed in a flat earth. See Jeffrey Burton Russell, "The Myth of the Flat Earth," at http://www.veritas-ucsb.org/library/russell/FlatEarth.html

[4.] See Stanley L. Miller, "A Production of Amino Acids under Possible Primitive Earth Conditions," Science, 117: 528-529 (May 15, 1953).

[5.] See Jonathan Wells, Icons of Evolution: Why Much of What We Teach About Evolution Is Wrong, (Washington D.C.: Regnery, 2000); Casey Luskin, "Not Making the Grade: An Evaluation of 19 Recent Biology Textbooks and Their Use of Selected Icons of Evolution," Discovery Institute (September 26, 2011), at http://www.evolutionnews.org/DiscoveryInstitute_2011TextbookReview.pdf

[6.] David W. Deamer, "The First Living Systems: a Bioenergetic Perspective," Microbiology & Molecular Biology Reviews, 61:239 (1997).

[7.] Jon Cohen, "Novel Center Seeks to Add Spark to Origins of Life," Science, 270: 1925-1926 (December 22, 1995).

[8.] Ibid.

[9.] Antonio C. Lasaga, H. D. Holland, and Michael J. Dwyer, "Primordial Oil Slick," Science, 174: 53-55 (October 1, 1971).

[10.] Kevin Zahnle, Laura Schaefer, and Bruce Fegley, "Earth's Earliest Atmospheres," Cold Spring Harbor Perspectives in Biology, 2(10): a004895 (October, 2010) ("Geochemical evidence in Earth's oldest igneous rocks indicates that the redox state of the Earth's mantle has not changed over the past 3.8 Gyr"); Dante Canil, "Vanadian in peridotites, mantle redox and tectonic environments: Archean to present," Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 195:75-90 (2002).

[11.] Dante Canil, "Vanadian in peridotites, mantle redox and tectonic environments: Archean to present," Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 195:75-90 (2002) (internal citations removed).

[12.] National Research Council Space Studies Board, The Search for Life's Origins (National Academy Press, 1990).

[13.] Deborah Kelley, "Is It Time To Throw Out 'Primordial Soup' Theory?," NPR (February 7, 2010).

[14.] Committee on the Limits of Organic Life in Planetary Systems, Committee on the Origins and Evolution of Life, National Research Council, The Limits of Organic Life in Planetary Systems, p. 60 (Washington D.C.: National Academy Press, 2007).

[15.] Richard Van Noorden, "RNA world easier to make," Nature news (May 13, 2009),http://www.nature.com/news/2009/090513/full/news.2009.471.html

Examining a living fossil

T'is the season to be depressed?/coping with the holiday blues.

Manifest destiny 21st Century?:Pros and cons.

On Darwinism's attempts to put words in our mouths.

Leading Evolutionary Scientists Admit We Have No Evolutionary Explanation of Human Language

Casey Luskin December 19, 2014 3:06 AM

 

 

 

Denyse O'Leary has written here about the difficulty that evolutionary psychology faces in explaining the origin of language. Indeed, back in May, a group of huge names in evolutionary biology, evolutionary anthropology, and evolutionary psychology published a peer-reviewed paper in the journal Frontiers in Psychology admitting that in fact we have no explanation for the origin of language. The abstract strikingly states:

Understanding the evolution of language requires evidence regarding origins and processes that led to change. In the last 40 years, there has been an explosion of research on this problem as well as a sense that considerable progress has been made. We argue instead that the richness of ideas is accompanied by a poverty of evidence, with essentially no explanation of how and why our linguistic computations and representations evolved. We show that, to date, (1) studies of nonhuman animals provide virtually no relevant parallels to human linguistic communication, and none to the underlying biological capacity; (2) the fossil and archaeological evidence does not inform our understanding of the computations and representations of our earliest ancestors, leaving details of origins and selective pressure unresolved; (3) our understanding of the genetics of language is so impoverished that there is little hope of connecting genes to linguistic processes anytime soon; (4) all modeling attempts have made unfounded assumptions, and have provided no empirical tests, thus leaving any insights into language's origins unverifiable. Based on the current state of evidence, we submit that the most fundamental questions about the origins and evolution of our linguistic capacity remain as mysterious as ever, with considerable uncertainty about the discovery of either relevant or conclusive evidence that can adjudicate among the many open hypotheses.
(Marc Hauser, Charles Yang, Robert Berwick, Ian Tattersall, Michael J. Ryan, Jeffrey Watumull, Noam Chomsky and Richard C. Lewontin, "The mystery of language evolution," Frontiers in Psychology, Vol 5:401 (May 7, 2014) (emphases added).)

It's difficult to imagine much stronger words from a more prestigious collection of experts. But what about all of those news stories about apes who learn how to communicate using sign language? Do they show that apes possess or can learn some primitive precursor to humanlike language? No, they say:

Talking birds and signing apes rank among the most fantastic claims in the literature on language evolution, but examination of the evidence shows fundamental differences between child language acquisition and nonhuman species' use of language and language-like systems. For instance, dogs can respond to a few hundred words, but only after thousands of hours of training; children acquire words rapidly and spontaneously generalize their usage in a wide range of contexts. Similarly, Nim Chimpsky, the chimpanzee that produced the only public corpus of data in all animal language studies, produced signs considerably below the expected degree of combinatorial diversity seen in two-year old children, and with no understanding of syntactic structure or semantic interpretation. Though these studies are of potential interest to understanding the acquisition of specialized, artificial skills -- akin to our learning a computer language -- they do not inform understanding of language evolution.

They conclude: "For now, the evidence from comparative animal behavior provides little insight into how our language phenotype evolved. The gap between us and them is simply too great to provide any understanding of evolutionary precursors or the evolutionary processes (e.g., selection) that led to change over time."

 

But what about FOXP2 -- a gene that seems to be connected to language, where humans have a couple of unique amino acid differences compared to nonhuman primates? In The Language of God, Francis Collins presented FOXP2 as something of a miracle mutation that could have caused human language to develop (see pp. 139-141). Time Magazine once claimed that our two amino acid differences in this gene could have caused "the emergence of all aspects of human speech, from a baby's first words to a Robin Williams monologue." These authors would disagree, because, as they point out, we aren't even sure exactly how FOXP2 affects language:

FOXP2 is a transcription factor that up- or down-regulates DNA in many different tissue types (brain, lung, gut lining) at different times during development as well as throughout life. This broad functional effect makes evolutionary analysis difficult. In particular, the exact mechanisms by which FOXP2 mutations disrupt speech remain uncertain, variously posited as disruptions in motor articulation/serialization in speech, vocal learning generally, or broader difficulties with procedural serialization. This is critical because FOXP2 mutations may disrupt only the input/output systems of language, sparing the more internal computations of human language syntax or semantics; or it may be that FOXP2 affects general cognitive processing, such as general serial ordering of procedures. Second, it is not clear whether the amino acid changes distinguishing FOXP2 in humans and nonhumans represent adaptations "for" language, since their functional effects remain unclear. One of the two protein-coding changes along the lineage to modern humans is also associated with the order Carnivora. Since FOXP2 also targets the gut lining, this evolutionary step may have had little to do directly with language but instead with digestion modifications driven by forest-to-savannah habit and so dietary change...

According to the paper, claims that mutations in FOXP2 explain the origin of language cannot be true because, as the authors put it, "we lack a connect-the-dots account of any gene to language phenotype."

 

Of course the authors propose various avenues of research that they think might someday lead to an understanding how language arose. But for the present, their analysis is discouraging: "Until such evidence is brought forward, understanding of language evolution will remain one of the great mysteries of our species."

But you already knew that.

Your Computer Doesn't Like You

Michael Egnor December 15, 2014 2:30 AM

 

Actually, your computer doesn't dislike you, either. Your computer has no opinion about you at all, because it has no opinions whatsoever.

This is news to Stephen Hawking and Elon Musk, who -- as Erik J. Larson has commented here -- recently have warned humanity that computers are on the verge of acquiring minds and could take over the world and end mankind.

Computers, of course, cannot "take over the world and end mankind," because computers have no intelligent agency at all. Intelligence, as denoted in "artificial intelligence," corresponds roughly to what Aristotle meant by intellect and will. Intellect and will are the rational capabilities of human beings -- the ability to reason, to contemplate universals such as good and evil and right and wrong, to love and hate, to judge and intend and carry out decisions arrived at through reason. These are capabilities of human beings, and only of human beings.

Inanimate devices have agency too, but they have unintelligent agency. Computers can store electrons, move electrons about, light up a screen, boot up, crash, freeze, and so on. Computers can of course be a tool by which human beings express their own human intelligent agency. When a person commits bank fraud via a computer, the person, not the computer, goes to jail. Computers have no intelligent agency of their own, and never will, any more than the paperweight on your desk has intelligent agency.

The only way a computer can hurt you, on its own, is if it falls on your foot.

Computers are electromechanical devices that we use as tools. They differ only in complexity from other tools like books, which we use to store and retrieve representations of knowledge. We make tools, and we use tools, and they serve our ends. We put representations of our intentions and knowledge and desires and memories and conceptual insights and errors into computers, and the software that we have written maps our inputs to outputs, and then we analyze and ponder the outputs. Nowhere in this process is there the slightest bit of thinking on the part of the computer. Computers can't think because things like tools -- even tools made in Silicon Valley -- can't think. Computers are devices we use for our own purposes, and like all devices, sometimes the consequences aren't what we expected. Sometimes the book really changes the way we think about things, and sometimes we drop the book on our foot. But the consequences of using tools -- and the consequences can on occasion be transformative for humanity -- are consequences entirely of human purposes and mistakes.  

We've been through this before. After the invention of writing in Sumer, parchment didn't acquire a mind and inflict evil on humanity. But writing did change civilization. After the invention of the printing press, books didn't acquire a mind and inflict evil upon humanity. But the printing press did change civilization. Nor will computers in the 21st century acquire a mind and inflict evil on humanity, because computers can't think any more than parchment or books can think.

But the information age will change civilization.

The salient harm that the silly "artificial intelligence" trope will do to humanity, aside from the general stupidity the concept fosters, is that it will distract us from the astonishingly potent transformation of our civilization that we will bring about in the information revolution. The transformation will be much more radical and rapid than the transformation in the 15th century caused by the printing press. Within a century or two after Gutenberg, millions of people had read things they had never read before, and thought of things they had never thought of before, and doubted and believed new things and found new ways to change their lives and their cultures. The Renaissance flowered, the Reformation raged, the Enlightenment (however misnamed) bloomed, and modernity dawned.

By 1648 northern and central Europe was bled white and a third of the population of Germany was dead from famine and war. By 1789 Napoleon was studying his schoolbooks.  By 1867 Marx had a publisher for Das Kapital, and by 1925 Hitler published volume one of Mein Kampf.

Parchment and books and computers are the tools -- merely the tools -- by which humanity transforms itself.

The information revolution will leverage human intentions and mistakes in ways we can only begin to imagine. None of the transformation will have anything to do with science fiction stories about malevolent robots. It's the malevolent humans -- and even the well-intentioned humans -- who will fashion our ends

Artificial intelligence is an oxymoron. Only human beings have intelligence. We use tools to bring about our ends, and the human information revolution made possible by our tools will transform our civilization, for better or worse and probably both. But the only real threat "artificial intelligence" poses is that it disposes us to dread HAL when we should be contemplating the transformation -- a transformation far more fundamental and astonishing than writing or the printing press -- that humanity will bring upon itself via the information revolution.

René Girard has a few thoughts about what we do to ourselves.

 

The divine law and bloodVIII:swimming against the flow.

From the spring 2013 edition of "stanford Medicine"

 

AGAINST THE FLOW
WHAT’S BEHIND THE DECLINE IN BLOOD TRANSFUSIONS?

by Sarah C.P. Williams
Illustration by Jonathon Rosen

One day in 2011, an ambulance pulled up to the Stanford emergency room and paramedics unloaded a man in his 30s who had crashed his motorcycle. He was in critical condition: Tests showed dangerously low blood pressure, indicating that around 40 percent of his blood was lost. And an ultrasound revealed that the blood was collecting in his belly, suggesting that one or more of his abdominal organs was the source of the blood loss.

Paul Maggio, MD, a trauma surgeon and co-director of critical care medicine at Stanford Hospital & Clinics, sped the patient into the operating room. But he made sure that the technicians prepping his operating room took the time to set up one key piece of equipment, called an intraoperative cell salvage device, which is now commonly used in trauma cases. As the patient lay on the operating table and Maggio made the first cuts into his abdomen, suction devices slurped up the loose blood, directing it away from the surgery site through tubes. But instead of leading to a container bound for disposal, the tubes led to the salvage device.

The ATM-sized machine spun the blood to separate its components, cleaned it of any debris that had been suctioned up from the abdomen and sent it back out into fresh bags. From there, the blood was shunted right back to the patient’s body, through intravenous tubes poking into his veins. The cell salvage device has been around for decades, but only recently has evidence emerged that autotransfusion — giving patients their own blood instead of blood from donors — leads to better surgery outcomes. As a result, the use of the machines has gone from extremely rare to commonplace. Today, hospitals that have the machines use them in many scheduled abdominal and heart surgeries and routinely in trauma cases involving massive bleeding.

“Autotransfusing this patient spared him from getting more banked donor blood and from all the risks associated with it,” says Maggio of the motorcycle crash victim. He turned out to have an injury to his spleen, which Maggio repaired. In all, around 2 liters of blood were collected from the patient’s abdomen, processed through the salvage device, and transfused back into his body.

Blood transfusions involve routing a needle into one of a patient’s veins — most often in an arm — and attaching a thin tube to the needle. Blood flows through the tube directly into the patient’s blood vessels. Ten years ago, a patient like Maggio’s would most likely have had a transfusion of blood donated by volunteers at the Stanford Blood Center. But over the past decade, a growing body of research has revealed that in hospitals around the world, donated blood is used more often, and in larger quantities, than is needed to help patients — both in operating rooms and hospital wards.

Some of the research has been conducted by physicians working with patients who refuse donated blood on religious grounds; other findings have come from the front lines of the war in Afghanistan, where blood is hard to transport; and some studies have been inspired simply by the rising cost of blood and a desire to save resources. Some findings are new, and others, like studies by Stanford’s Tim Goodnough, MD, a hematologist and the director of transfusion services, are years old but only recently being noticed. The takeaway message from all is the same: While blood is precious and continues to save lives, its use can be minimized and fine-tuned to optimize patients’ health and reduce costs.

The American Medical Association brought attention to the subject last fall at its national summit on the overuse of five medical treatments. Blood transfusions were on the list (along with heart stents, ear tubes, antibiotics and inducing birth in pregnant women).

“From the clinical standpoint, I’m not really thinking about resources or cost,” says Maggio, who’s also an assistant professor of surgery. “I’m thinking about giving the patient the best care.” Donated blood carries risks, albeit very slight, of infection and setting off an immune reaction. But research is also showing that even when these drastic outcomes are avoided, there’s something else about donated blood — which scientists don’t fully understand — that could slow recovery time or increase complications.

While autotransfusion for trauma patients is growing, and guidelines for blood transfusions are changing in response to this new research, altering the protocols that doctors have been using for so many years is a slow process.

 

Changing the routine

At Stanford, it took an innovative new program that used alerts on doctors’ computer systems to enforce fewer blood transfusions

But the push paid off: Blood use in the operating rooms, emergency rooms and hospital wards of both Stanford and the Lucile Packard Children’s Hospital has declined by 10 percent in just a few years. At Packard Children’s alone, 460 transfusions and $165,000 were saved in one year, according to a pilot study conducted Feb. 1, 2009, through Jan. 31, 2010.

‘There’s this idea ingrained in the culture of medicine that people will die if they don’t have a certain level of blood, that blood is the ultimate lifesaver.’
– Patricia Ford, MD, Founder and Director of Pennsylvannia Hospital’s Center for Bloodless Medicine and Surgery at Penn Medicine

“I think we’re probably still giving too much blood in some of these situations,” says Maggio. “But we hope that physicians are becoming better informed about when to give blood.”
People most often need blood transfusions when they’re in one of three situations: They lose blood from a major surgery that’s been scheduled for weeks or months; they lose blood in a way that their body won’t be able to replace, such as a blood cancer that shuts down the body’s ability to make blood cells; or they lose blood during a more sudden trauma — either an external wound or internal bleeding.
“For that first group of patients, scheduled for elective surgery, if you can plan ahead, you should be able to avoid using blood,” says Goodnough, a professor of pathology and of medicine. In those patients, drugs can boost a patient’s own blood production ahead of surgery, blood can be collected from a patient ahead of time to re-infuse later, precautions can be taken to prevent sudden blood loss, or autotransfusion machines like the cell salvage device can be set up. “Where we still need a national blood inventory is for patients who can’t plan ahead,” says Goodnough.
In the cases where physicians continue to give blood when it might not be needed, it’s often because they can’t imagine not doing everything they can to help a patient — and blood has always been viewed as having far more benefits than risks in almost any population of patients. But now, that risk-benefit analysis is changing.
“There’s this idea ingrained in the culture of medicine that people will die if they don’t have a certain level of blood, that blood is the ultimate lifesaver,” says Patricia Ford, MD, founder and director of Pennsylvania Hospital’s Center for Bloodless Medicine and Surgery at Penn Medicine. “And that’s true in some specific situations, but for most patients in most situations it’s just not true.” Ford’s center is one of the oldest and largest in the country that specializes in treating patients without donated blood; dozens of others have been created over the past decades but mostly at a smaller scale.

Going bloodless

 

Every year, Ford treats or operates on around 700 Jehovah’s Witnesses, whose religion prohibits transfusions of blood that is not one’s own. Since 1996, she has been fine-tuning ways to give these patients the best care as well as ways to apply these techniques to the broader population.

“Many physicians I talked to at the beginning had this misperception that a lot of patients just can’t survive without receiving blood,” says Ford. “I may have even thought that myself to some degree. But what I rapidly learned was you can care for these patients by just applying some easy strategies.”

In fact, a study published in August 2012 by researchers at the Cleveland Clinic concluded that Jehovah’s Witness patients recovered better from heart surgery than patients who received blood transfusions. It’s the longest study conducted on such patients — the researchers followed them for up to 20 years. The Jehovah’s Witness patients had higher five-year survival rates, fewer heart attacks following the surgery and fewer complications including sepsis and renal failure. The better outcomes might not have been due to the absence of transfusions but to differences in care received — the patients were more likely to be treated for low blood levels before surgery by receiving iron supplements and vitamins, and every patient’s surgery included use of an intraoperative cell salvage device. The findings suggest that these methods employed for bloodless surgeries could help patients beyond the Jehovah’s Witness community.

At Pennsylvania Hospital, Ford has discovered that, for scheduled surgeries, one of the best ways to avoid the need for blood transfusions is to test patients’ levels of hemoglobin — the protein in red blood cells that carries oxygen — well before their surgery. If the levels are low, then the patient can take vitamin K and iron supplements, which help the body produce more blood cells and help red blood cells more efficiently carry oxygen throughout the body. The practice of testing for low red blood cell levels, or anemia, is now beginning to spread from specialized clinics like Ford’s to other hospitals around the country.

“Testing for anemia was just not on people’s radar screens, because they knew that they could always give the patient blood,” says Ford. Now, many doctors consider testing a patient’s blood cell levels just as important as testing their heart and lung health before surgery. This shift is supported by studies such as an October 2012 analysis in the Annals of Thoracic Surgery of the outcomes of more than 17,000 heart surgeries, which found an increase in stroke, death during surgery and death after surgery when patients were anemic before surgery.

At Stanford, standard pre-surgery tests include blood counts for patients who are expected to lose large amounts of blood, says Goodnough. If anemia is suggested by the results, clinicians aim to manage the condition before surgery.

At Penn, Ford also emphasizes the conservation of blood during surgery, often by using an intraoperative cell salvage device. Patients can also donate blood in the weeks leading up to a scheduled surgery and their own saved blood — called an autologous donation — can be used for a transfusion if necessary. In the 1980s, Goodnough studied the usefulness of autologous donations in different patient population groups and pushed for its broader usage. It’s now considered a mainstream way of reducing the need for donated blood. “It sounds like a mundane concept now, but it was quite progressive when we first started looking at it,” says Goodnough.

Among Ford’s lessons with the Jehovah’s Witnesses, she says that perhaps her most important has been that there’s no magic hemoglobin number that tells doctors when a patient will start exhibiting signs of anemia. Typically, doctors consider hemoglobin above 12 to be normal, and hemoglobin below 7 or 8 to indicate the need for a blood transfusion. But Ford and a growing number of other doctors think those numbers could be pushed down further, a change that would require new studies for many to adapt.

“It’s not unusual for me to see a patient who has a hemoglobin of 5 and they look as healthy as anyone walking down the street,” says Ford. Of course, there also can be patients who become sick with much higher hemoglobin levels, but Ford would like to see more doctors treating blood levels based on symptoms, not a number. Goodnough agrees: “It’s really hard to demonstrate at what level of hemoglobin a transfusion will help a patient,” he says. “And we’re increasingly seeing that for most patients, hemoglobin has to be exceptionally low to have effects.” But it depends more on the patient’s health and risk factors, he says. There’s no one-size-fits-all solution.

Ezekiel28 The septuagint

1 And the word of the Lord came to me, saying, 2 And thou, son of man, say to the prince of Tyrus, Thus saith the Lord; Because thine heart has been exalted, and thou hast said, I am God, I have inhabited the dwelling of God in the heart of the sea; yet thou art man and not God, though thou hast set thine heart as the heart of God: 3 art thou wiser than Daniel? or have not the wise instructed thee with their knowledge? 4 Hast thou gained power for thyself by thine [own] knowledge or thine [own] prudence, and [gotten] gold and silver in thy treasures? 5 By thy abundant knowledge and thy traffic thou hast multiplied thy power; thy hart has been lifted up by thy power. 6 Therefore thus saith the Lord; Since thou hast set thine heart as the hart of God; 7 because of this, behold, I [will] bring on thee strange plagues from the nations; and they shall draw their swords against thee, and against the beauty of thy knowledge, 8 and they shall bring down thy beauty to destruction. And they shall bring thee down; and thou shalt die the death of the slain in the heart of the sea. 9 Wilt thou indeed say, I am God, before them that slay thee? whereas thou art man, and not God. 10 Thou shalt perish by the hands of strangers among the multitude of the uncircumcised: for I have spoken it, saith he Lord. 11 And the word of the Lord came to me, saying, 12 Son of man, take up a lamentation for the prince of Tyre, and say to him, Thus saith the Lord God; Thou art a seal of resemblance, and crown of beauty. 13 Thou wast in the delight of the paradise of God; thou hast bound upon thee every precious stone, the sardius, and topaz, and emerald, and carbuncle, and sapphire, and jasper, and silver, and gold, and ligure, and agate, and amethyst, and chrysolite, and beryl, and onyx: and thou hast filled thy treasures and thy stores in thee with gold. 14 From the day that thou wast created thou [wast] with the cherub: I set thee on the holy mount of God; thou wast in the midst of the stones of fire. 15 Thou wast faultless in thy days, from the day that thou wast created, until iniquity was found in thee. 16 Of the abundance of thy merchandise thou hast filled thy storehouses with iniquity, and hast sinned: therefore thou hast been cast down wounded from the mount of God, and the cherub has brought thee out of the midst of the stones of fire. 17 Thy heart has been lifted up because of thy beauty; thy knowledge has been corrupted with thy beauty: because of the multitude of thy sins I have cast thee to the ground, I have caused thee to be put to open shame before kings. 18 Because of the multitude of thy sins and the iniquities of thy merchandise, I have profaned thy sacred things; and I will bring fire out of the midst of thee, this shall devour thee; and I will make thee [to be] ashes upon thy land before all that see thee. 19 And all that know thee among the nations shall groan over thee: thou art gone to destruction, and thou shalt not exist any more. 20 And the word of the Lord came to me, saying, 21 Son of man, set thy face against Sidon, and prophesy against it, 22 and say, Thus saith the Lord; Behold, I am against thee, O Sidon; and I will be glorified in thee; and thou shalt know that I am the Lord, when I have wrought judgments in thee, and I will be sanctified in thee. 23 Blood and death [shall be] in thy streets; and [men] wounded with swords shall fall in thee and on every side of thee; and they shall know that I am the Lord. 24 And there shall no more be in the house of Israel a thorn of bitterness and a pricking briar proceeding from them that are round about them, who dishonoured them; and they shall know that I am the Lord. 25 Thus saith the Lord God; I will also gather Israel from the nations, among whom they have been scattered, and I will be sanctified among them, and before the peoples and nations: and they shall dwell upon their land, which I gave to my servant Jacob. 26 Yea, they shall dwell upon it safely, and they shall build houses, and plant vineyards, and dwell securely, when I shall execute judgment on all that have dishonoured them, [even] on those [that are] round about them; and they shall know that I am the Lord their God, and the God of their fathers.

ΚΑΙ ἐγένετο λόγος Κυρίου πρός με λέγων· 2 καὶ σὺ υἱὲ ἀνθρώπου, εἰπὸν τῷ ἄρχοντι Τύρου· τάδε λέγει Κύριος· ἀνθ' ὧν ὑψώθη σου ἡ καρδία, καὶ εἶπας· θεός εἰμι ἐγώ, κατοικίαν θεοῦ κατῴκησα ἐν καρδίᾳ θαλάσσης, σὺ δὲ εἶ ἄνθρωπος καὶ οὐ Θεός, καὶ ἔδωκας τὴν καρδίαν σου ὡς καρδίαν Θεοῦ. 3 μὴ σοφώτερος εἶ σὺ τοῦ Δανιήλ; ἢ σοφοὶ οὐκ ἐπαίδευσάν σε τῇ ἐπιστήμη αὐτῶν; 4 μὴ ἐν τῇ ἐπιστήμῃ σου ἢ τῇ φρονήσει σου ἐποίησας σεαυτῷ δύναμιν καὶ χρυσίον καὶ ἀργύριον ἐν τοῖς θησαυροῖς σου; 5 ἐν τῇ πολλῇ ἐπιστήμῃ σου καὶ ἐμπορίᾳ σου ἐπλήθυνας δύναμίν σου, ὑψώθη ἡ καρδία σου ἐν τῇ δυνάμει σου. 6 διὰ τοῦτο τάδε λέγει Κύριος· ἐπειδὴ δέδωκας τὴν καρδίαν σου ὡς καρδίαν Θεοῦ, 7 ἀντὶ τούτου ἰδοὺ ἐγὼ ἐπάγω ἐπὶ σὲ ἀλλοτρίους λοιμοὺς ἀπὸ ἐθνῶν, καὶ ἐκκενώσουσι τὰς μαχαίρας αὐτῶν ἐπὶ σὲ καὶ ἐπὶ τὸ κάλλος τῆς ἐπιστήμης σου καὶ στρώσουσι τὸ κάλλος σου εἰς ἀπώλειαν· 8 καὶ καταβιβάσουσί σε, καὶ ἀποθανῇ θανάτῳ τραυματιῶν ἐν καρδίᾳ θαλάσσης. 9 μὴ λέγων ἐρεῖς· Θεός εἰμι ἐγώ, ἐνώπιον τῶν ἀναιρούντων σε; σὺ δὲ εἶ ἄνθρωπος καὶ οὐ Θεός. 10 ἐν πλήθει ἀπεριτμήτων ἀπολῇ ἐν χερσὶν ἀλλοτρίων, ὅτι ἐγὼ ἐλάλησα, λέγει Κύριος. - 11 Καὶ ἐγένετο λόγος Κυρίου πρός με λέγων· 12 υἱὲ ἀνθρώπου, λαβὲ θρῆνον ἐπὶ τὸν ἄρχοντα Τύρου καὶ εἰπὸν αὐτῷ· τάδε λέγει Κύριος Κύριος· σὺ ἀποσφράγισμα ὁμοιώσεως καὶ στέφανος κάλλους 13 ἐν τῇ τρυφῇ τοῦ παραδείσου τοῦ Θεοῦ ἐγενήθης· πάντα λίθον χρηστὸν ἐνδέδεσαι, σάρδιον καὶ τοπάζιον καὶ σμάραγδον καὶ ἄνθρακα καὶ σάπφειρον καὶ ἴασπιν καὶ ἀργύριον καὶ χρυσίον καὶ λιγύριον καί ἀχάτην καὶ ἀμέθυστον καὶ χρυσόλιθον καὶ βηρύλλιον καὶ ὀνύχιον, καὶ χρυσίου ἐνέπλησας τοὺς θησαυρούς σου καὶ τὰς ἀποθήκας σου ἐν σοὶ 14 ἀφ' ἧς ἡμέρας ἐκτίσθης σύ. μετὰ τοῦ Χεροὺβ ἔθηκά σε ἐν ὄρει ἁγίῳ Θεοῦ, ἐγενήθης ἐν μέσῳ λίθων πυρίνων. 15 ἐγενήθης σὺ ἄμωμος ἐν ταῖς ἡμέραις σου, ἀφ' ἧς ἡμέρας σὺ ἐκτίσθης ἕως εὑρέθη τὰ ἀδικήματα ἐν σοί. 16 ἀπὸ πλήθους τῆς ἐμπορίας σου ἔπλησας τὰ ταμιεῖά σου ἀνομίας καὶ ἥμαρτες καὶ ἐτραυματίσθης ἀπὸ ὄρους τοῦ Θεοῦ, καὶ ἤγαγέ σε τὸ Χεροὺβ ἐκ μέσου λίθων πυρίνων. 17 ὑψώθη ἡ καρδία σου ἐπὶ τῷ κάλλει σου, διεφθάρη ἡ ἐπιστήμη σου μετὰ τοῦ κάλλους σου· διὰ πλῆθος ἁμαρτιῶν σου ἐπὶ τὴν γῆν ἔρριψά σε, ἐναντίον βασιλέων ἔδωκά σε παραδειγματισθῆναι. 18 διὰ τὸ πλῆθος τῶν ἁμαρτιῶν σου καὶ τῶν ἀδικιῶν τῆς ἐμπορίας σου ἐβεβήλωσα τά ἱερά σου, καὶ ἐξάξω πῦρ ἐκ μέσου σου, τοῦτο καταφάγεταί σε· καὶ δώσω σε εἰς σποδὸν ἐπὶ τῆς γῆς σου ἐναντίον πάντων τῶν ὁρώντων σε. 19 καὶ πάντες οἱ ἐπιστάμενοί σε ἐν τοῖς ἔθνεσι στυγνάσουσιν ἐπὶ σέ· ἀπώλεια ἐγένου καὶ οὐχ ὑπάρξεις ἔτι εἰς τὸν αἰῶνα. 20 Καὶ ἐγένετο λόγος Κυρίου πρός με λέγων· 21 υἱὲ ἀνθρώπου, στήρισον τὸ πρόσωπόν σου ἐπὶ Σιδῶνα καὶ προφήτευσον ἐπ' αὐτὴν 22 καὶ εἰπόν· τάδε λέγει Κύριος· ἰδοὺ ἐγὼ ἐπὶ σέ, Σιδών, καὶ ἐνδοξασθήσομαι ἐν σοί, καὶ γνώσῃ ὅτι ἐγώ εἰμι Κύριος ἐν τῷ ποιῆσαί με ἐν σοὶ κρίματα, καὶ ἁγιασθήσομαι ἐν σοί. 23 αἷμα καὶ θάνατος ἐν ταῖς πλατείαις σου, καὶ πεσοῦνται τετραυματισμένοι ἐν μαχαίραις ἐν σοὶ περικύκλῳ σου· καὶ γνώσονται διότι ἐγώ εἰμι Κύριος. - 24 Καὶ οὐκ ἔσονται οὐκέτι ἐν τῷ οἴκῳ τοῦ ᾿Ισραὴλ σκόλοψ πικρίας καὶ ἄκανθα ὀδύνης ἀπὸ πάντων τῶν περικύκλῳ αὐτῶν τῶν ἀτιμασάντων αὐτούς· καὶ γνώσονται ὅτι ἐγώ εἰμι Κύριος. 25 τάδε λέγει Κύριος Κύριος· καὶ συνάξω τὸν ᾿Ισραὴλ ἐκ τῶν ἐθνῶν, οὗ διεσκορπίσθησαν ἐκεῖ, καὶ ἁγιασθήσομαι ἐν αὐτοῖς ἐνώπιον τῶν λαῶν καὶ τῶν ἐθνῶν· 26 καὶ κατοικήσουσιν ἐπὶ τῆς γῆς αὐτῶν, ἣν δέδωκα τῷ δούλῳ μου ᾿Ιακώβ, καὶ κατοικήσουσιν ἐπ' αὐτῆς ἐν ἐλπίδι καὶ οἰκοδομήσουσιν οἰκίας καὶ φυτεύσουσιν ἀμπελῶνας καὶ κατοικήσουσιν ἐν ἐλπίδι, ὅταν ποιήσω κρίμα ἐν πᾶσι τοῖς ἀτιμάσασιν αὐτοὺς ἐν τοῖς κύκλῳ αὐτῶν· καὶ γνώσονται ὅτι ἐγώ εἰμι Κύριος ὁ Θεὸς αὐτῶν καὶ ὁ Θεὸς τῶν πατέρων αὐτῶν.