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Tuesday, 17 November 2020

The Divided States of America?

 Time for red America and blue America to part ways?



How to split the USA into two countries: Red and Blue

Progressive America would be half as big, but twice as populated as its conservative twin.

How to split the USA into two countries: Red and Blue
Image: Dicken Schrader
  • America's two political tribes have consolidated into 'red' and 'blue' nations, with seemingly irreconcilable differences.
  • Perhaps the best way to stop the infighting is to go for a divorce and give the two nations a country each
  • Based on the UN's partition plan for Israel/Palestine, this proposal provides territorial contiguity and sea access to both 'red' and 'blue' America

If more proof were needed that the U.S. is two nations in one, it was offered by the recent mid-term elections. Democrats swept the House, but Republicans managed to increase their Senate majority. There is less middle ground, and less appetite for compromise, than ever.

To oversimplify America's electoral divide: Democrats win votes in urban, coastal areas; Republicans gain seats in the rural middle of the country. Those opposing blocs have consolidated into 'red' and 'blue' states decades ago.

Occasionally, and often after tight-run presidential elections, that divide is translated into a cartographic meme that reflects the state of the nation.

Jesusland vs. the U.S. of Canada

Canada annexes the entire West Coast and borders Mexico.

Image: Strange Maps

In 2004, this cartoon saw the states that had voted for Democratic presidential candidate John F. Kerry join America's northern neighbor to form the United States of Canada. The states re-electing George W. Bush were dubbed Jesusland.

Trumpistan vs. Clintonesia

Trumpistan is a perforated continent, Clintonesia is a disjointed archipelago.

Image: The New York Times.

In 2016, these two maps disassembled the U.S. into Trumpistan, a vast, largely empty and severely punctuated land mass; and Clintonesia, a much smaller but more densely populated archipelago whose biggest bits of dry land were at the edges, with a huge, empty sea in the middle.

Soyland vs. the FSA

Following state borders, a line separates 'red' America (in the south) from the 'blue' half of the country.

Image: Jesse Kelly

Writing in The Federalist, Jesse Kelly in April this year likened America to a couple that can't stop fighting and should get a divorce. Literally. His proposal was to split the country into two new ones: a 'red' state and a 'blue' state.

On a map accompanying the article, he proposed a division of the U.S. into the People's Republic of Soyland and the Federalist States of America (no prizes for guessing Mr Kelly's politics).

It's a fairly crude map. For example, it includes Republican-leaning states such as Montana and the Dakotas in the 'blue' state for seemingly no other reason than to provide a corridor between the blue zones in the west and east of the country.

Mr Kelly admitted that his demarcational talents left some room for improvement: "We can and will draw the map and argue over it a million different ways for a million different reasons but draw it we must," he wrote. "I suspect the final draft would look similar (to mine)."

Partition, Palestine-style

A county-level division between red and blue, with contiguous territories for both.

Image: Dicken Schrader.

"No, this map won't do," comments reader Dicken Schrader. "It's too crude and would leave too many members of the 'blue' tribe in the 'red' nation, and too much 'red' in the 'blue' state."

Agreeing with the basic premise behind Mr Kelly's map but not with its crude execution, Mr Schrader took it upon himself to propose a better border between red and blue.

Analyzing election maps from the past 12 years, he devised his own map of America's two nations, "inspired by the original UN partition map for Israel and Palestine from 1947." Some notes on the map:

  • To avoid the distortions of gerrymandering, it is based on electoral majorities in counties, rather than electoral districts.
  • As with the UN partition plan for Israel/Palestine, all territories of both states are contiguous. There are no enclaves. Citizens of either state can travel around their nation without having to cross a border.
  • The intersections between both nations are placed at actual interstate overpasses, so both states have frictionless access to their own territory.
  • In order to avoid enclaves, some 'blue' islands had to be transferred to 'red', and some 'red' zones were granted to the 'blue' nation. "This exchange is fair to both sides, in terms of area and population".
  • Both nations have access to the East, West and Gulf Coasts, and each has a portion of Alaska.

​Red vs. blue

Washington DC would remain part of 'blue' America, and its capital.

Image: Dicken Schrader

Some interesting stats on these two new nations:

Progressive America (blue)

  • Area: 1.44 million sq. mi (3.74 million km2), 38% of the total U.S.
  • Population: 210 million, 64.5% of the total U.S.
  • Pop. Density: 146 inhabitants/sq mi (56/km2), similar to Mexico
  • Capital: Washington DC
  • Ten Largest Cities: New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix, Philadelphia, San Antonio, San Diego, San Jose, Jacksonville

Conservative America (red)

  • Area: 2.35 million sq. mi (6.08 million km2), 62% of the total
  • Population: 115.4 million, 35.5% of the total
  • Pop. Density: 49 inhabitants/sq mi (19/km2), similar to Sudan
  • Capital: Dallas
  • Ten Largest Cities: Dallas, Austin, Fort Worth, Charlotte, Nashville, Oklahoma City, Louisville, Kansas City, Omaha, Colorado Springs.

What about the nukes?

The partition would not create enclaves, but allow citizens of either nation frictionless access to the entire territory of their state.

Image: Dicken Schrader

'Blue' America would be roughly half the size of 'red' America but have almost double the population.

In terms of area, 'blue' America would be the 13th-largest country in the world, larger than Mexico but smaller than Saudi Arabia. 'Red' America would be the 6th-largest country in the world, larger than India but smaller than Australia.

In terms of population, 'blue' America would now be the 5th-most populous county in the world, with more population than Brazil but less than Indonesia. 'Red' America would be the 12th, with more population than Ethiopia but less than Japan.

For those who think this divorce would end the argument between both tribes, consider that both countries would still have to live next to each other. And then there's the question of the kids. Or, in Mr Schrader's translation to geopolitics: "Who gets the nukes?"

--

Many thanks to Mr Schrader for sending in this map.

Strange Maps #948

Got a strange map? Let me know at strangemaps@gmail.com.

Yes, more and more young adults are living with their parents – but is that necessarily bad?

Having grown kids still at home is not likely to do you, or them, any permanent harm.

 
Photo by Parker Gibbons on Unsplash

When the Pew Research Center recently reported that the proportion of 18-to-29-year-old Americans who live with their parents has increased during the COVID-19 pandemic, perhaps you saw some of the breathless headlines hyping how it's higher than at any time since the Great Depression.

 Keep reading

What ended the Black Death, history's worst pandemic

The bubonic plague ravaged the world for centuries, killing up to 200 million people.

 

A man dresses as a plague doctor at the Bannockburn Live event on June 28, 2014 in Stirling, Scotland.

Photo by Peter Macdiarmid/Getty Images
  • The Plague was the worst pandemic in history, killing up to 200 million people.
  • The disease spread through air, rats and fleas, and decimated Europe for several centuries.
  • The pandemic eased with better sanitation, hygiene, and medical advancements but never completely disappeared.
  •  Keep reading
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    Saturday, 1 August 2020

    Prophet of the new gods?

    How Much of Today’s Anarchic Nihilism Can Be Laid at Darwin’s Feet?

     David Klinghoffer

     

     

    There’s a pervasive sense afoot that something has gone wrong, in a very serious way, in our culture. Just in 2020, problems that were of, let’s say, an outpatient nature in their gravity have gone to full-scale emergency — a cytokine storm of trouble, is one way of putting it. But why? I’ve watched the once-beautiful city where I live, Seattle, pummeled by violent protests, the police undermined by those above them in the government. The city watches endless chaos as the mob rampages, and no one in authority seems willing to stop it. Neighboring Portland is worse. Such things are happening across the country. It is anguishing. 

    What Is Going On?

    We’ve seen things that were previously unheard of. A random example: as others have pointed out, you may have noticed from the videos of urban anarchy that it’s now women, not just young men, who are assaulting police officers and otherwise creating mayhem. It used to be that males had a monopoly on protest violence. Not anymore. What drives the astonishing anarchism, the nihilism of the young? What has drained the confidence of the adults, who should be the ones acting to assert order?
    That there might be something unique, exalted, and worth defending about human lives, about our traditions of moral and spiritual belief, about institutions like marriage or the family or about property, about our freedom or our equal dignity, about our privileged place in the cosmos — all these ideas, once agreed on across the culture, are eroding, with a gathering speed, before our eyes.

    A Powerful Myth that Shapes Us

    Of course I’m not saying everything can be laid to Darwin’s feet. But see how much nihilism has been justified and advocated by some very smart and influential people in the name of evolutionary theory. This is not just a scientific theory of biological origins. It’s a powerful myth. That observation alone doesn’t make Darwinism false science. A myth could be true. It only means that Darwinism conveys a vision of reality that can’t help but shape us deep within. The malignancy of it has been building for more than a century and a half. Something wrong in the way Americans are shaped reached a critical threshold this year.
    If you want to understand how that happened, because you want to know how it could be reversed, it’s not possible without considering the role of evolution advocacy, which begins in school and continues to bombard us into adulthood. Take three minutes and see if you agree with me.


    Wednesday, 8 July 2020

    On the boundaries of evolution.

    Mistakes Our Critics Make: Limits of Evolutionary Processes

     Brian Miller

     

     

    In previous articles, I demonstrated how substantial quantities of biological information cannot emerge through any natural process (see here and here), and I described how such information points to intelligent design. Now, I am addressing the mistakes typically made by critics who challenge these claims (see here, here, here, and here). See my post from Wednesday, here, on misapplying information theory; and yesterday, here, on misinterpreting research related to protein rarity.
    Another very common error is to assume that evolutionary processes can generate large quantities of new information. Often evolutionists appeal to such mechanisms as gene duplication, lateral gene transfer, gene fusion, gene fission, and de novo origination. Unfortunately, no hard evidence exists that either these or any other mechanism can produce more than inconsequential amounts. In contrast, all experiments and all studies on the genetic variation in species demonstrate that natural processes either degrade information or only make trivial modifications to it, and arguments to the contrary consistently rely on circular reasoning (see here, here, here, and here). 

    Small Targets in an Immense Space

    The fundamental challenge is that viable proteins and other biological structures represent fantastically small targets in an immense space of possibilities. And, no mechanism or search strategy can substantially increase the efficiency of finding a target above that of a random search. This conclusion has been proven by the No Free Lunch theorems and the research I described in my previous article (see here and here). 
    To fully appreciate the challenge, imagine taking the text of Macbeth and attempting to rearrange and duplicate sentences and randomly change letters until the first few sentences of the book Lord of the Flies appears. Generating such a large quantity of new information would be impossible by any undirected means. For the same reason, the chance of any novel protein evolving with a complexity comparable to or greater than β-lactamase is beyond remote. 
    Moreover, the evolution of many novel complex traits, such as echo location in whales, requires the modification or creation of numerous proteins, physical structures, and neural connections. Such a feat is only possible through intelligent design.

    Monday, 29 June 2020

    On the origin of information.

    The Information Enigma: A Closer Look

     Brian Miller

     

     

    The first video in our Intelligent Design YouTube Festival, “The Information Enigma,” consolidates the research and writing of Stephen Meyer and Douglas Axe into a 21-minute video. The presentation demonstrates how the information present in life points unambiguously to intelligent design. This topic is central to intelligent design arguments and the ID research program. Here I will flesh out in greater detail the concept of biological information, and I will explain why significant quantities of it cannot be generated through natural processes. 

    A Primer on Information

    A pioneer in the field of information theory was Claude Shannon who connected the concept of information to the reduction in uncertainty and to probability. As an example, knowing the five-digit ZIP Code for an address eliminates uncertainty about a building’s location. And, the four-digit extension to the ZIP Code provides additional information that reduces the uncertainty even further. Conversely, randomly generating the correct five-digit ZIP Code corresponds to a probability of 1 in 100,000, while generating the correct nine-digit ZIP Code corresponds to a probability of 1 in a billion. The latter is much less probable, so the nine-digit code contains more information. 

    Shannon quantified the amount of information in a pattern in what he defined as the Shannon measure of information. In the simplest case, the quantity is proportional to the log of 1/p, where p is the probability of a pattern occurring by chance. For the five-digit code, p would be 1/100,000, and 1/p would be 100,000. This measure can be thought of as the minimal number of answers to Yes-No questions that would be required to identify 1 out of N choices. To illustrate, imagine attempting to identify a pre-chosen famous actor out of eight possible people. If the answer to each question about the mystery individual eliminated half of the options, the correct answer could be determined with three questions. Therefore, learning the answer corresponds to acquiring 3 bits of information. Note that 2 to the power of 3 is 8, or conversely, log (base 2) of 8 is 3. 

    Information and Biology

    Information theory has been applied to biology by such figures as Hubert Yockey. In this context, Shannon’s definition had to be modified to distinguish between arbitrary patterns and those that performed some function. Shannon’s measure was modified to quantify “functional information.” The measure of functional information corresponds to the probability of a random pattern achieving some target goal. For instance, if 1 in 1024 amino acid sequences formed a structure that accelerated a specific reaction, the functional information associated with that sequence would equate to 10 bits since 10 Yes-No questions would have to be asked to select 1 entity out of 1024 possibilities. 

    Mathematically, 2 to the power of 10 is 1024, or log (base 2) of 1024 is 10. More advanced measures for functional information have been developed including algorithmic specified complexity and the more generalized canonical specified complexity. They follow the same basic logic. These measures help relate the information content of biological molecules and structures to their functional capacities. 

    Information and Proteins

    The information content of a protein’s amino acid sequence directly relates to its ability to control chemical reactions or other processes. In general, the higher the information content, the higher the level of fine-grained control over outcomes and the greater the capacity for elaborate molecular manipulations. For amino acid sequences with higher information content are more specified, so they can fold into three-dimensional shapes of greater precision and complexity. In turn, the higher specificity requirement corresponds to proteins being more susceptible to mutations — a few amino acid changes will often completely disable them. Functional sequences are consequently less probable, which is another signature of greater information content. This connection between information, sequence rarity, and complexity of function has profound implications for Doug Axe’s protein research. 
    Axe demonstrated that the probability for a random amino acid sequence to fold into one section (domain) of a functional β-lactamase protein is far too small for it to ever occur by chance. Therefore, the information content is too great to originate through a random search. Yet β-lactamase performs the relatively simple task of breaking apart an antibiotic molecule. In contrast, many of the proteins required for the origin of life perform much more complex operations (see here, here, and here). 

     The same holds true for many proteins required in the construction of new groups of organisms (e.g., animal phyla). Therefore, these proteins’ information content must be even greater. So the probability of their originating through a random search is even smaller. 

    Information and Design

    This conclusion is deeply problematic for evolutionary theory since no natural process can generate quantities of information substantially larger than what could result from a random search. 
    The limitation results from No Free Lunch theorems as demonstrated by the research of Robert J. Marks, Winston Ewert, and William Dembski (see here and here). It is further supported by theorems derived from research in computer science. For instance, computer scientist Leonid Levin demonstrated the “conservation of independence” in information-bearing systems. He stated the following
    The information I(x:y) has a remarkable invariance; it cannot be increased by random or deterministic (recursive) processing of x or y. This is natural, since if x contains no information about y then there is little hope to find out something about y by processing x. (Torturing an uninformed witness cannot give information about the crime!)
    The conservation law simply means that the information, I(x:y), present in one system, x, coinciding with another, y, cannot increase through any natural process. A nearly identical conclusion comes from information theory in what is known as the data processing inequality. It states that the information content of a signal cannot be increased by any local physical operation. 

    In terms of evolution, the first system (the signal) could be a duplicated gene or a nonfunctional section of DNA freely mutating, and the second could be any functional protein sequence into which the gene/section could potentially evolve. The theorems mandate that a DNA sequence (x) could never appreciably increase in functional information, such as more greatly resembling a new enzyme (y). This constraint makes the evolution of most novel proteins entirely implausible. 

    In the video, Stephen Meyer 6explains how information points to intelligent design by the same logic used in the historical sciences. In addition, the information processing machinery of life demonstrates unmistakable evidence of foresight, coordination, and goal direction. And, these signatures unambiguously point to intelligent agency. The same arguments hold true to an even greater degree for the origin of life. 
    The only pressing question is to what extent critics can continue to allow their philosophical bias to override biological information’s clear design implications.