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Saturday, 15 June 2024

On secular mythmaking.

 Darwin’s Science and Storytelling


Resisting the scientific tendency to advance inflated knowledge-claims, the late Harvard biologist Stephen Jay Gould (best known for proposing the theory of punctuated equilibrium in opposition to Darwinian gradualism) described scientific theories more modestly as “adaptive stories” told in the hope of being able to explain a variety of terrestrial phenomena. In this way a loose mass of data could be satisfyingly shaped into a coherent and intelligible narrative. In some cases, it could even be legitimate to classify such theories as just-so stories or myths, such being “the stories we tell ourselves to make sense of the disparate and fragmented state of knowledge.”1 Such considerations, which underscore the role played by narrative in problem-solving, may provide some assistance in assessing the life, work and influence of Charles Darwin.

Darwin Mythologized

We have at our disposal a large storehouse of unimpeachably verifiable knowledge about Darwin, yet into that already capacious storehouse have inevitably crept some elements of hero worship and what is popularly termed “mythologization.” Darwin’s South Seas odyssey provides one example of that tendency. His five-year voyage aboard the Beagle in the 1830s was undoubtedly an eye-opening rite of passage for him but perhaps not quite so foundational to his intellectual development as is sometimes proposed. However formative that half decade was as a personal landmark, it did not provide a definitive foundation for the later development of his views on evolution.

For understandable reasons to do with the aesthetics of constructing a compelling narrative, on the other hand, the Darwin legend has it that his South American experiences were responsible for the formulation of a whole host of evolutionary discoveries. According to the conventional, partly mythicized story the intrepid explorer returned from having garnered the secrets of nature in the exotic realms of the South Seas to share these secrets with his fellow men and women. Such a reading provides an undeniably good imaginative fit with the heroic pattern of a “mythic universal” figure like Prometheus who in Greek mythology brought down fire to earth from the abode of the Greek gods to share its boons with mortals. Resonating with people at a subconscious level, it is the kind of stirring story audiences like to hear, and reporters and other storytellers often have eager recourse to such archetypal narrative patterns. Little though many might know of Greek mythology, such ingrained narrative schemata nevertheless seem to be all but hard-wired into audience expectations of what a “proper” heroic tale should consist of.2

Narrative Tropes

Misia Landau once made the cautionary point that even discussion of the life and works of prominent scientists can suffer from some surprising interferences from folklore and myth.3 She recommended that scientists should be especially aware of age-old and familiar narrative structures since they could be used at some barely apprehended level to embellish and potentially skew the presentation of objective data. Rather like the way we are tempted to embellish stories in everyday life to amuse our interlocutors, she argued, the choice of narrative mode used to explain evidence can predispose the reporter towards readily intelligible patterns of understanding, to the detriment of the unique particularities of the person or phenomenon about whom evidence is being presented.

Hence in the case of the Darwin biography, the Great Journey of Discovery makes for a good story, but once denuded of some of its fictional and mythic accretions, legend and reality do not invariably mesh together. In their study and edition of Darwin’s account of his sea journeying and researches, Janet Browne and Michael Neve point out that Darwin’s ideas did not come to him from his experiences in the field in the South American rainforests.4 In fact, the true story of the formation of Darwinian evolutionary theories had little to do with romantic discoveries in exotic locations. Real life, as Humphrey Bogart once observed, makes for lousy plots, and in Darwin’s case his true-life experience of discovery had little enough to do with the finely honed romance narrative that gradually developed around him.

Remarkably, Darwin’s evolutionary ideas did not derive from any meticulously fact-checked empirical observations in the South Seas or indeed from any other region of the world. Rather did they grow in a series of ad hoc, random installments, the result of his ability to weave together ideas culled from others, not all of them naturalists. As is clear from his explicit hommage to Thomas Malthus as well as from his inadequately acknowledged debt to his grandfather, Erasmus, his “discoveries” were in truth a collage of different hints picked up from his reading or from personal contacts.

The Sage of Down House

Mighty Prophet! Seer blest!

On whom those truths do rest,

Which we are toiling all our lives to find

It was not just the South American voyage which lent itself to mythologization, for even Darwin’s life after his return from South America has found itself fitted into a questionable fictional niche. The poet William Wordsworth wrote the celebrated famous lines cited above in reference to his conviction that the early stage of our childhood grants us uniquely penetrating insights into the nature of reality which “fade into the light of day” as we mature. A comparably rose-tinted perception of Darwin as seer or guru evolved in the public mind after the first decade of criticism of his Origin of Specieshad subsided.6 For thereafter, to transpose the matter into the kind of journalistic terms rightly deprecated by Landau, the Darwinian narrative seemed to establish itself as nothing less than the story of how one man and his grandson found the solution to the world’s most impenetrable existential mysteries — and all within less than a century. In a loosely associative but emotionally compelling sense, Erasmus Darwin was to fulfil the narrative role of a John the Baptist figure. Erasmus after all had been the first7 to advance the hypothesis, albeit unproven, of how humankind had evolved naturally and sans cosmic middleman from the state of unicellular beginnings to that of supremely complex and self-aware beings.

Nevertheless, Erasmus could play only the part of minor figure or, in dramaturgical parlance, deuteragonist, in this intellectual drama since his ideas had at the end of the day issued only from a speculative hunch. The voyage of discovery must continue with the grandson at the helm as he cast about for some material mechanism (initially he did not know what mechanism) which could underpin the grandpaternal thought experiment with logical support. The answer he alighted on was of course natural selection, which would have doubtless struck many as the final narrative dénouement of a long story with its origins in the previous century. With a sense of relief, many must have thought, the final curtain could now be lowered on to the stage. Closure had been attained.

The Story Evolves

The story that Charles had continued through to its conclusion in 1859 had been vicariously experienced and in that sense co-rehearsed by a number of prior and present generations of Charles’s peers. Ever since Erasmus’s views became widely known about in the 1790s, many would have been moved to play the slowly developing story to themselves in their own minds, not least because what readers rightly understood to be a further instalment of the story was published by Scottish publisher Robert Chambers in 1844 under the title Vestiges of the Natural History of Creation.8 Chambers’s volume was to become a consciousness-raising exercise sans pareil as he laced together what Erasmus Darwin had written with more modern cosmological studies in his attempt to explain the world to Victorians in wholly material terms. As the late Tom Wolfe noted, the volume became such a hit/succès de scandale that it “lit up the sky,” transfixing a generation which included Tennyson, Gladstone, Disraeli, Abraham Lincoln, and John Stuart Mill. Queen Victoria and Albert even took it in turns to read out portions of the text to each other.9

As Stephen Prickett observed, “no intellectual revolution happens all at once.” The traditional belief in the uniqueness of humanity was already being treated with some skepticism by the middle of the 18th century. Darwin did no more than administer the coup de grâce.10 Hence many readers at the time would have been, in modern parlance, “invested in the outcome” that Charles provided for them in 1859. It had in fact been ardently anticipated by the Victorian public for whom the deep secrets of human existence had represented a seemingly ineradicable “mystery of mysteries.” Just as in the early 16th century the reformer Martin Luther had justly claimed that his deep preoccupation with the Bible was also the concern of all Germans (“My business is everybody’s business”), so the question of the origins of human and animal life was an unremitting matter of curiosity and concern to Victorians. 

Darwin’s bringing closure to that unsolved mystery was truly a consummation devoutly to be desired, and doubtless would have been experienced by some as a form of catharsis in terms of its perceived liberation from theocratic authority. J. W. Burrow succinctly explained this Darwinian revolution in Victorian views as the bringing to an end of countless centuries of more or less animistic attitudes to nature. He continues,

Darwin had asked in his 1842 sketch, comparing the state of biology with physics, “What would the Astronomer say to the doctrine that the planets moved [not] according to the laws of gravitation, but from the Creator having willed each separate planet to move in its particular orbit.”

After 1859 biologists no longer needed to say things of that kind and nor did anyone else.11

Enlightenment Dreaming

Many then will have looked upon the publication of the Origin of Species as the culmination of a daring intellectual adventure whose motto could very credibly have been the Enlightenment rallying cry of sapere aude — “dare to know” (as opposed to merely believe). The erstwhile mystery of evolution could now be safely attributed to intelligible processes of cosmic automatism — although the story ends on a somewhat bathetic note since the precise modalities of this claimed process, being quite literally lost in the mists of time, were not then and never could be amenable to fact-checking.

Notwithstanding that inconvenient truth, however, the works of both Darwins essentially provided an alternative explanatory narrative which challenged what many were beginning to think of as the “outworn creed” of Genesis. Nobody perceived the deeper implications of the Darwinian credo better than one academic who was privy to an advance publication of the views of Darwin and Wallace in 1858 at a meeting of the Linnaean Society in London (where both men’s views were given equal time).12 Reportedly, most learned attendees that day remained strangely underwhelmed by the intellectually incendiary tidings they were hearing, so that it was left to Professor Samuel Haughton of the University of Dublin to connect the dots. Haughton’s view of what was referred to at the time as the development hypothesis was anything but positive and entirely resisted the intellectual hoopla of those willing Darwin on and accepting his views uncritically. He concluded his review in the following terms: 

There is no folly that human fancy can devise, when truth has ceased to be of primary importance, and right reason and sound logic have been discarded, that has not been produced, and preached as a new revelation.13

Science and Fiction

It is noteworthy that Haughton used the terms “preached” and “revelation.” For these terms were particularly prescient in that he could foresee that both Darwin and Wallace were implicitly announcing an ersatz, quasi-Comtean gospel of creation built on a purely secular foundation. As Haughton in his reference to discarding “right reason” also realized, a work ostensibly inspired by the Enlightenment watchword of reason had committed the greatest logical solecism it is possible to commit, which is the proposition that everything can come from nothing. For Haughton this was not revelation but arrant credulity at best and, at worst, hocus pocus. He did not call out the views of Wallace and Darwin for their opposition to religion but to reason. He was invoking the same terms as Wallace and Darwin but turning the terms against them by arraigning them for a lack of common-or-garden logic. His attack was mounted on purely rational grounds, and could just as credibly come from the pen of any rationalist philosopher, then as now.

For the fact of the matter was that in the midst of all his enthralling storytelling, Darwin had made the wholly counterintuitive claim that things could be created without a creator (which explains his famous fantasy about a miraculous chemical reaction in a small warm pond producing inchoate life-forms theoretically capable of future development). For in that way he was setting himself up in opposition not so much to religion as to the two-millennia-old and never before disputed wisdom of ex nihilo nihil fit (nothing can come from nothing), replacing it with its obverse, namely, all things (can) come from nothing. This was a rather conspicuous flaw in his overall argument, and it is not surprising that the truth-value of that paradoxical assertion has remained a focus of debate up to the present day. Routinely defended with great vigor, it can nevertheless seem to disinterested onlookers with no particular stake in enforcing an atheistic worldview more like a materialist fantasy than a sober piece of biological science. In fact, the very stridency of many who now class themselves as evolutionary psychologists (aka sociobiologists) has been a matter of some remark. Dorothy Nelkins for instance noted,

So ardent are their efforts, it is almost as if they aspire to assure the Darwinian fitness of the theory — to assure its survival in the world of cosmic ideas.14

Such forcefulness would be understandable (albeit somewhat boorish) if Darwinian theory were anything like the “slam dunk” the evolutionary psychologists perceive it to be, but that is not the case. Those who had originally greeted the Origin in a mood of joyous epiphany had neglected to notice (or else had elected not to notice) the theory’s lack of logical foundation. Darwin himself fell afoul of a similar lack of what Haughton termed right reason when Sir Charles Lyell had to point out to him on grounds of elementary logic that there could be no such thing as “natural selection,” only natural preservation. Darwin had to climb down on his use of terminology but never seems to have fully comprehended that preservation is by simple definition not a dynamic force with the kind of necessary forward momentum (much less inbuilt telos) which could create new species. 

The famous microbes-to-man narrative, then, seems to rest on grounds as shaky as the fantasy of life’s supposed emergence from a small warm pond (or geothermal vent or whatever). Furthermore, since the much bruited “natural selection” looks to be a quite literally impossible phenomenon in the form envisaged by Darwin, what price evolution itself? For natural selection has since 1859 been seen as the single proof that evolution occurred at all. Can it be the case that both natural selection and evolution are simply stories we have been rather too complacently telling each other for almost two centuries? Can the miraculous-seeming design of Planet Earth really be the result of undirected natural formations? Is it even possible for design to be somehow mimicked sans designer? How does that claimed “mimicry”work precisely? Darwinian theory appears to pose more intractable questions than it provides easy answers.

Even Darwin’s proverbial bulldog, Thomas Huxley, in company with the first supposedly atheist Member of Parliament, Charles Bradlaugh, loudly disavowed the label atheist which in today’s world is bandied about with such uncritical bravura. Both men observed that it would be absurd to deny the existence of an entity of which they confessed to having no conception (Huxley would go on to give wide currency to the term agnostic). Darwin too, unlike his grandfather, who was a proselytizer for the atheist cause, even latterly called himself a Theist (Darwin’s capital T). As J. W. Burrow remarked in his Introduction to his edition of the first incarnation of the Origin, 

By the time that Darwin came to write Origin he had come to the conclusion, which he retained to the end of his life, that questions of ultimate cause and purposes were an insoluble mystery.15

That seems a soberer and more considered conclusion than that offered by many of his intellectual legatees who have chosen to stride out well beyond the cautious perimeter that Darwin himself marked out. In so doing, to give Darwin the last word, they have surely strayed ultra vires: beyond the powers of humans to go or know.

Notes

Stephen Prickett, Narrative, Religion and Science. Fundamentalism Versus Irony (Cambridge: CUP, 2002), p. 18.
See Maud Bodkin, Archetypal Patterns in Poetry [1927] (New York: Vintage, 1958).
Misia Landau, Narratives of Human Evolution (Yale: Yale UP, 1993). 
“The received image of Darwin voyaging alone through vast turbulent seas of thought as he paced the deck of the Beagle is a fantasy.” See Voyage of the Beagle: Charles Darwin’s Journal of Researches, edited by Janet Browne and Michael Neve (London; Penguin, 1989), p. 2.
William Wordsworth, “Ode on Intimations of Immortality,” in Selections from William Wordsworth, edited by Sir Ifor Evans (London: Methuen, 1983), p.107 (lines 114-16).
See my account of initial scientific opposition in Taking Leave of Darwin: A Longtime Agnostic Discovers the Case for Design (Seattle: Discovery Institute Press, 2021), pp. 61-7.
Although he will probably have known of classical predecessors such as the atomist philosophers, Epicurus and Lucretius, so-called because they taught that the world had come about by accident as the result of various different configurations of atoms. It should also be noted that some French natural scientists (philosophes) were advancing similar views at about the same time as Erasmus. 
Vestiges of the Natural History of Creation (London: Churchill, 1844).
I am indebted for this information to Tom Wolfe’s The Kingdom of Speech (London: Penguin, 2016), p. 8.
Stephen Prickett, Narrative, Religion and Science, p. 131.
J. W. Burrow, Charles Darwin: The Origin of Species (Harmondsworth: Penguin, 1968), Introduction, p. 48.
“On the tendency of species to form varieties; and on the perpetuation of varieties and species by natural means of selection,” by Darwin and Wallace, communicated by Sir Charles Lyell, Journal of the Proceedings of the Linnaean Society, no numeration, August 1858 (papers read out on July 1, 1858).
See http://darwinonline.org.uk/converted/pdf/1860_Review_Origin_Biogenesis_Haughton_A1128.pdf (pp. 1-9, citation 7).
Dorothy Nelkins, “Less selfish than sacred? Genes and the religious impulse in evolutionary psychology,” in Alas Poor Darwin: Arguments Against Evolutionary Psychology, edited by Hilary and Steven Rose (London: Vintage, 2001), pp. 13-27, citation 14.
J. W. Burrow, Charles Darwin: The Origin of Species, Introduction, p. 24.

Quantum computing is finally about to be scaled up?

 

Yet more on the unceasing terror of the fossil record to Darwinism

 Fossil Friday: Darwin’s Abominable Mystery Corroborated Once Again


This Fossil Friday features the earliest known flowering plant, Montsechia vidalii, from the Lower Cretaceous of Las Hoyas in Spain, which has been dated to an age of about 130 million years. In several previous articles (Bechly 2021 a-d, 2022a-d, 2023, 2024) I reported about the “abominable mystery” of the sudden appearance of flowering plants in the Early Cretaceous period, which bothered Charles Darwin himself as a big problem for his theory. Last year, I discussed (Bechly 2023) a new study, which confirmed this discontinuity in the history of plants as “surely the greatest conundrum in the whole of paleontology” according to the lead author of this study, distinguished paleontologist Philip Donoghue.

Now, another new seminal study by Zuntini et al. (2024), published on April 24 by 278 (!) co-authors in the prestigious journal Nature, provided further strong corroboration of the “abominable mystery”. Like several previous studies the scientists attempt to illuminate the origin of flowering plants with a combination of phylogenetic inferences and molecular clock data. The authors mention that previous studies were flawed by the fact that “the limited and biased sampling of both taxa and genomes undermines confidence in the tree and its implications”. Therefore they built “the tree of life for almost 8,000 (about 60%) angiosperm genera using a standardized set of 353 nuclear genes”, which represents a “15-fold increase in genus-level sampling relative to comparable nuclear studies”. They scaled this tree to time using 200 fossils as calibration points for the dating of the branching events. Their results showed “that early angiosperm evolution was characterized by high gene tree conflict and explosive diversification, giving rise to more than 80% of extant angiosperm orders.”

An Explicit Conclusion

“Our lineage-through-time (LTT) heatmap and diversification rate estimates through time both indicate an explosive early phase of diversification of extant lineages during the Late Jurassic and Early Cretaceous Periods. An early burst of angiosperm diversification, popularized as ‘Darwin’s abominable mystery’, is expected given the sudden emergence of diverse angiosperm fossils during the Early Cretaceous. Phylogenetic studies based on single or few genes have also implied that angiosperms diversified rapidly in the Early Cretaceous. Our dated tree corroborates the existence of a distinct early burst of diversification, associated with high levels of gene tree conflict, further increasing our confidence in this finding.

More than 80% of extant angiosperm orders originated during the early burst of diversification. Although not strictly comparable because of their subjective delimitation, orders represent the main components of angiosperm feature diversity, which have arisen rapidly after the crown node of angiosperms. In the young tree, the early burst occurs during the Cretaceous, consistent with the hypothesis that a Cretaceous terrestrial revolution was triggered by the establishment of main angiosperm lineages. More controversially, the old tree places the early burst in the Triassic Period, which is dramatically at variance with the palaeobotanical record, highlighting that current molecular dating methods are unable to resolve the age of angiosperms.” 

Since this notorious discontinuity in the fossil record did not get any smaller with 160 years of paleobotanical research since Darwin, but instead became more and more acute and empirically corroborated, we can be very sure that the gap is not a gap of knowledge but a real gap in nature. This contradicts Darwin’s explicit dictum that nature does not make jumps. Nature clearly did make jumps in the history of life (Bechly 2024) and this cannot be explained with an unguided gradual accumulation of small changes over long periods of time, but requires a rapid burst of biological novelty that is best explained by intelligent design.

References

Bechly G 2021a. Darwin’s “Abominable Mystery”: Still Alive and Kicking. Evolution News June 11, 2021. https://evolutionnews.org/2021/06/darwins-abominable-mystery-still-alive-and-kicking/
Bechly G 2021b. Darwin’s “Abominable Mystery” Is Not Alone: Gaps Everywhere! Evolution News June 12, 2021. https://evolutionnews.org/2021/06/darwins-abominable-mystery-is-not-alone-gaps-everywhere/
Bechly G 2021c. Darwin’s “Abominable Mystery”: Jurassic Flowering Plants After All? Evolution News June 14, 2021. https://evolutionnews.org/2021/06/darwins-abominable-mystery-jurassic-flowering-plants-after-all/
Bechly G 2021d. Darwin’s “Abominable Mystery”: Mesozoic Cupules Come to the Rescue? Evolution News June 15, 2021. https://evolutionnews.org/2021/06/darwins-abominable-mystery-mesozoic-cupules-come-to-the-rescue/
Bechly G 2022a. Fossil Friday: Flowering Plants — Darwin’s Abominable Mystery. Evolution News October 21, 2022. https://evolutionnews.org/2022/10/fossil-friday-flowering-plants-darwins-abominable-mystery/
Bechly G 2022b. Fossil Friday: Florigerminis, Another Failed Candidate for a Jurassic Flowering Plant. Evolution News November 18, 2022. https://evolutionnews.org/2022/11/fossil-friday-florigerminis-another-failed-candidate-for-a-jurassic-flowering-plant/
Bechly G 2022c. Fossil Friday: Is Triassic Angiosperm-Like Pollen a Solution to Darwin’s Abominable Mystery? Evolution News December 2, 2022. https://evolutionnews.org/2022/12/fossil-friday-is-triassic-angiosperm-like-pollen-a-solution-to-darwins-abominable-mystery/
Bechly G 2022d. Educating “Professor Dave” on the Fossil Record and Genetics. Evolution News December 8, 2022. https://evolutionnews.org/2022/12/educating-professor-dave-on-the-fossil-record-and-genetics/
Bechly G 2023. Fossil Friday: New Study Confirms Discontinuities in the History of Plants. Evolution News October 27, 2023. https://evolutionnews.org/2023/10/fossil-friday-new-study-confirms-discontinuities-in-the-history-of-plants/
Bechly G 2024. Fossil Friday: Discontinuities in the Fossil Record — A Problem for Neo-Darwinism. Evolution News May 10, 2024. https://evolutionnews.org/2024/05/fossil-friday-discontinuities-in-the-fossil-record-a-problem-for-neo-darwinism/
Zuntini AR, Carruthers T, Maurin O et al. 2024. Phylogenomics and the rise of the angiosperms. Nature 629, 843–850. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-024-07324-0

Thursday, 13 June 2024

Toward a Darwin devotion filter?

 Only Thick Darwinism Served Here


Author’s note: James Barham and I developed this questionnaire some years back for an educational website. To appease the search engines, the website eventually dropped it. Lightly dusted off, it is presented here. The questionnaire provides a useful mirror for understanding the influence of Darwinian ideas on our lives and culture. 


How devoted a disciple of Charles Darwin’s are you, really? Take the Darwin Devotion Detector (DDD) test and find out. Higher scores on this test indicate increasing devotion to Darwin and his ideas. 

The DDD consists of 40 pairs of statements. For each pair, select the statement with which you more nearly agree. This is a forced-choice test. For some statement pairs, you may not feel drawn to either choice, but do the best you can. 

The correct Darwinian answer is marked with a hash sign (#) — add one for each such answer. The test is short and will take only a few minutes to complete.

Only scores close to zero indicate someone outside Darwin’s thrall.

The Test

1.

Evolution in the sense that all present-day organisms arose from one or a few ancestors (common descent) is now a proven fact.#
Evolution in that sense is still an unproven hypothesis.
2.

The theory of natural selection (i.e., retention of chance variations) adequately explains common descent.#
Even assuming full-blown evolution to be a fact, the theory of natural selection does not adequately explain it.
3.

The theory of natural selection accounts for the phenomenon of adaptation — and thus the appearance of design — in organisms.#
For an organism to be selected it must already be well adapted; therefore, the theory of natural selection begs the question of the origin of adaptations (or design).
4.

The formula “survival of the fittest” amounts to “survival of the survivors,” suggesting that the theory of natural selection is empirically empty, or even a tautology.
“Survival of the fittest” is a useful short-hand formula for characterizing the theory of natural selection.#
5.

Although Charles Darwin is an important figure in the history of science, the conceptual importance of natural selection has been significantly exaggerated.
Natural selection is one of the greatest ideas ever, and conceiving of it put Darwin in the company of Newton and Einstein.#
6.

Because Darwin’s birthday falls on the same day as Abraham Lincoln’s (February 12, 1809), if Americans were to celebrate one or the other, we should celebrate Darwin Day.#
Lincoln’s impact on the U.S. and the world was far more positive than Darwin’s and we should continue to celebrate Lincoln’s Birthday as it is.
7.

Darwinism, suitably updated, is good 21st-century science.#
Darwinism is a relic of 19th-century science; Darwin’s work has now been largely superseded.
8.

Darwin shared many of the conventional opinions of his day, including the superiority of the white race.
Darwin embodies humanity at its best and deserves the status of a secular saint.#
9.

Darwin’s ideas and their unintended consequences have done great harm.
The world would be a better place if everyone had to learn about Darwin’s ideas.#
10.

Hostility toward evolution is a major factor in the decline of American educational standards in relation to international standards.#
Other factors (such as classroom disorder and the breakdown of the family) have contributed more to the decline of American educational standards than hostility toward evolution.
11.

Public school biology teachers in the U.S. should be free to teach what they can defend to be true based on evidence.
Public school biology teachers in the U.S. should be required to teach the received views of professional evolutionary biologists.#
12.

In Kitzmiller v. Dover, Judge John E. Jones III ruled that it is illegal to “disparage or denigrate” Darwinism in the public schools; Judge Jones decided this case correctly.#
By suppressing dissent and creating a state-imposed ideology in America, Judge Jones’s ruling parallels Lysenkoism in the Soviet Union.
13.

Darwin’s theory of evolution is as well supported scientifically as Einstein’s theory of general relativity.#
Putting Darwin’s theory of evolution in the same league as Einstein’s theory of general relativity is an affront to the exact sciences.
14.

The Darwin Awards, given to people who kill themselves due to their rash or foolish actions, reflect an unhealthy cynicism and low view of humanity.
The Darwin Awards rightly recognize individuals for contributing to human evolution by weeding themselves out of the gene pool through their stupidity.#
15.

The eugenics movement — which led to the mass sterilization of people deemed “defective” in the United States and to mass murder in Germany — was largely based on Darwin’s ideas.
To lay the eugenics movement at Darwin’s feet is grossly unfair.#
16.

Living things are collections of ordinary chemical elements organized in particular ways; there is nothing physically distinctive about life.#
The “living state of matter” is physically distinctive, implying the existence of special causal powers that inorganic systems do not possess.
17.

Living things are basically just vehicles for their genes.#
Genes play a necessary but not sufficient causal role in living things.
18.

Organisms, while highly complex, are fundamentally no different from humanly constructed machines.#
Organisms are essentially different from humanly constructed machines.
19.

The concept of “junk DNA” was a major scientific blunder directly attributable to Darwinian thinking.
Darwinian thinking advanced science by correctly characterizing non-coding DNA regions as “junk DNA.”#
20.

Darwin speculated that life began in a “warm little pond”; in this, as with so many of his ideas, he was remarkably prescient.#
Nobody today has any real insight into how life began.
21.

Human beings are fundamentally different from all other animals.
Human beings are basically no different from other animals.#
22.

The most important fact about human beings is our capacity for conscious reflection, reason, and language.
Human mental capacities are a minor and superficial adaptation of an unexceptional primate.#
23.

Human beings can freely choose what to do.
Free will is an illusion.#
24.

The capacity for mature love is one of the noblest aspects of human nature.
Humans experience “love” as the result of oxytocin and other hormones coursing through the body — just as for other mammals.#
25.

Referring to “kin selection,” J. B. S. Haldane remarked: “I would gladly lay down my life for two brothers or eight cousins”; this principle helps us to understand the nature of human altruism.#
Mother Teresa (who ministered to dying homeless people in Kolkata) and holocaust rescuers (who risked their lives to help Jews escape Nazi death camps) have more to teach us about human altruism than kin selection.
26.

Some things (like killing innocents) are absolutely wrong.
Nothing is right or wrong except in relation to its consequences, especially for one’s genes.#
27.

Rape is morally wrong because it treats an autonomous human person as an object.
Rape is properly viewed as an adaptation in early hominid males to help them spread their genes.#
28.

If scientists could crossbreed a human and chimpanzee to form a hybrid “humanzee,” it would be a triumph and cause for celebration.#
Hybridizing a human being with a chimpanzee or any other animal is likely to be biologically impossible and, in any case, would be a moral outrage.
29.

Goodness, truth, and beauty are illusions that helped our hominid ancestors to survive.#
Goodness, truth, and beauty are objectively real norms that guide human belief and action.
30.

The motivations of Elizabeth Bennett and Mr. Darcy in Pride and Prejudice cannot be understood at the deepest level without a knowledge of evolutionary theory.#
Jane Austen had no need of evolutionary theory to understand human motivations at the deepest level relevant to literature.
31.

Memes are the units of selection of human culture, much as genes are the units of selection of organismic traits.#
Meme theory is a crude caricature of the way human beings come up with new ideas and share them with one another.
32.

Richard Dawkins is a distinguished scientist who deserves a Nobel Prize.#
Richard Dawkins is a brilliant popularizer who has not done any original scientific work in decades.
33.

Darwin made it possible to be an intellectually fulfilled atheist.#
The atheist worldview still contains major conceptual gaps.
34.

Religion is a legitimate activity in which humans try to understand and make contact with what is ultimately real.
Religion is an irrational response to unknown causes operating in nature; as we understand nature better, religion will disappear.#
35.

Due to our uncontrolled population growth, human beings have become a scourge upon the earth not unlike cancer.#
Human beings are the crown of creation.
36.

Third-world economic development to relieve poverty is more important than preserving biological diversity at all costs.
Preserving biological diversity is more important than third-world economic development.#
37.

Purpose, value, and meaning are “folk-psychology” categories that do not correspond to anything in reality.#
Purpose, value, and meaning are objectively real.
38.

Darwinian evolutionary theory has weaknesses and those who point them out should be tolerated, if not applauded.
Darwinian evolutionary theory has no weaknesses and those who say it does are usually religiously motivated.#
39.

Intelligent design, as a voice of dissent, does useful work in keeping the evolutionary biology community honest.
Intelligent design has no intellectual merits and deserves no public hearing.#
40.

The theory of natural selection is a “universal acid” that dissolves every problem in the biological and social sciences; Darwinian theory explains virtually everything.#
A theory that explains everything explains nothing; for all practical purposes, Darwinian theory is unfalsifiable and so is essentially unscientific.

Yet more re: the pros and cons of the Junk DNA trope.

 

Against nincsnevem ad pluribus VIII

 Nincs:The consistent testimony of Scripture affirms Christ’s divinity and role as the Creator. This comprehensive involvement in creation underscores His divine nature. If Jesus were a created being, He could not be the agent through whom all creation came into existence. John 1:3 explicitly states that "all things were made through him, and without him was not any thing made that was made." This explicitly states that Christ is not part of creation but its Creator, which excludes the possibility of Christ being a created being.

Me: The fact that the creation is "en" "Dia" Christ is evidence that he is NOT the source of the information and energy in the creation. The fact that all things were created "en""dia" him is no more evidence that he is not created than the fact that all are to be resurrected "en""dia"  him is evidence that he was not resurrected.

1Corinthians Ch.15:22NKJV"For as in Adam ALL die, even so in Christ ALL shall be made alive."

The Bible routinely uses the word all with sensible exceptions.


Sunday, 9 June 2024

Cricket returns to America?

 

On the willful credulity of Darwinists.

 Deconstructing Belief in Evolution


In a recent Evolution News article on the sophisticated engineering marvel of insect wings, David Coppedge finds another source of wonder — the willingness of the Caltech researchers to extol these wonders. Coppedge concludes with a droll acknowledgement of evolutionary origin: 

They will wax eloquent over the sophistication of some biological wonder, only to spoil the awe with a claim that it evolved by blind, material processes.

What causes otherwise intelligent and perceptive researchers to relegate stunning examples of biological design to the vaporous agency of evolution? Of course, we know about the conformity pressure of the scientific academy, with the threat of exclusion for crediting design to a designer. But there’s more to it than that. Even in private conversation, many researchers hold to the reality of naturalistic evolution as the efficient cause to form all the complex, functional elements of living organisms, from the macroscopic level down to individual biochemical reactions within the cell.

A Blithe Assumption

Although much has been written about the information barrier that natural processes face in attempting to ratchet up the functional complexity of living systems, it seems that many scientists blithely assume nature’s prowess extends to the generation of countless living wonders. Why is this? In our common human experience in the world, do we see examples of natural forces molding matter into complex, functional arrangements? 

In our investigation of how the natural world informs our thinking, the origin and development of living organisms constitutes the case in point. So, we shouldn’t exhibit examples from the realm of biology to support the contention that natural forces can increase the information content of a system by increasing functional complexity. Poignantly, however, this is just what the theory of evolution does. Its claims ignore the restrictions of the laws of physics. Evolution’s tenet of the survival of the fittest appeals immediately to our ego, gratuitously affirming that humans have attained consciousness, self-awareness, intelligence, morality, and ultimately, a technologically advanced civilization because we are the fittest and have survived.

In a more objective sense, we find agreement with evolution’s predictions that the record of living forms on Earth shows a general trend from simpler forms to more complex forms of life. But a theory’s validity is not measured simply by predictive success; its underlying assumptions must also conform to scientific reality. Moreover, it could be argued that life’s history is the opposite of the expected outcome of survival of the fittest, where fittest is usually taken to mean greater success at producing offspring. Without a doubt, the simplest life forms have always out-produced more advanced life forms in the arena of reproduction.

Considering Hurricanes

But let’s get back to examining nature for any non-living examples of complex, functional outcomes arising from combinations of the forces of nature acting on non-organic matter. Several years ago, a young biochemist suggested to me that hurricanes, with their rotational structure and wind-speed gradients, constitute an observable example of a natural artifact exhibiting complexity. However, this example falls short of the information content of even a single cell. 

While a “hurricane” has a macroscopic structure, its microscopic components (molecules found in our air) are randomly arranged. Contrast this with a cell: not only does a cell have a macroscopic structure, but its microscopic constituents are tightly constrained to specific arrangements. A hurricane is not in the least destroyed by flying an airplane through it (I don’t recommend trying this), but a cell’s functionality would be irreparably damaged by inserting a microscopic needle into the cell and breaking up its internal molecular structure. No matter how long you wait, the molecules within the cell will not reform after they have been broken up.

Could it be that part of the reason many scientists accept that evolution is true is that they have not been taught the limitations of natural forces to increase the functional complexity (and thereby the information content) of an unorganized arrangement of atoms? For, producing a living cell is almost an atom-by-atom process. 

Human construction projects proceed by intelligently interconnecting macroscopic arrangements of atoms, with each component of what we’re building (whether it’s a skyscraper or a cell phone) consisting of trillions upon trillions of atoms. We know that natural forces could not possibly succeed in manufacturing any of our technological products, but when it comes to the molecular scale, we disregard this wisdom and assume that natural forces can manufacture a living cell that far exceeds the complexity of any artificial product. 

We don’t directly perceive how the electric force between atoms causes chemical reactions to proceed, and by virtue of that ignorance, we might imagine their abilities to be practically unlimited. We also have some conception of the vast numbers of atoms in a chemical soup, so perhaps we conclude that any lack of systematic productive prowess is made up for by the brute force of rapidly repeated efforts. Again, ignorance bewitches us, since not many scientists, and very few non-scientists, are aware of the magnitude of the combinatorial options for producing the large, functional biomolecules of life. Even with the large number of random attempts in a chemical soup to form a specific, functional molecule, the number of ways to go wrong always mounts up exponentially to defeat production of the necessary outcome.

Another Factor — Openness

One other factor comes into play that rivets some people to the evolutionary viewpoint: openness, or the lack of it. The only way someone can change his mind is to have a willingness to examine the relevant evidence objectively. Not just to scrutinize it for a way to bolster presuppositions, but to be willing to evaluate it as possibly supporting the deconstruction of one’s viewpoint. This willingness to face reality is important no matter what position we hold. 

In the pursuit of truth, freedom is ultimately at stake. Believing a falsehood may be comfortable — temporarily. The issue with evolution may not matter if we are just “accidents of nature,” having no future or hope beyond the grave. But one of the strong truths at stake in the debate over evolution is our ultimate significance as more than animated matter. For us as designed beings, at least in my view, the outcome of our belief may have an impact for eternity. 

Saturday, 8 June 2024

When your "friends" are a bigger danger than your enemies.

 

A technology indistinguishable from magic?

 Our Universe Works … Yet Doesn’t Make Sense; How Could That Be?


Prominent science writer John Horgan finds himself stumped (and somewhat vexed?) by quantum mechanics — the behavior of the fundamental particles of the universe:

Quantum principles underpin our modern scientific worldview and much of our technology, including the laptop on which I’m writing these words. And yet a century after its invention, physicists and philosophers cannot agree on what quantum mechanics means.

JOHN HORGAN, “QUANTUM MECHANICS, PLATO’S CAVE AND THE BLIND PIRANHA,” CROSS-CHECK, MAY 22, 2024

He Has a Point

How can so much uncertainty lie placidly at the basis of our universe but disrupt nothing in particular? In fact, as he says, we build better computers using its principles. Why doesn’t fundamental uncertainty cause us to build worse ones or nothing at all?

Horgan, author of My Quantum Experiment (2023), takes this disjunction personally:

I’m blindly thrashing about for insights, epiphanies, revelations. Every now and then I think I’ve grasped some slippery truth, but my satisfaction is always fleeting. Sooner or later, I end up bouncing off an invisible barrier. I don’t really know what’s going on. I’m in the dark.

HORGAN, “QUANTUM MECHANICS, PLATO’S CAVE AND THE BLIND PIRANHA”

Horgan Is Certainly Not Alone

The greatest scientists who tackled quantum mechanics are as much in the dark as the prominent science writer, if that’s any help. For example,

“For those who are not shocked when they first come across quantum theory cannot possibly have understood it.” —Niels Bohr (1885–1962), in 1952, quoted by Werner Heisenberg (1971), Physics and Beyond. (New York: Harper and Row), p. 206.
“I think I can safely say that nobody understands quantum mechanics” — Richard Feynman (1918–1988), YouTube Video clip from his 1964 Messenger lecture series at Cornell University.

“No other theory of the physical world has caused such consternation as quantum theory, for no other theory has so completely overthrown the previously cherished concepts of classical physics and our everyday apprehension of reality.” — Peter Atkins in Foreword to Beyond Measure (2004), by Jim Baggott.
“Quantum mechanics was, and continues to be, revolutionary, primarily because it demands the introduction of radically new concepts to better describe the world.” — Nobelist Alain Aspect, “Introduction: John Bell and the second quantum revolution” in J. S. Bell, Speakable and Unspeakable in Quantum Mechanics (2nd ed, 2004), by John Stuart Bell (1928–1990).
Albert Einstein (1879–1955) never accepted quantum mechanics, and spent much of his career opposing it: “Quantum mechanics is certainly imposing. But an inner voice tells me that it is not yet the real thing. The theory says a lot, but does not really bring us any closer to the secret of the ‘old one.’ I, at any rate, am convinced that He does not throw dice.” — Letter to Max Born (4 December 1926); The Born-Einstein Letters (translated by Irene Born) (Walker and Company, New York, 1971).
Note: Einstein apparently believed in the idea of God espoused by philosopher Baruch Spinoza (1632–1677), and that is what he seems to mean by the “old one.”

So How Can the Universe Be Like This?
The most reasonable theory of how the universe can be both uncertain at its base yet reliable in everyday life is the least popular one: As atheist mathematician and astronomer Fred Hoyle (1915–2001) reluctantly suggested, “A common-sense interpretation of the facts suggests that a superintellect has monkeyed with physics, as well as chemistry and biology, and that there are no blind forces worth speaking about in nature.” 

If so, we can understand some of the universe created by a greater intelligence but perhaps not all of it, or at least not at present.

That points in the direction of deism or theism — an impersonal or personal God. It was what caused lifetime atheist philosopher Antony Flew (1923–2010) to conclude toward the end of his life that There Is a God. (HarperOne, 2007). And that’s hard to discuss casually today. The problem isn’t that the scientists who think that there is a God are proceeding without evidence. Rather, because theirs is an unpopular perspective, they might be canceled even if they have plenty of evidence. Even if evidence, in the form of further discoveries of the fine-tuning of the universe, is piling up… One way of describing a situation like that is intellectual stagnation. 

Note: In his essay, Horgan compares himself to a “blind piranha” that he once saw. It could find and eat minnows that were thrown to it but it really had no idea of its surroundings (an aquarium in a bar).

Friday, 7 June 2024

Comic book science?

 Fossil Friday: No, Magnetic Field Collapse Did Not Trigger the Emergence of Animals


In previous articles about the sudden appearance of the Ediacaran biota (Avalon Explosion) and the sudden appearance of animal body plans in the Cambrian Explosion, I discussed the common strategy in evolutionary biology to make up fancy just-so-stories to allegedly explain these striking events in the history of life, without proposing any causally adequate mechanism for the actual origin of biological novelty. A popular idea is that increased oxygen content played a significant role in the origin of complex life (see Bechly 2023a).

Now, a new study by Huang et al. (2024) in the Nature journal Communications Earth & Environment suggests that a near-collapse of the Earth’s magnetic field in the Ediacaran caused an increased oxygenation of the atmosphere and thereby allowed a diversification of macroscopic and mobile animals of the Ediacara fauna. The press release from the University of Rochester (2024) even more boldly asked “Did a magnetic field collapse trigger the emergence of animals?” and claimed that the “researchers uncovered compelling evidence” that “a weak magnetic field millions of years ago may have fueled the proliferation of life.” Media reports (e.g., Pappas 2024) as usual enthusiastically promoted this claim with headlines like “Earth’s Magnetic Field ‘Near-Collapse’ Boosted Evolution, Scientists Think” by Newsweek (Thomson 2024). Let’s for a moment ignore the fact that the identification of the Ediacaran biota as early animal fauna is a hotly debated issue even in mainstream paleobiology (see by numerous Evolution News articles debunking alleged Ediacaran animals with peer reviewed science). Let’s also ignore the staggering amount of unscientific imaginative speculation that is evident from the use of formulations like “may have” or “may be” not less than ten times in the press report by Pappas (2024). Let’s just look at the actual findings and claims of the new study.

What the Study Claims

The scientists had studied the preserved magnetization in ancient feldspar crystals from southern Brazil and describe evidence that the geomagnetic field was 30 times weaker in the Ediacaran compared to today’s level. This low level allegedly lasted for about 26 million years. The authors propose that:

A weak magnetic field makes it easier for charged particles from the sun to strip away lightweight atoms such as hydrogen from the atmosphere, causing them to escape into space. If hydrogen loss is significant, more oxygen may remain in the atmosphere instead of reacting with hydrogen to form water vapor. These reactions can lead to a buildup of oxygen over time.

(UNIVERSITY OF ROCHESTER 2024)
Smithsonian Magazine (Wu 2024) commented:

Earth’s Magnetic Field Nearly Collapsed 600 Million Years Ago. Then, Weird and Complex Life Evolved … A new study suggests more solar radiation reached Earth while the magnetic field weakened, leading to a rise in oxygen that drove an explosion of multicellular organisms during the Ediacaran Period. … this near-disaster may have actually been the key to a burst of evolution.

The authors also believe that oxygen is “a key ‘environmental gatekeeper‘, allowing for evolutionary innovation” and say that “multiple lines of geochemical evidence point to a possible increase in atmospheric and oceanic O2 levels in the late Ediacaran Period.” The latter claim indeed was a scientific consensus and textbook wisdom for many decades. So far so good.

A Fly in the Ointment

There is a little fly in the ointment though that spoils this whole just-so-story. Last year a sensational study by Ostrander et al. (2023) decisively refuted all earlier claims of a correlation of the Ediacaran Avalon Explosion with an increased oxygen content and instead found the very opposite with widespread seafloor anoxia. I reported about this surprising discovery in a previous Fossil Friday article last year (Bechly 2023a) and further elaborated the issue in a podcast (Bechly 2023b).

The authors of the new study do not seem to be aware of this crucial discovery at all, as the Ostrander paper is not even cited by them. This is yet another failure of the peer review system, which apparently only works when it can censor inconvenient challenges to mainstream paradigms (Sewell 2013, Bechly 2024a, 2024c), but not when it should do what it is supposed to do, i.e., ensure high scientific standards. The whole foundation of the new study’s main conclusion is a house of cards built on quicksand. Their hypothesis is dead in the water because there simply was no Ediacaran oxygenation.

But even in the counterfactual case that it were true that the abrupt appearance of the Ediacaran biota in the Avalon Explosion would correlate with oxygenation due to a geomagnetic field collapse, this would of course not explain the origin of biological novelty with new proteins, new tissues. new organs, and new body plans. It might have been a necessary condition for the emergence of complex multicellular organisms, but certainly not a sufficient condition. You find this simple logical error all too often in evolutionary story telling (see Bechly 2023a, 2024b). But in this case the point is moot anyway, because in fact the correlation turned out to be simply non-existent.

Another Interesting Point

But there is another interesting point concerning the geomagnetic field that is mentioned by John Tarduno (quoted in Wu 2024) from the University of Rochester, who is the lead researcher and corresponding author of the new study:

The solidification of the inner core was also a crucial event for the evolution of life — it allowed Earth’s magnetic field to regain its strength and protect the planet’s water from being entirely eroded by solar radiation. … We need the Earth’s magnetic field to preserve water on the planet, …

This of course adds to the many points of fine-tuning that make Earth a privileged planet that can uniquely sustain life, and therefore is part of a cumulative case for design.

References



Darwin under the microscope?

 

On the arrival of the fittest.

 The Junk Shop of Andreas Wagner


This is the second part of a review of Sleeping Beauties: The Mystery of Dormant Innovations in Nature and Culture, by Andreas Wagner (2023). The first part is here.

After rehashing some old arguments for why Darwinian evolution must have occurred, Dr. Wagner moves on to his own, more original, arguments for how it might have happened. Unlike some evolutionary biologists, he is willing to admit that Darwin’s theory does not explain the “arrival of the fittest.” Instead, he has his own theories. 

But before getting into that, Wagner devotes some time to elucidating what he calls the “old fashioned” (yet post-Darwinian) explanation for the arrival of the fittest, formulated by the French biologist François Jacob.

Argument 3: Co-Option Can Explain the Origin of Complex Structures

Summing up Jacob’s hypothesis, Wagner writes:
             [E]volution is like a tinkerer with a huge workshop full of junk, devices in various states of assembly and repair, gizmos with half-forgotten uses, and countless tools just as likely to be working as to be broken. And like a tinkerer, evolution modifies, fiddles and plays with these parts, assembling them into ever-new contraptions, gadgets, and molecular machines.

The junk-shop tinkerer is an (unintentionally) apt metaphor, for two reasons. First, because the re-useable junk was already made by an intelligent designer in the first place (good luck “tinkering around” in, say, a sand pit!); and second, because the act of recombining junk into new machines itself requires intelligent design. 

The co-option argument is a good explanation for how a large number of complex biological machines might be aggregated in a single system, but it doesn’t explain how each of those machines developed. That’s because the basic quality of a complex machine is that it requires the coordination of several pieces to perform a single function — which is why Behe has argued that complex machines cannot arise through a gradual, stepwise process. The pieces could be co-opted from elsewhere, but that would not provide the necessary information regarding how the pieces must interact to make a complex machine, which was the main problem in the place.    

The fundamental dilemma is this: whenever you co-opt any part from an old system and put it in a new system, there are two possibilities. If (1) the co-opted part itself was complex, then that original complexity is left unexplained; but if (2) it was not complex, then the co-opted part does little to explain the complexity of the system it was co-opted into. For example, neither (1) “The GPS system in this car was taken from a helicopter!” nor (2) “The screws in this car were taken from a helicopter!” does much to explain the complexity found in the car, even if the explanations are true.

There is direct negative correlation at work here: the more complexity in the new system the co-option explains, the less complexity in the source system it explains. In other words, you’re just shuffling information around. And as information theorists like William Dembski can tell you, that will never give you new information — there’s no free lunch. 

So the co-option argument amounts to nothing. It’s like if a child asked, “Where do toys come from?” and got the reply, “From the toy store.” This might be a satisfying answer to a child, because (so they say) children are prone to magical thinking. But it shouldn’t be satisfying to an adult scientist.

Argument 4: There’s More Than One Way to Skin (or Build) A Cat

This is not Wagner’s star argument, however. Although he does agree that evolution is like a tinkerer in a junk shop, he says that Jacob was “dead wrong” in thinking that evolution cannot make new genes from scratch (i.e., “de novo genes”). Wagner writes that Jacob can’t be blamed for his false assumption, because he was writing in the days before genomics. He goes on to say:

One can hardly blame Jacob for arguing against de novo genes, because a gene really is a very special stretch of DNA. It has complex features that Jacob knew well — he had discovered some of them — and whose origin is hard to imagine. [Here follows a lengthy description of the complexity required for a single functioning gene.] …Given these requirements, it’s hard to imagine indeed that a gene could emerge from scratch. 

Hard to imagine, but still true… Comparing an ever-increasing number of genomes resulted in many discoveries, but none more mystifying than this one: every newly sequenced genome contained hundreds to thousands of genes whose DNA was unique, bearing no resemblance to DNA in any other organism. Such genes were called orphans. 

Now, an outside observer might say that this is a classic case of a hypothesis being tested and falling short. The hypothesis of unguided, incremental evolution resulted in the prediction that de novo genes would be impossible. In Jacob’s words, as Wagner quotes him: “The probability that a functional protein would appear de novo by random association of amino acids is practically zero.” So if evolution was unguided, it must have built genes slowly, from other genes; we wouldn’t expect to find any de novo genes. 

It was a reasonable prediction. Yet genomics proved that prediction wrong.

Normally, when a hypothesis fails to make successful predictions, that means the hypothesis should be discarded. But some hypotheses are too big to fail. For these privileged hypotheses, when the predictions don’t pan out, rather than ditch the hypothesis, you think and think until you come up with some explanation for why the prediction failed. 

So what’s the new explanation? Wagner argues that de novo genes might be individually unlikely, but they are not unlikely in aggregate. That’s because there are so many possible genes. Any given gene might be astronomically improbable, but there are also an astronomically large number of possible viable genes — so getting some gene that fulfills a given need is not unlikely. 

This is a clever argument, in my opinion. At least, unlike most anti-Behean arguments, it doesn’t fall apart at the level of basic logic. To see the problem with it, you have to think a bit deeper. 

So let’s return to the junk-yard analogy. Imagine that you are walking through a junkyard with your friend (as one does), and you come across what appears to be a fully functioning car. 

“I wonder why they left a perfectly good car here?” you say.

“Maybe they didn’t,” says your friend. “There are lots of usable parts here, and this is tornado country. Maybe a tornado picked them up and combined them into a car.” 

“That doesn’t seem very probable,” you point out.

“Does it not?” your friend replies. “Think about it: there’s more than one way to build an automobile. It could have three wheels, for example. Or six. Or, why not 1,000 little wheels? Or legs, like a spider. Or it could bounce on springs! When you think about it, the number of ways to make a device of locomotion is probably infinite, or practically infinite at least. With that many options, the chances of making an automobile can’t be very low. And anyhow, we know the odds must not be prohibitively low, because — there’s the automobile!”  

Forgetting for a moment that this is an analogy — would you find this argument convincing, or not?

Of course you wouldn’t. That’s because you intuitively know a strange truth about math: that infinity is not the largest number. 

Even if something has infinite opportunities to occur, that does not mean it is likely to occur. Why? Because each one of those infinite possibilities of success might come with its own sea of infinite possibilities of failure. Infinity squared, or times infinity is much larger than infinity. Think of an infinite plane versus an infinite line; despite both being infinite, one is clearly larger than the other in a very real and practical sense.  

Think of it another way. Imagine you throw a dart at the natural number line. The odds of hitting any integer with infinite precision (that is, 2.00000…000 with zeroes repeating to infinity, rather than 2.00000….00013 or anything like that) is infinitely small. That is true even though there are an infinite number of integers to hit! Each integer is infinitely small and has an infinite number of non-integer possibilities on each side, so the fact that you are aiming at an infinite sea of integers does not make hitting one any more than infinitesimally probable. 

In the example of the automobile from the junk-yard tornado, you intuitively knew that getting any sort of automobile is unlikely, no matter how many potential sorts there are. It does not matter if there are literally infinite ways to make an automobile, because there are (give or take) infinity-squared ways of not making one.

The only relevant difference between this hypothetical scenario and the real scenario in question with molecular machines is that molecule machines are far more complex than automobiles. There is no reason to consider them more likely to form by chance in a cell than an automobile is likely to form by chance in a junkyard. Even the vast age and size of the universe doesn’t make a dent in the unlikeliness of it. 

Wagner has discovered the interesting fact that there are many ways to make a complex system, and is unduly impressed by this fact. It’s not actually that revolutionary of an idea. Anyone could have guessed that there would be nearly infinite ways to arrange, say, a metabolic pathway, or a bacterial motor—there’s always more than one way to skin a cat, as they say. 

But there are far, far more ways to fail to skin a cat. 

The Thrall of the Zeitgeist

In the later part of the book, Wagner moves on from evolution to examples of Sleeping Beauties in human culture. He writes: 

We heard that innovations come easily to evolution. They come just as easily to culture, and multiple discoveries are exhibit A for this claim. The wheel, discovered in the new and in the old world, is only one among hundreds of examples. Even more ancient is agriculture. It has at least eleven independent origins…The pendulum clock was invented at least three different times, the thermometer seven times, the telegraph four times and the radar six times.

The thing is…cultural innovation is easy because of the intelligent minds behind it. The comparison is (again, unintentionally) quite rich. 

If Wagner had felt like it, he could have just as easily made his book into an argument for intelligent design, rather than against it. Wagner makes no controversy about the basic facts: irreducible complexity, vastly improbably sequences in genes, etc. His arguments against design all amount to rhetorical glosses and strange contortions of reasoning. 

It’s a shame. The book, as I’ve said, is truly delightful, and there’s no reason it had to be marred by naturalist blustering against a theory Wagner can’t be bothered to understand. Wagner is obviously a man of great intelligence, curiosity, and erudition. It’s a shame he doesn’t let those qualities shine through when he’s taking up the task of debating the most important questions of life. 

It’s a shame, but it isn’t shocking. Wagner wouldn’t be the first otherwise intelligent and curious person to suddenly lose interest in rational exploration of ideas when it comes to intelligent design. It happens all the time.

The cause of that isn’t so strange. In fact, it’s something that Wagner highlights in his book. Wagner writes that one reason that Sleeping Beauties stay asleep for so long is that people are prevented from appreciating them by the mind-numbing power of the Zeitgeist, the “spirit of the age.” Every age has its own spirit, and any idea that contradicts the spirit of the age is doomed to obscurity — at least, until the age changes.

What’s the antidote? Once again, Wagner has the answer in his book: stop worrying about what others think, and pursue the object of your passion for its own sake.

It’s good advice, and I hope Dr. Wagner will follow it when it comes to the ultimate question of his field. He seems to want to; he just needs to go all the way. If he does, he may ultimately reject ID or affirm it — but at least he will have to give it a fair hearing, not the cursory glance and mishmash of half-arguments he served up in this book.